Bad news: Black turnout in early voting down 40-50 % for Hillary compared to Obama 2012 numbers

[factfinder_77]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/

[Mike Nelson]

1. This is bad...

...news. Democrats need to support each other... if not, they will exploit and take away each faction's individual rights.

[Demsrule86]

33. This is bullshit...dare I use the word troll.

[brush]

42. My thoughts exactly.

[Polly Hennessey]

55. I dare you,

I double-dare you. Use the word Troll.😂
I spotted it right away and it's only 6:15 a.m.
Out here in Northern California.

[Demsrule86]

69. Well I was waiting for a triple dog dare but ok...you win...troll...hehe.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. You changed the headline

Clinton’s Coalition: Hispanic Support Appears To Be Up, Black Turnout Down

[vdogg]

25. They sure did. The agenda is obvious...

[Hekate]

100. That's a tell

[CreekDog]

6. The 40% number is made up and not in the article you linked

Why did you make up the 40% number?

[factfinder_77]

13. I didnt

[CreekDog]

26. Yes you made up the 40-50%

it's not in the numbers you provided (first, you only provided 2012 numbers).

second, you didn't get it from the article you linked because it's nowhere in there.

get it right.

[MadBadger]

47. Don't think the numbers are made up

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-struggles-in-getting-african-americans-to-early-voting-polls-106931

The percentage is at least down 40%, from 25% to 16%

[MyNameIsKhan]

111. The numbers do not match

2012 had 14.2% AA votes in total, does this mean no AA voted on election day?

From targetsmart data, the AA votes are at 11% and HRC needs 13% to win, anything above is bonus. The campaign feels very good getting to that percentage.

Further IND voters have increased from 18% in 2012 to 19.5% this year that favors HRC.

Finally White votes percentage has decreased due to demographics and larger participation of Hispanics.

[CreekDog]

122. What a stupid argument/comparison. You're quoting early vote numbers by Election Day in 2012

in 2012, versus early vote numbers over a week ahead of 2016's.

i can't even with you.

but just have your fun and don't be encumbered by facts.

[MadBadger]

123. Don't have to be an ass hole

[CreekDog]

124. if you're going to post statistics to bring people down, at least post correct statistics

when people post incorrect statistics to bring people down, that's being an asshole.

correcting it so as not to bring people down is NOT being an asshole.

oh and a decrease from 25% to 16% (a 9% decline, which as I pointed out is not comparable anyway since there's a week of early voting left) is a 36% decline, grab a calculator next time, because it's not "at least 40% as you said".

[Proud liberal 80]

7. This pisses me off

People fought, died, and marched for our right to vote. You would think that we as a people would cherish the right to vote since it was denied to our ancestors. If people actually voted and turnout was at 90% then democrats would never lose. Bad turnout is why republicans do well in midterms.

[brush]

44. Relax. Don't fall for this bullshit post. Anyone can make up false numbers to try to suppress votes

[Jason1961]

54. If anything this will help get out the AA vote!

Things like this ALWAYS backfire

[okieinpain]

73. yes, and you underestimate the new narrative of hillary in

the black community, she is not liked at all. have you seen the 13th on netflix it is playing heavily in the black community and she and mr. clinton are front and center in it.

[bravenak]

80. Funny I have not heard how unliked Hillary is in my community

Nor have I heard of many discussing the 13th. Are the rest of the black community keeping this a secret from me?

[okieinpain]

85. have you watched the 13th on netflix. my son is part of a co-op

in oklahoma city and this last weekend they had a all day event with different vendors and open mike. all day long conversations here and there on the election always had the 13th mentioned in the conversation.

as a matter of fact one of the organizers of the event gave his little closing speech by saying "fuck the election we need to work together to build black wealth". karen hunter (siriusxm radion, urbanview channel) did a segment on her show yesterday about louis farrakhan saying why vote.

yeah hillary and the older african-american group is not well liked by the younger african-american generation.

