Greitens trims Koster’s lead as Trump surges in Missouri

[pstokely]

http://themissouritimes.com/35001/greitens-trims-kosters-lead-trump-surges-missouri/


"Trump now leads 50-39 in Missouri at a time where he’s losing support in other red states like Arizona and Texas. Just four percent of voters said they were undecided.

Trump’s lead has more than doubled since the race was last polled. Then he led the Missouri Times poll by 5 points.

Support for Trump in Missouri comes from some surprising places, compared to national trends. According to the poll, he’s doing better with women in the state than men, winning women 52-40 and men 49-37."

[Onlooker]

1. Remington Research is a bit of a joke, I think

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/10/26/gop-pollster-trump-4-oh-back-3-pa/

Don’t like polls from media outlets and academic institutions? Meet Remington Research, which regularly conducts polls for Axiom Strategies, a Republican-oriented consultancy. Both were founded by Jeff Roe, a longtime GOP strategist who has worked at times for Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz, specifically on his presidential bid this cycle. Axiom has a very good success rate in Congressional elections (81% of its clients have won their elections as of early 2016), and Roe got a great deal of the credit for Cruz’ surprise win in the Iowa caucuses in February.

Remington has turned its focus to swing-state polling, and finds Donald Trump up in one key state and within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in another. Both, however, raise questions about reliability.

[pstokely]

2. hasn't been much polling about the MO Gov race from other places

nt

[hatrack]

9. Jeff Roe - cornpone Karl Rove

Yeah, I'm sure you can trust his methodology . . .

[Grey Lemercier]

13. he uses insane levels of oversampling of Rethugs (I did an OP yesterday showing this)

see my post below

[jcgoldie]

3. Missouri

Its poor white and rural... doesn't have the % of urban, minority, or college educated voters that those other traditional red states mentioned have. It's right in the Trump wheelhouse.

[pstokely]

4. other than STL and KC you're right

nt

[hatrack]

10. Lived here most of my life, and it's not getting any smarter out there . .

.

[ScienceIsGood]

11. Head south in MO and Trump signs are everywhere! A lot of racist idiots. N/t

[jcgoldie]

14. I'm across the river... signs in southern Illinois...

I know it doesn't have any statistical significance in terms of predicting elections, but I'm still a bit amazed at how lonely my Hillary yard sign is. I'm usually in the minority out here in the country, but this year I'm literally the only one for miles and I drive 30 miles north to work along rural highways and pass dozens of TP signs and not a single democrat is advertising for our presidential candidate... did the Clinton campaign just not print any of these things and elect to spend the money on TV ads?

Also somewhat surprised the rednecks haven't taken a bat to my sign but I do have some big LGDs who are very watchful. Perhaps others have similar apprehension given the even more deplorable than normal nature of the opposition this cycle.

[ScienceIsGood]

15. I agree, very few Hillary signs compared to Trump. N/t

[pstokely]

16. signs don't win votes

those big signs along the highway are usually put up by local Repuke groups, while Dems don't really have much of a presence in these areas

[pstokely]

17. they're everywhere outside of KC and STL

haven't seen many Dumpf signs in KC, but they seem be everywhere along I70 between Blue Springs and Columbia

[Loki]

5. I know a few voters who have been consistent Republican voters

who are adamantly Never Trump. I don't believe that particular poll margin..this will be close in Missouri. It's truly gotv.

[pstokely]

6. I don't expect Dumpf do any better than Mittens (almost 10%) in 2012

probably around 5%

[pstokely]

7. another poll only has Dumpf up by 5%

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html

[book_worm]

8. Mason-Dixon Poll: Trump holds only 5-point lead in Missouri

WASHINGTON • Countering national trends, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton in Missouri, while incumbent Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is in a virtual tie with Democratic challenger Jason Kander, a new Post-Dispatch poll shows.

Trump leads Clinton 47 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent undecided, in the newspaper survey of 625 likely Missouri voters conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html

It's not that HRC is going to win Missouri (she won't) it's that here is another RED state that Trump is under performing.

[Grey Lemercier]

12. I completely debunk ALL credibility of Remington Research Group here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512549283