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Recursion

(56,582 posts)
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 10:06 AM Oct 2016

Holy crap: Christmas came early this year with yesterday's and today's polling

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

AP national: Clinton +13 and topping 50%
Rasmussen national: Clinton +1
ABC national: Clinton +8 and topping 50%
IBD national: Clinton +2
USA Today national: Clinton +10
Reuters national: Clinton +6
Fox News national: Clinton +5 and at 49%
LA Times national: Tie (this is the best Trump does in any of them)
PPIC CA: Clinton +26 (running 4 points ahead of Harris)
Mitchell MI: Clinton +6
WBZ NH: Clinton +5
Yougov TX: Trump +3

What I love about these numbers:

1. Trump's support has hit a ceiling, while Clinton's keeps rising. We now have had a few polls where she commands an absolute majority of the respondents.

2. This also gets to why it's important even if you live in a "safe" state to vote for Clinton -- there is a huge difference in terms of media spin between a President who wins a popular majority and a President who wins a popular plurality.

3. Jesus Christ on a Pogo Stick Texas is within 3 points??!?!! I had been dismissing the talk of flipping Texas as fantasies cooked up by Austinites, but with two weeks left that's not an impossible thing to shoot for (though pushing harder in AZ and NV probably makes more sense, as well as quietly helping McMullin in UT). TX is 38 EVs, sure, but CO+NV+UT+NM+AZ is 37 that could either go our way or at least be denied to Trump (in UT's case), and there's more room for error there because of the multiple jurisdictions.

4. The numbers in PA and MI really make me dismissive of the talk of Trump's "strength" in the rust belt -- he's getting walloped there. I'd much rather see a piece talking about why he's only winning a diagonal line from Alabama to Idaho.
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Holy crap: Christmas came early this year with yesterday's and today's polling (Original Post) Recursion Oct 2016 OP
Good…now SHIFT FOCUS TO CONTROL OF SENATE. blm Oct 2016 #1
Good news! Scurrilous Oct 2016 #2
I mailed in my ballot yesterday CountAllVotes Oct 2016 #3
You would not know it watching CNN itsrobert Oct 2016 #4
Hey, Polly Hennessey Oct 2016 #5
Texas is actually better than Yougov says reasonabletexan Oct 2016 #6
Yup. So of course media is in overdrive to restart the horse race narrative Maven Oct 2016 #7
"topping 50%"!!!!! wildeyed Oct 2016 #8
I don't know why people who assert treestar Oct 2016 #9
With such incredible polls, they'll need to reopen the emails inquiry! Coyotl Oct 2016 #10

reasonabletexan

(40 posts)
6. Texas is actually better than Yougov says
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 10:45 AM
Oct 2016

Yougov is not highly regarded. Early this morning, the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune released their latest poll showing a 3 point gap also - this is a poll with a much higher level of reliability.

So, although this may not be the year, it is one in which the democrats in Texas can finally get fired up.

Maven

(10,533 posts)
7. Yup. So of course media is in overdrive to restart the horse race narrative
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 11:02 AM
Oct 2016

Who cares about the republic? We need RATINGS!!!

wildeyed

(11,243 posts)
8. "topping 50%"!!!!!
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 12:30 PM
Oct 2016


Great news! If your candidate is getting more than half of the total votes available.... where there it is

treestar

(82,383 posts)
9. I don't know why people who assert
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 12:51 PM
Oct 2016

that it is bad because people will not bother to vote seem to think that. Do they have any proof?

Because a Democrat in Texas might be inspired to vote by the possibility that it is actually close and could be won, whereas they would have just assumed they were going to lose and then maybe not bothered to vote.



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