****** BREAKING ABC NATIONAL TRACKING POLL****** CLINTON 50 TRUMP 38 THE LEAD HOLDS

[DemocratSinceBirth]

[stonecutter357]

1. K&R!

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Excellent

Should be interesting to see how much she wins by. I have a feeling her ground game gets her a couple points alone and she wins by 10+.

[livetohike]

3. Take that Joe and Mika! n/t

[llmart]

4. It has to kill ABC to report this.....

since they've been Hillary bashing since the start and trying to portray Trump as a valid candidate. That goes for all the major TV stations. Hell, CNN is still trying to say it's a horse race.

I am so sick of our mainstream media. This is why I don't have cable and won't get it. I watch the local news/weather and then turn it off.

[NewJeffCT]

9. People also watch train wrecks

and, Trump's campaign has been a train wreck from the start - you'd think they'd be able to promote that as well. "Who will he embarrass or humiliate next?"

[padfun]

24. I'm glad you mentioned it.

The few times I've seen ABC news, it seems like they are tied, and that is recently. When I watched, I would think that they have to be really out of touch or just trying to bend every point towards Trump.

[highplainsdem]

5. Here's a link to the update:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209

Voter preferences in the latest tracking poll, based on four-day results through Sunday night, remain the same as the initial three-day result reported Sunday: 50 percent support Clinton, 38 percent Trump, with 5 percent for Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Jill Stein.

Clinton's 12-point margin over Trump holds at 53 to 41 percent in a two-way matchup, indicating that Johnson and Stein aren’t drawing disproportionately from either of the two major-party candidates.

Other results also hold in a two-way, including for the important element of turnout. Republicans are less likely now than earlier in the campaign to indicate that they intend to vote. Clinton leads by 19 points in turnout among women, while she and Trump are virtually tied among men, reflecting worse results for Trump among all but his core supporters, white men who lack a college degree.

[semby2]

6. Sample

Thank goodness Podesta is still forcing them to "oversample"!

[sarae]

8. lol!!

[sarae]

7. YES!!!!!

[Funtatlaguy]

10. Outlier, unfortunately.

Yesterday's CNN and this mornings NBC polls both have Hillary at plus 5.
Real Clear Politics avg of polls has Hillary plus 5. That is much more realistic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. ABC WAPO is rated A + CNN is rated A - and Survey Monkey is rated C- at 538

ABC WAPO is rated A + CNN is rated A - and Survey Monkey * is rated C- at 538


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/


In 012 CNN was off by four points. ABC/WAPO nailed it:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html




*Survey Monkey is an internet tracker.

[Zynx]

12. RCP includes the garbage of Rasmussen, that LA Times poll, and IDB

None of those polls are methodologically sound. Take those out and she has an 8 point lead. We would expect to see polls where she leads by 5% and some where she leads by 12% if that's right. That's what we see.

[Amimnoch]

13. I'm perfectly content with the garbage polls.

The one thing, imo, that could really hurt us on November 8th is a lower turn out due to fellow Clinton supporters thinking she has it in the bag.

I'm perfectly okay with closer polls that keeps the level of chronic unease high, and the energy to turn out and make damn sure that orange orangutan doesn't get in there.

[Dem2]

14. Agreed

My biggest feeling of unease is that people back off the pedal, thinking it's in the bag.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Huff Po excludes the "garbage polls" and has Clinton up 8

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton


Their aggregate was also much closer in 012 than RCP.

[Chathamization]

17. Yeah, I'm not sure how useful cherrypicking polls is. It's better to use one of the poll aggregator

sites. Trump was cherrypicking a Trump +2 poll the other day (which is now showing Clinton +1, btw). A single poll doesn't tell us much.

RCP and HuffPost are pretty decent. And if people want more prediction oriented places, I find PEC a lot better than 538 (which I haven't been terribly impressed by).

[Demsrule86]

26. No it is not actually...CNN has been down under other polls for sometime

and real clear politics averages some real outliers that are much less for Clinton than other polls. We have seen double digits in many polls...I am thinking we may actually see a wave election.

[sinkingfeeling]

15. It's phony! It's rigged by the phony media!!

So says Trump.

[Gman]

18. This poll is a big outlier

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Says who

Live interview natl polls



Average: C+8.7
Atl./PRRI: C+15
ABC: C+12
Mon.: C+12
NBCWSJ: C+10
CBS: C+9
Selzer C+9
Bg C+8
Fox C+7
Q C+7
IBD T+2















https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/790183967907418112

[Gman]

23. Mate Silver says

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. There are several other models and many of them are more bearish on Trump...

There are several other models and many of them are more bearish on Trump than Nate.

Any way, we are discussing actual polls, not models. Given the margin of error, confidence intervals, and designer effects a 12 point lead in one poll is consistent with a eight point aggregate lead



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton


And Nate give the ABC-WAPO poll an A +:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[jcgoldie]

19. This has to be incorrect

I just read on the jackoff radicals site that Jill Stein is polling at 16%.

[NurseJackie]

21. Oh dear me! :-P What a hoot!!

[NurseJackie]

20. Stein should just DROP OUT! She serves no good purpose at all!

[Funtatlaguy]

27. Here's where I see the race nationally:

Hillary has a solid 45%
Trump has a solid 40%
The remaining 15% will either stay home, vote Johnson, vote Stein, vote a write-in.

[Charles Bukowski]

28. That's nice

What professional A+ rated pollster do you work for?

[Funtatlaguy]

29. Your Mommas

Snark arse