The Map Favors Us, Get out the Vote and We'll Win
and win easily. I get the polling is worse than it was a week ago, the MSM is killing our candidate to try and make the race closer...but poll freakout helps no one. It's always better to look at context.
That's why I like the NY Times Upshot.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
If you scroll-down, mid page, it gives you all the forecasts (not just 538).
538 is the lower outlier. Now, it's not for click-bait, or anything like that. Nate Silver has stated several times that the difference is that his model closely correlates states, meaning he thinks if Ohio goes bad, that means Virginia gets worse, etc...and that there is a greater chance of Trump movement across the board. But anyway, doesn't mean it's wrong...but context. 75% is better than 25%! Why the freakout?
Finally, the big change this election is the purple-to-light blue move of Virginia and Colorado. That's a game changer. We win with this map:
That would be a pretty big collapse for us, to lose all those states, and we still win. FWIW, I think we do much better than that, and easily go over 300 EVs, but even a "collapse" is not fatal.
There are very smart people working on this campaign, that are doing GOTV on a micro-level, you can panic when they do. They know they're hitting their numbers, turning out their people, and going to win. And you know how we know that?
Hillary is still visiting Arizona. The candidate's time is the most valuable commodity a candidate has, and the fact that they are still going to Arizona, when they don't need it, and it's a "luxury" state tells you a lot. They are calm, and looking for a blowout.
So, don't panic. You can always find a good a poll and a bad poll. She's winning this, and if you're the worrying type, channel that energy into phone banking, knock on some doors, leave no doubt. But freaking out over polls doesn't help anyone.
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