State of Florida race Nov 1st

[MyNameIsKhan]

For Tom Bonier CEO Targetsmart

Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier 5h5 hours ago
FL Data Dump: 1) With over 4 million ballots cast, GOP registrants outnumber Dems by 16k votes cast. That's a 0.4% advantage. However...

Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier 5h5 hours ago
2) Almost 700k votes have been cast by Unaffiliated voters. And those voters skew heavily Dem, with a 13% modeled partisan advantage

Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier 5h5 hours ago
3) Unaffiliated EV/AV are more likely to be Hispanic (22%), or Millennial (16%), and only 65% are white

From Steve Schale, Former Florida Director 2012 Obama Campaign

The electorate continues to get more diverse. Through the Sunday vote, Hispanics are now 13.5% of the votes so far, with Black voters (African American and Caribbean) at 11. White is down to 70, and has trended down from nearly 80% when in-person early voting started. I have no doubt at this point that the electorate in 2016 will end up more diverse than 2012.

I also don’t expect the Black share of vote to match 2012. That was a historic moment. But I do expect the Black share of vote to approach its registration share (13.9%). In my models, which have her winning, I expect it to land at 13%, so anything north of this is positive.

...

Republicans have been making the case that Democrats have closed the VBM gaps by cannibalizing their own vote, but here is an interesting finding: Republicans are actually doing it more to themselves. Right now, about 34,000 more 2012 Election Day Republicans have early than Democrats.

...

There are plenty of worrisome things in the data, not the least of which is the ridiculous number of vote-by-mail ballots are out there, and there are slightly more 2012 voting Republicans yet to vote than Democrats. In other words, to stay with the theme, take nothing for granted. And again, there are almost 80,000 more Democratic VBM ballots gathering dust in homes around the state – but a large chunk of those are low propensity voters – volunteer to go chase those. Whether or not Trump wins Florida is largely on you.

http://steveschale.com

Some Perspective from 2012

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/11/day-before-election-day-outlook-45-have-voted-ds-lead-rs-by-167000-ballots.html

Party EV Total %
DEM 1,915,572 43%
REP 1,747,952 39%
IND 805,869 18%
TOTAL 4,469,393

More than 4.5 million Florida votes are already in before Election Day and Democrats used the last full official day of in-person early voting to extend their lead over Republican ballots cast by 167,000, according to this morning's figures.

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We are lagging today by 16000 votes "BUT" IND has increased to 19.5% which favors Dems. Based on this I would say we are running up around 50,000 votes at this time, but Republican have canabalized election day voting by 34,000 votes... so all in we are up 84,000 at this time. Is this enough to win?

We still have one EV weekend left...

[Farmgirl1961]

1. What's the ground game like?

As far as Dems knocking on doors...making phone calls....? The one article I posted talked about there being a good ground game for Latino voters. What about for AA voters?

[MyNameIsKhan]

2. Ground game for AA voters is little different than Hispanic..

The ground game for Hispanic is personal outreach and convincing them to vote or return VBM (Vote by Mail Ballots). The AA outreach is community based, Church, Soul to Polls etc. Though I have not much idea about FL.

In anycase as few others have pointed out AA votes are down in FL but that was expected, one cannot expected 2012 that as historic for AA's. As Steve pointed out if we can get a registration level percentage, the turnout model has HRC winning.

[SouthernProgressive]

4. I just left our local office.

There were multiple people phone banking, I'm not sure how many out canvasing but they mentioned it, and a guy walked in while I was there to sign up for canvasing. Seems pretty active considering the size of the office. They had a main office that was pretty small and also had the office next door they were doing phone banking out of.

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. Thank you, I guess you are in south FL right?

[SouthernProgressive]

8. West Central/Pinellas County. nt.

[MyNameIsKhan]

11. That I heard is Trump Country? Somebody reported Trump signs everywhere...

[SouthernProgressive]

12. Not sure how that makes it Trump Country.

Across the bridge is more Trumpish.

Put up a Clinton sign in our area and it's gone by the next morning. Every morning I walk up and down the street looking for mine. I have found it in one of the neighbors lawns each morning.

I know some people who won't put up a sign this year as they don't want Trump supporters coming onto their property.

Tomorrow morning my sign will be down again.

[MyNameIsKhan]

13. So trump voter intensity ... got it.

[OnDoutside]

3. This is a question I've asked previously

. And again, there are almost 80,000 more Democratic VBM ballots gathering dust in homes around the state – but a large chunk of those are low propensity voters – volunteer to go chase those.

Do they know who actually has not returned their ballots i.e. can they micro target these people, or do they have to trawl through the entire list to find out if they've done so ?

[MyNameIsKhan]

5. They for sure know who has returned ballot as outreach has been done

and marked in centralized database, they are targeting micro level, I would imagine HRC knows who all voted in 2012 to very good degree of accuracy.

[OnDoutside]

7. The value of a great ground game then. I can't imagine Trump has anything like that.

[MyNameIsKhan]

10. To put some perspective to 2012

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/11/day-before-election-day-outlook-45-have-voted-ds-lead-rs-by-167000-ballots.html

Party EV Total %
DEM 1,915,572 43%
REP 1,747,952 39%
IND 805,869 18%
TOTAL 4,469,393

More than 4.5 million Florida votes are already in before Election Day and Democrats used the last full official day of in-person early voting to extend their lead over Republican ballots cast by 167,000, according to this morning's figures.

We are lagging today by 16000 votes "BUT" IND has increased to 19.5% which favors Dems. Based on this I would say we are running up around 50,000 votes at this time, but Republican have canabalized election day voting by 34,000 votes... so all in we are up 84,000 at this time. Is this enough to win?

[JennyMominFL]

9. Canvassing

I am regularly contacted by Dem organizations and my family will canvass on the 7th and 8th

[MyNameIsKhan]

14. great thank you