2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs there a voting clock out there in the series of tubes anywhere? What % votes cast so far?
As I see the much needed GOTV messaging, and because I've already voted, I'd like to know how far along the election actually is. Many of us have, and for us GOTV is past, we have voted already two weeks out. So, I'd also like to see a clock of sorts until election day showing what percent and actual numbers of those votes cast.[center]
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Given that turnout varies, we don't know what the final number of votes cast will be. So we wouldn't know, if there were 7 million votes cast now, what percentage of the final vote that would be.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)I'd like all three.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)They put President Obama in a box yesterday to point out that the election was 15 days away.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,750 posts)with early voting in previous elections.
Most people, once they've voted early, or by mail, don't go back to standing in line on election day. So every cycle, the numbers increase. What's unknown is if by the close of polls November 8, the total turnout is significantly larger than in 2012.
As it is, we're getting a lot of reports that early Democratic turnout is up. What we don't know is if it's mainly Dems who are voting early, and a landslide of Republicans will show up November 8, or if many of them will simply stay home.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)It isn't as if i want to predict the vote turnout using early voting, or some other statistical analysis. I want to see some numbers and see what they do tell us relative to previous elections. There are 200,000,000 million registered voters. There's a comparison of some utility.
... national registration now stands at 200,081,377.... more than 50 million new people ... 146.3 million were registered as recently as 2008 ....
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)Coyotl
(15,262 posts)www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data
The United States Elections Project is an information source for the United States electoral system. The mission of the project is to provide timely and accurate election statistics, electoral laws, research reports, and other useful information regarding the United States electoral system. By providing this information, the project seeks to inform the people of the United States on how their electoral system works, how it may be improved, and how they can participate in it.
Early Vote
Leading into some elections, near-real time early voting statistics -- mail ballots or in-person -- are collected for states or localities, where available. Legacy pages provided here almost certainly do not reflect realized totals as data collection typically stops on Election Day.
Year Election
2016 General
2014 General
2012 General
2010 General
2008 General
2016 November General Election Early Voting
Early voting statistics for the 2016 general election. Some data provided here courtesy of the Associated Press Election Research Group. All errors are mine.
Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 9,436,782
Scroll down for a table of statistics on ballots returned and ballots requested or sent.
Analyses
A Brief History of Early Voting
Summary of early voting for the week ending 10/23
Summary
If the election were held today...what am I saying? In many places the election is being held today and for the next two weeks through to November 8. Despite weakness for Clinton in the Midwest, Clinton looks well-positioned in other states Trump still needs for an Electoral College victory. We are entering the crucial in-person early voting period for Democrats. Democrats tend to vote at higher numbers than Republicans during in-person early voting, a behavior that is being born out in critical battleground states like Nevada and North Carolina. There are some clouds in North Carolina, as Democrats stand in long lines created by the opening of fewer polling locations in some key Democratic counties. Will Democrats endure through to Election Day? Will in-person early voting wind up not as favorable for Democrats as it has been in the past? The next two weeks of in-person early voting will tell the tale.
In collaboration with the Associated Press Election Research Group, I disseminate early voting statistics from across the country. I provide snap analyses through Twitter @ElectProject.
Follow Michael P. McDonald on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ElectProject