[bravenak]

90. I'm a millennial and I would not waste my time with Farrakhan

You are talking about a small segment. And how would you know whether we, young blacks like Hillary or older blacks? It's hard to get the young ones out to vote anyway. It's the over thirty crowd that does most of the voting.

[okieinpain]

91. lol, not a small crowd and who do you think

becomes 30 in the future. nevermind, there's a trainwreck coming and it's going to happen because nobody wants to hear about it.

[bravenak]

92. Yeah, sure

[bravenak]

94. So what? Kanye says it will be Kanye. And?

[okieinpain]

95. lol, exactly my point, they don't

care about the democratic party, it's all a joke to them. if this party doesn't come up with a plan to pull these people in and get them active the future is going to get very dim very quickly.

[bravenak]

96. I didnt care either. Then I had kids and responsibilities. Changes shit. 2Chainz hosting soul 2 poll

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/ebenezer-baptist-church-atlanta-rapper-2-chainz-hosted-souls-to-the-polls-early-voting-drive-1/344373912

[okieinpain]

97. then you know what i'm talking about, alot of the people I'm

talking about will never be in that position. so don't you think the party needs to come up with a plan to get them there. there is a scene in "im gonna get you sucker" where this guy is a revolunatary and he says he had a group read to take over a government building until they offered everyone a job at the post office.

get it post office.

[bravenak]

98. Yeah, I know

But it aint never gon be like it was with obama. Maybe the genxers can run next time and give us something to work with. Right now its trump o clinton. Clinton gets my vote. Once the next generation gets a chance it will be better for us millennials, since they damn near raised us, or were our parents, not our grandparents. My mom is a genxer, way to the left of obama. I'm to her left but I pull her my way on social issues. It's easy to convince her that more equality is better.

[okieinpain]

99. i understand. n/t.

[SweetieD]

106. You also have a lot of millenials following black youtube personalities

more so than following talking heads on major news networks.

The message from a lot of these youtube commentators (ex. Tariq nasheed/Boyce Watkins) is don't vote for president or voting for president doesn't matter. A lot of people are out of touch with what is really happening. This election Hillary will be fine, it is more so the 2020 and future elections where these ideas may affect things.

[DarthDem]

8. Oh Noes!!

She can lose at least 10% of Obama's AA vote and it will be more than made up for by her increased share of the Hispanic vote.

Silly article; just five-thirty-ESPN needing something to keep the clicks coming with a week left.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. The evidence suggests she is getting the same %, just not the same turnout.

OTOH, Asian and Latino participation appears to be up !

[DarthDem]

20. Way Up

Not so much ado about nothing. The 538 guys must really be struggling.

[Farmgirl1961]

84. I have heard that in some areas AA turnout is lower than 2012 for this time

but then I heard that there were a lot of issues with polling locations for early voting and what not. Can something with a lot more information than me give us an overview on this?

[Sugarcoated]

86. You "heard" some things, lol?

Why don't you look up and link to prove what "you heard" and whatnot.

[LiberalFighter]

105. Absolutely. Any one set of numbers don't mean shit.

But when they are all included there is a difference. There are a lot more parts to the electorate than in the past.

[scheming daemons]

10. Low post count concern troll with misleading headline

Coming out of the wood work lately.

[factfinder_77]

12. So why dont you read the article before you post ? The numbers are quite clear

[scheming daemons]

14. I did read the article, Mr. Concern Troll

Your headline is misleading, I believe intentionally so.

[molova]

18. Factfinder is a good guy

In defense of factfinder:
Although he was very afflicted by Bernie's loss, I believe he does not have a bone to pick.
I am moderately certain this is not a case of sour grapes.

[scheming daemons]

23. He joined the site after Bernie was effectively done

I don't believe his intentions are good..

Otherwise, his subject wouldn't have been so misleading.

