2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumElectoral College Math Continues to Favor Clinton
Electoral College Math Continues to Favor ClintonNATIONAL POLITICS|By Amy Walter, November 1, 2016
The other constant has been the demographic divide. Trump has struggled to and quite frankly was never interested in building a broad coalition of voters. He didnt just ignore the RNCs 2013 GOP autopsy recommendations to appeal to communities of color, younger voters and women, he is actively running against them.
He has doubled/tripled/quadrupled down on the theory that there are enough white, working class voters to get him over the finish line. For her part, Clinton has tried to assemble the Obama coalition of young and non-white voters. And, while it is unlikely that well see African-American turnout hit 2012 levels, Clinton has been able to add to her coalition suburban and college educated white voters who are turned off by Trumps behavior.
The most recent polls suggest that Trumps best chances to flip a state Obama carried in 2012 are Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Even so, North Carolina a state Romney carried in 2012 is looking tougher and tougher for Trump. Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado also look out of reach. Without North Carolina or Pennsylvania, it is almost impossible for him to hit 270.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/10132
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)vadermike
(1,415 posts)Happening in CO ? Why are Hillarys team putting up commercials now?
exboyfil
(17,862 posts)If she loses IA, OH, and FL as well as the electoral vote in ME.
Based on 538 Colorado is the dividing line now.
vadermike
(1,415 posts)Ads to make it safe Probably just to make sure Early vote there looks really good Probably a smart move
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)[center]
GOTV. Let's win Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa too!
By David Jarman Oct 31, 2016
Youve probably already ODd on reading about Fridays cryptic Comey memo, which re-opened the e-mail can of worms (if only to reveal the can was empty), from every legal and messaging angle. I don't have anything to add about it from those perspectives, so Ill just stay in my lane here and answer the questions about what does this do to the polls?!? Its a pretty simple answer, though: nothing so far. The Daily Kos Elections model is still holding steady in the mid-90s, currently giving Hillary Clinton 96 percent odds of victory according to Mondays numbers.
It shouldn't be hard to see why: a) many people simply havent heard the story (believe it or not, most people dont follow the news as obsessively as your average Daily Kos reader), focusing instead on football or on earning enough money to survive or simply having a life on the weekend; b) many people whove heard the story just walked away from it with more question marks than they before; and most importantly c) thanks to the intense levels of political polarization in todays society, most people who fully digested the story already made up their minds long ago, and what few truly undecided swing voters still remain are more likely to be making their last-minute decisions based on their own personal economic situations or the ol have a beer with test, instead of the baffling sequel to a story that was highly-technical and boring the first time around.
(Theres also: d) 21 million people have already voted, which well discuss in more detail shortly. And while the early voters are probably the most hardcore partisans of the electorate, the ones least likely to be swayed by a story like this, thats still possibly 1/5th of the electorate ... is already locked in.)
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)It's all about turnout at this point. Clinton is a heavy favorite to reach 270+, but a closer than expected contest will impact down-ballot races as well as the media narrative following the election (the message will be, "Clinton has no chance of lasting more than 4 years because she barely beat the worst candidate in modern history." .
We live in a pretty screwed up nation.
Where Clinton emails (or Clinton staffer emails) rule all.
Where the mainstream media doesn't much care that Trump faces a lawsuit for allegedly raping a child, that Trump's campaign may have highly questionable ties to Russia, that Trump has sexually assaulted numerous women, that Trump has no substantive policy position, that Trump is a racist and a xenophobe, that Trump has stiffed contractors and students of his university and others, that Trump doesn't pay taxes and brags about it, and so on.
Where Donald effing Trump may get 50 million votes.
As someone in another thread said, it's Kafkaesque. Actually, it's beyond Kafkaesque. We need a new term to describe just how insane this all is.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Trump will be very lucky to break 200, and if he loses Texas,it will be a complete blowout.
Hillary Clinton currently has a 96% chance of winning the presidency even if Trump carries OH, IA, GA, and AZ. If he loses one of those, he's below 200. Clinton is going to have a decent mandate at a minimum.
Time to focus on the Senate GOTV efforts in IN, MO, NV, NH, NC, and PA, and esp. districts that are House tossups.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)It's rather sad that Trump could do better than McCain and maybe even better than Romney.
I sure as hell hope it's a landslide, as that would help Dems take back the Senate and pick up seats in the House.
If I had to guess right now, I'd say Clinton will end up with 320-330 electoral votes. But I'm afraid the media will focus on her failure to reach 50% of the popular vote.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Again, I don't doubt Clinton will win. I've made clear what my concerns are.
jzodda
(2,124 posts)Using a blank map and filling each state individually this is what's clear to me. She gets to 279 electoral votes and victory if she wins:
Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. These are not reach states and her lead is pretty solid in these places.
Another way of looking at it is that she can afford to lose Florida, Ohio and North Carolina and still win.
This assumption of course assumes she holds onto Michigan and Wisconsin which is more than likely.
So even though it's closer tham I would prefer it's Trump that has his back up against the wall, not Clinton.