2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLet's say we take the Senate
And pick up 20 House seats.
Does gridlock still remain?
If so is it weakened?
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)Ryan doesn't like Trump,
but Ryan will have to kiss the right wing's butt to keep the Speakership.
lapfog_1
(29,166 posts)for Ryan to remain as Speaker he will need to get Democratic votes.
Yet to be seen how he manages that.
If he yields to the Trump/Nut jobs and someone else is speaker... I think the Repukes will have painted themselves into a corner (nothing will happen, everyone will blame the republicans).
Cosmocat
(14,543 posts)"nothing will happen, everyone will blame republicans"
In my 50 years this has NEVER happened.
They act like assholes and blame the Democrat - Bill, Hillary, BHO, and the country does not hold them accountable.
In fact, it only have gotten worse over time.
They will do jack shit, find some bullshit rationale for it and blame Hillary, the media whores will enable them spewing their bullshit narrative 24-7, democrats will hide in a corner and the country will blame Hillary.
I mean, its been 30+ years going on now of republicans being jackasses and always being the liberals fault.
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Was done before....remove secret holds....the house will be under pressure from several directions especially if 20 seats are lost by the conservatives...
unblock
(51,974 posts)the senate helps us as far as treaties and appointments go (and hopefully we get rid of the supreme court nominee filibuster) but without the house, we still can't get legislation passed.
republicans will not cooperate period.
Hell, there could be a small democratic majority and they probably would not get anything out of the House.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)our side, but Ryan's road forward would be far rougher if we took enough seats to disrupt his ease of obstruction.
Also the far-right kooks in the House GOP caucus don't care much for Ryan and are said to be whispering mutiny.
If we take the Senate, and by enough seats to ensure a party-switch by someone like Joe Manchin, and Clinton-Kaine crush Trump-Pence, the votes are there to fill the Supreme Court vacancy. Pressure would mount on Ryan to get something done instead of obstruct everything that needs doing. It would be a distinctly uncomfortable position for him to be in if the national consensus held that he was the primary obstructionist while at the same time he'd face the vengeful wrath of his party's far-right kooks.
I think we do take the Senate. And the GOP grip on the dialogue is weakened with significant House gains.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)and a few seat majority.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)days ahead of him, seems like.
Which is fine with me.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)saltpoint
(50,986 posts)as much as possible in the House. And I'm serious about wishing that many stressful days be visited on the Speaker. He's earned them.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)The GOP has earned all the bad they get. Paul Ryan will have to end the Hastert rule and give us many concessions.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)in his tenure as Speaker when he decides that it is not a convenient platform from which to run for president.
I could see Ryan stepping down, possibly before January.
Which sounds like good news, except he might go for the governor's chair in Wisconsin -- whether or not Walker runs again.
Cosmocat
(14,543 posts)He is a Republican, so he is wrong on 99% of things and an asshole.
BUT, in the year 2016, as far as republicans go, he is not a complete lunatic scumbag POS.
And, that puts him in a very small minority now.
I guess my point is, they are hitting a critical mass where whoever succeeds him might be an out and out alt right jackass.
That said, you might be right that he could act pre-preemptively and step down.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)notions about self-determination, and it seems to fuel his "vision" of small government.
I think your 99 percent is about right.
We'll have to keep an eye out for what he does next. Certainly he has his eye on the White House at one point or another. How soon and from what platform? I'm pretty clueless on those questions. Ryan is oddly mercurial (even though he looks like he never moves).
FSogol
(45,360 posts)Reporters wrote epitaphs for our party. The remaining Democratic Senators and Congresspeople had to play ball with the GOP. Until Bill Clinton came along, we were mostly out of power. The same thing will happen to the GOP. People like Ryan will need to distance themselves from Trump and company and work out some compromises with us.
William769
(55,124 posts)benld74
(9,889 posts)jpljr77
(1,004 posts)2018 will be grim for Democrats, especially in the Senate. I mean, super bad. So the House isn't going to let anything of substance squeak through that's not "bipartisan" and feel-good. Any tax overhauls will skew favorably to business and the wealthy; no money for infrastructure; Obamacare won't be touched, etc.
On the plus side, they will be able to pass criminal justice reform, which non-cynically is the most important piece of legislation Congress can pass right now. They might even be able to target weak immigration reform, depending on how many seats Democrats win in the House.
So if Hillary gets the Senate, she better focus on the one thing she can do, uninterrupted, for two years: appoint, appoint, appoint. Stack those lower courts so high you'd need a helicopter to measure it.
Cosmocat
(14,543 posts)there are PLENTY of court slots to fill ...
jpljr77
(1,004 posts)I am 100% enthusiastic with my support for Hillary Clinton because I know she knows what her primary task will be for the first two years: courts and other appointments. And criminal justice reform, of course. Everything else is gravy, and honestly, that might be all she gets. But whatever, I'll take it.
you are likely correct on what will happen and that it is best we can hope for.
Christ on a stick is this country fucking stupid!
jpljr77
(1,004 posts)This election will also mark the beginning of a generational shift in politics, as HRC will almost certainly be the last true Boomer to serve as President. After that, Gen-X will have a little bit of time to steer the country before the millennials take over. We'll see if the shift is one of substance or inconsequential; it could go either way.
Joe941
(2,848 posts)Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)I just don't see us getting the House at this point, even the Senate is a IF depending on voter turnout. You also need to remember that all democrats are not the same, what Sen Sanders wants is not necessarily what a blue dog elected in say, Arizona, might want or agree to. McCain is already threatening to block supreme court nominees from a President Clinton (practically impossible to do but an open salvo none the less)
The only way gridlock goes away is if one party has absolute control of the WH and both houses (more than 55% of the seats)