[vdogg]

27. A lot of these "former" Bernie supporters have a bone to pick.

They never got over his loss and it's always the same ones posting doom and gloom threads in an effort to demoralize Democrats. They seem to have a vested interest in seeing Hillary lose, always downplaying good news and accentuating the negative. It's as obvious as it is tiresome.

[lapucelle]

57. I had a really great experience canvassing for Hillary in PA.

My team of four included two people who were Bernie voters in the primary, one of whom had also been a Sanders volunteer. We're all New Yorkers, so the canvassing detail involved hours of travel and demonstrated real commitment. It was very heartening.

[LiberalFighter]

108. I disagree with that.

The ones in this area are doing what they can. That includes the 3 that went as delegates to the convention.

[semby2]

28. bullshit

He also just posted the ABC poll. He's clearly scouring the internet looking for the most negative news.

[Demsrule86]

37. No he is not.

Another negative post in less than an hour...but it concerns me that you think he is a good guy...he is no such thing.

[Demsrule86]

38. He is not a Bernie supporter.

No real Bernie supporter could turn towards Trump. The fact he is looking for negative crap to post says it all.

[hedda_foil]

71. Question: How many more days remain for early and mail in voting in those states?

Souls to the Polls traditionally takes place on the Sunday before the election. Some states purposely stopped early voting on Sundays. I believe the courts have found against the states that tried that. Does this affect the states in question?

We know there's been a lot of voter caging activity. The courts have found against this gambit of stripping names off voting rolls if a remotely similar name appeared in registered voter rolls in another state.

[Littlered9560]

32. You are correct.

I lurk much, post little. This particular poster has a habit of posting concern posts (two this morning that I have seen) followed by other low post sycophants chiming in. It's as obvious as the proverbial nose on the face.

[Demsrule86]

39. We know who they are...it is an insult to our intelligence that they think we

will not spot these sort of posts. I lurked here for years before I first started posting. Many do...but you can tell if they are trolls or not pretty easily.

[Littlered9560]

41. Thanks!

[blue cat]

51. I am

An addicted longtime lurker.

[Demsrule86]

35. He just posted the ABC bullshit poll further down...troll.

[Sunsky]

15. 40- 50% really?

I'm trying to find that fact? I personally know of never voters who are planning to vote for the first time because Trump and his supporters scares us in this community. Is it nov 9th? It's not over.

[CreekDog]

29. the OP made up the 40-50% number

it's not in the article he linked to.

and the data he provided only includes 2012 data, so there's nowhere to find the 2016 vs. 2012 black turnout numbers.

[Demsrule86]

16. Nice try but I don't buy it ...oh and welcome to DU

Enjoy your stay.

[helpisontheway]

17. It is probably because of the way

she (and Bill) treated Obama in 2008. I'm African American and it pissed me off that they acted like she was owed the presidency. Then Bill acted like the idea of Obama being president was a joke. They kept saying that he was not qualified and that we were in this fantasy. All but said we were drinking the koolaid and were silly to believe the hope and change. I loved Bill for so many years but now my feelings have changed. I can't really stand to watch him on tv now. It just hurt my heart that he was so dismissive of President Obama. I understand his wife was running but I wish he had been more positive about her instead.

I will admit that I was not enthusiastic about Hillary. I did not like Bernie but I was not crazy about her because of 2008. Anyway, I decided to vote for Hillary. I am a Democrat and I will enthusiastically support Hillary. She is the only person that stands between us and this sexist,racist and narcissistic monster. Other African Americans need to WAKE THE HELL UP!!! Put that shit in the past. If President Obama can forgive them and put it in the past then we should too. If they allow Trump to be elected EVERYTHING that Obama did will be erased. The Supreme Court would be affected for decades. They better get out and vote!

*Oh and I am not putting my own theories out there. Many other African Americans around me have told me that they are hesitant to support Hillary because of the way she acted in 2008. They say they just don't like her. Oprah is hearing the same things. That is why she came out and said we did not have to like her.

[DarthDem]

21. Zzzzzz

Concerning!

