2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMSNBC keeps talking about
a Bloomberg poll in Florida with Trump +2.
Is this a new poll?
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)And many released just before and just after show clinton around +4
triron
(21,984 posts)Weird how they keep talking about that one!
They are still talking about that today?
Never watch TV news. Ever.
Thrill
(19,178 posts)They keep talking about that one poll, and ignore the rest. Clear bias. The only good poll for Trump and all the cable networks have talked about it all week
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,584 posts)http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/27/why-do-the-polls-seem-so-variable-this-week/
RKP5637
(67,086 posts)Yonnie3
(17,420 posts)Four way race, polling 10/21 - 10/24 of 953 Likely Voters 3.2 is the margin of error with Trump +2, the same poll with a two way race has Trump +1.
You can see recent Florida polls at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
RandySF
(58,464 posts)And the MSM acts like it's the only Florida poll out there.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Here you go. These are the latest Florida polls from RealPolitics.com: Note that on the second line under each poll results I have added information on each poll from fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver site - providing first the weighting he gives to the poll in his calculations and then the poll results corrected for known biases.
RCP Average 10/20-10/27 Clinton 44.7 Trump 44.3 Clinton +0.4
Emerson 10/26-10/27 Clinton 46 Trump 45 Clinton +1
Medium Clinton+3
Dixie Strategies 10/25-10/26 Clinton 42 Trump 46 Trump +4
High Trump +3
Bloomberg 10/21-10/24 Clinton 43 Trump 45 Trump +2
(not listed - usually means that poll is useless for statistical purposes)
Univ. of North Florida 10/20-10/25 Clinton43 Trump 39 Clinton +4
Medium Clinton +3
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA 10/20-10/24 Clinto n 48 Trump 45 Clinton +3
High Clinton +3
Nate Silver currently Clinton with 2.2% lead in his weigted combination of polls and give her a 65% chance of winning Florida.
Here are the links to the two web pages;
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
I have a question for you - why do you continue to watch MSNBC?
Yonnie3
(17,420 posts)fivethirtyeight.com
Oct. 21-24 Selzer & Company gives them an A+ leaves it at Trump +2
The Bloomberg article linked by real clear says it was done by Selzer.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Yonnie3
(17,420 posts)I am a bit obsessed with this stuff, polling, statistics, demographics, etc. I am not concerned much about individual polls.
I had looked at 538 first, so I just HAD to find out details of the missing "Bloomberg" poll.