[CreekDog]

30. No, because the 40-50% number was made up

it's not in the article or data he provided.

it's made up and not a real number.

but if your narrative depends on his made up number, we know how reliable your narrative is too.

[EffieBlack]

45. Bullshit

Among other things, black voters are not having trouble supporting Hillary Clinton - we're savvy enough to know the difference between Hillary Clinton Donald Trump and the vast majority of us aren't struggling at all with our choice.

And Oprah wasn't talking just to black voters. she was talking to undecided voters, of whom blacks make up a tiny percentage ...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. It seems Hillary is getting the same percentage as Barack.

It seems Hillary is getting the same percentage as Barack. African Americans are just not voting at the same pace , so far...

The OP ignores Hispanic and Asian participation are up.

[SweetieD]

65. The choice isn't between Hillary and Trump it is between voting for Hillary and not voting at all.

I am black and I see what that poster is talking about.

It is not about being undecided as to who to vote for. Most black people are going to vote democrat period no matter what or who is at the top of the ticket or who the opposition is. Most black people see through Trump. However, the issue isn't about whether to vote for Hill or Trump but whether to vote at all, if someone finds Hillary unappealing.

[EffieBlack]

74. I'm black, too - and I don't know any black people who aren't voting

because they find Hillary "unappealing."

Not one.

Black voters are very sophisticated - probably the most sophisticated bloc in the electorate. We have been voting for candidates we find unappealing for decades. We're not going to suddenly sit out an election because the candidate who's much more likely to represent our interests isn't perfect.

My sense is that most black voters see the Clintons like family - they're not perfect, sometimes they piss us off, sometimes they make us roll our eyes and sometimes we love them so much we could cry. But, more often than not, they've been there for us and with us and we're going to be there for and with her. That's how we roll.

[bravenak]

81. I see alot of folks suddenly know every thing about us black folks again

[SweetieD]

83. I respectfully disagree.

Last edited Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:35 PM - Edit history (1)

tbh I don't feel like writing out more out of fear of considered being a troll.But there are real issues that the black community has with Hillary Clinton in particular. But the family thing is laughable. Maybe for older folks but for people under 40, no.

And I didn't say folks would be sitting out of the election en masse. I said that black people overwhelmingly are going to vote for Clinton, just like we voted for Obama, Gore, Kerry etc. Each got over 90% of the black vote. But as far as total voter turnout, I think that will be less. I'm just giving my honest opinion and not some rah rah speech that people want to hear.

As I said in another post, I don't think she will see the same numbers as Obama got from black people, but I don't think the difference will affect her ability to carry any one state. Hillary will win the election, I don't think there is doubt about that. It is just an argument over particulars.

[okieinpain]

87. im going to disagree with you a little bit as a

warning to the democratic party. frustration is brewing and if the democratic party doesn't start addressing some of these concerns in a big way this younger generation coming up is going to look for other alternatives.

[NWCorona]

118. I'm not trying really get into it but I'm actively participating in gotv

drives on college campuses and I'm seeing a lot of black students who are totally apathetic to voting. Period. They would rather focus on micro building within the community

[50 Shades Of Blue]

53. How do you like the way Trump has treated Obama since 2009?

It's bullshit to hold the 2008 primary season against Clinton. After Obama was the nominee she fully supported him and joined his administration with great success. He now fully supports her. Compare that inspiring record to TRUMP'S consistent racism.

[BlueCaliDem]

104. Excellent points, and I hope this will be pointed out as a reminder how Repubs treated our

first Black President for all of his EIGHT years, and then remember who President Obama chose as his SoS and who he wants to succeed him.

Sometimes, people need these reminders.

[SweetieD]

63. I agree with you.

People can stick their head in the sand but black turnout won't be like it was in 2012 or 2008 in most places. Most black people, yes I am black, were energized to vote by Obama. Obviously, Hillary will win the black vote by huge margins, but the actual number of black voters will be down. I don't think it will be down so much as to affect her ability to carry any one state though.

[oasis]

79. Oprah is full of shit. She gave Arnold Swartzeneggar a boost in his

California bid for governor. Her Dem credentials are highly questionable.

[helpisontheway]

101. Well, Arnold is married to one of her very close friends..Maria Shriver. Nt

[oasis]

103. "Maria's my close friend, so it's under the bus for you Cali folks"

That was Oprah's political calculation.

[regnaD kciN]

110. "was"

[helpisontheway]

115. No..they are separated but not divorced. nt

[regnaD kciN]

109. That's kind of strange…

…because I always thought one of her strengths during the primaries over Sanders was in the A-A vote.

[Hekate]

125. How about the way the Big Dog pulled out all the stops at the 2012 Convention?

Obama looked exhausted after battling the GOP Congress for 4 years, low energy, if you will. The speech that Bill Clinton gave was vintage Clinton. It was fantastic. It brought the crowd to their feet and the energy back to Obama and the campaign.

Prior to that, both Clintons campaigned hard for Obama in 2008. She served as Secretary of State.

Barack Obama, best POTUS of my lifetime, is a consummate politician. So are the Clintons. They're not holding grudges -- they're working toward a future for all Americans.

So where are you getting your information?

[semby2]

24. stop

Stop reading bullshit 538 click bait. They're constantly running articles phrased as negatively as possible. One of the states they use is Texas! Lol

[LisaL]

34. And its very misleading.

For instance, turnout in Harris county (TX) is up compared to the same time of 2012.

[Orcrist]

36. WHY

are these trolls allowed to post here? And what a sad pathetic life it must be to spend your time trolling websites.

[GeorgeGist]

43. Cherry picking isn't fact finding.

[Joe941]

48. Tell black voters Hillary will be as good or better than Obama.

[book_worm]

49. Take this garbage elsewhere and don't try to bring us down

[okieinpain]

89. why do you say this, do you prefer a lie to the truth. n/t.

[Quixote1818]

52. I heard it's slightly down for African Americans and up for Hispanics nt

nt

[bravenak]

56. Why the fuck is the Headline not the same as linked?

I'm very fucking concerned when folks change headlines to promote a false narrative. Don't trip. Us black folks know how to get to the damn polls. If early voting and polling locations had not been SERIOUSLY CUT we'd probably be at the same place as last time. It should fucking CONCERN you that our goddamn muthafucking votes are being fucking suppressed, but lets just pretend Hillary has some issue with black voters and ignore the fact that us negroes are the most likely to have our polling place closed down and must needs drive into goddamn places where the cops be like


👮🏻😡🕵🏻🔫, "oh hai. Wat cha doing here in this nice white space? Oh, voting? Let me see your i dee and yur registration."
*reaches for wallet*
🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫 *bunchez of bang bangs*
"Drop yur weapon, blackness!! Drop the weeeaappoonn!"

*black person groans*

"I was GETTING MY WALLET! Y u shoot me, damn mf, it feels like slavery!"

"Oops. It's fine. I'll get a paid vacay, and you'll go to jail cause no video. Let me just plant this gun..."


Or not be able to get there at all because they relied on Sunday Souls to the polls
Or not have voter id.
Or be afraid because Trump is loudly sending in scary angry folks to try to OBSERVE them, many older folks remember that shit.

Or maybe they have concern trolls in real life making them not even feel like it since it's hopeless anywayz.

[Demsrule86]

59. As always Bravnak...great post.

Right on the money. These concern posts are about demoralizing the vote.

[bravenak]

60. Same set of folks too

[Demsrule86]

62. Yep some have multiple posts in a short time...all deeply concerning.

[DLCWIdem]

61. Not only that the Nazi's are scaring some

Away from the polls it will pick up by election day. Slow not down. I don't know if poster is a concern troll but I know the AA are supporting Hill. To suggest otherwise is concern trolling.

[bravenak]

64. The headline change is my clue that it's an effort to gin up dismal feels

[tevolit]

67. I think you're out of order.

I believe your attacks on the OP are wrong.

I also believe that after you accused the OP of promoting a false narrative, that you went on to promote, what I think is, a false narrative.

[bravenak]

68. You think wrong

[Demsrule86]

70. Really ?

[Coyotl]

58. False equivalency to compare these without accounting for the changes in dates and times.

What is made to look like bad news here is actually great news in some cases.

[tevolit]

66. Strategize

This is the type of thing that we need the analysts to notice.

_______________________

****Or not be able to get there at all because they relied on Sunday Souls to the polls****

Perhaps we should look at the areas where this effect was greatest and mobilize a solution.

______________________________

*****Or not have voter id.*****

Any ideas on what more we can do about this one?
__________________________

****Or be afraid because Trump is loudly sending in scary angry folks to try to OBSERVE them, ****

Perhaps we can organize groups to go to the polls together; Safety in numbers.

[ananda]

72. Voter suppression and intimidation is working.

I hate to say it, but I've been reading reports.

It's been bad here in Texas, for sure.

[Native]

75. Well one good thing about the dissent re this post - it actually got me to read the full article.

which, if read it in its entirety, basically just tells us that women & latinos MAY play a larger role in getting hillary elected compared to the role african-americans played in getting obama elected in 2012. Yes the OP's title is ridiculous, but the article is still worth reading. And I think people need to realize that these numbers are the percentage of votes as of Monday morning "AS A SHARE OF ALL [TOTAL] ABSENTEE VOTES IN 2012."

[Quantess]

76. The enthusiasm is not there like it was for Obama, that's for sure.

I just hope the Black communities feel emboldened by voting for Obama so much that they will keep up the good work by voting this election, too!

[Foggyhill]

78. This title is blatantly false, meant to inlsmr

[reasonabletexan]

82. Here is why this post is bullshit (at least for the concern part)

The article and/or the poster is comparing 2016 to date (as of Sunday night, 10/30) with the entire early vote or early plus absentee in 2012.

I noticed the numbers were funny because I am following Texas' record turnout very closely. As of Sunday night (Monday morning), Texas had held 7 of its 12 days of early voting, or 58.33% of the early vote opportunities available. Every number on the Texas list, Latino or AA, is above the 2012 (and way above the 2008) pace. We are rocking it. Further, this set of numbers ignores absentee votes to date. The County Democratic Parties in Texas have made a huge and wildly successful effort to expand absentee voting among democrats in Texas. We have already surpassed 2012 and 2008 TOTAL absentee vote totals (by 28% and 62%, respectively). In fact, we have drawn remarkably close to the R turnout. When you add absentee and early vote to date, we are setting records. This is a fallacy in the predicate.

For the other two states, I do not have as much concrete information as to voting times, etc., but I will bet Virginia roars in in the final week. As for Florida, why don't the figures for 2016 include vote-by-mail votes too instead of just "votes cast?" Is it the same? If not, why not?

[forjusticethunders]

88. >turnout is down 40-50% with 40-50% of the early vote period left to go

gr8 b8 m8

[reasonabletexan]

116. Actually, in Harris County, Texas

After 2/3 (66.7%) of the early election days, we have voted 79+% of our 2012 numbers. We are breaking the ceiling.

[forjusticethunders]

120. Even better but concern trolls gonna concern troll

we got this.

[doc03]

102. I don't understand how these charts even relate to your subject.. n/t

[MyNameIsKhan]

113. Based on data AA votes are down 30% - 8 days before election but here is silver lining

Hispanic vote is up 40% ...

IND votes are up to where HRC has partisan advantage of 13%

Race is probably even or slightly favored for Trump now.

[reasonabletexan]

119. You are so full of it.

Not remotely close. Let's bet 5 dinners.

[MyNameIsKhan]

121. Here is more data from Florida expert Dr Daniel Smith

http://www.electionsmith.com

You can make your own calculations, the post is written based on data coming in from actual voter rolls.

?w=920