2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary is still very likely to win - but it's silly to believe things have not tightened.
They have.
Now some of this is just the nature of political campaigns. They typically do tighten the closer we get to election day. Most of this is just the base coming home to a candidate they were reluctant to support. Hillary has always had a stronger showing among her total base (not just ideological base, mind you) than Donald Trump. But as we get closer to crunch time, those Republicans who spent months and months saying they were adamantly opposed to Trump have concluded, for whatever reason, they're cool with him now. Thing is, it was always going to be this way. It's almost always this way. The base with the most questions typically come back into the fold as they realize everything at stake.
It's ridiculous to us, as liberals, that anyone could support Trump. But these Republicans' hatred of Hillary, and the desire to control every branch of the government, including the Supreme Court, was always going to win out over whether they had the moral fortitude to break from the party and support either Johnson, or even in some extremes, Hillary.
In fact, I'd wager most of the tightening we've seen is a direct result of party partisans coming back to the national ticket.
The problem is, that's not necessarily a good thing.
And that's the biggest unknown heading into the next few days of the election.
It's still way too early to get a sense of what impact the FBI Friday news dump will have on the race. It happened so close to the weekend, so close to a major holiday, that its impact probably won't be clear in the polls (if there is an impact at all) until Thursday or Friday of this week.
Case in point: Donald Trump's 'Grab Her by the Pussy' tape. Like with Comey's leak, this, too, came out on a Friday. October 7th, to be exact - basically a month before the election. On Oct. 7th, Clinton's lead in the polls was 3.2% - or only slightly above where it is today. On the 11th (that next Tuesday, so the exact same amount of time has gone by between the release of that tape and the release of the FBI letter), Hillary's lead was 5.5 points. So, she did see an increase of 2.3% in the polls, which indicates there was a potential shift due to the tape being released - however, and this is what I need to stress, it wasn't the end of that shift.
So, last Friday, when the letter leaked, Hillary's lead over Trump was 3.8 points. It's now 2.2 points - a decrease of 1.6 points. Less than the damage Trump saw in the couple days after his leaked scandal - but that Tuesday was not the end of the fallout. A week later, on the 18th, Hillary's lead in the polls was 7.1 - a total change of basically 4 points in favor of Hillary between the drop of that Access Hollywood tape and what would indicate a week's worth of polling beyond that initial Tuesday.
The polls then started a gradual decline between that Tuesday and today - with Hillary's lead slipping for the most part.
But it's clear the damage of the Access Hollywood tape wasn't entirely felt for 11 or so days after its release.
Of course, much of this also could be tied to the debate performances, which happened both before the release of the tape and in the middle of all this mess (the second debate happened that Monday after the release of the tape - and apparently did not blunt the bleeding Trump was seeing in the polls, as his numbers only worsened in that next week). But no one knows what the next week holds in terms of polling.
I guess that's my point. We can't definitively say this FBI release won't hammer Hillary's poll numbers - but we can't, for sure, say that it will. It's possible all the movement we've seen since Friday was entirely due to Republicans coming back to Trump, as we should have expected 'em to do in the first place.
But because we don't know, it's hard to conclude anything beyond the fact that if the election were held today, Hillary would probably win by a margin similar to Obama in 2012.
In a week's time, though? I suspect she'll still be leading - but will it be by a narrower margin where things are truly in doubt?
Well, sadly, I don't know. Neither do you. No one does, in fact. But I do think we'll have a clearer idea in two or three days. If, by Friday, Hillary still has a lead in the polls, especially if she leads by her current margin, I think it'll be safe to say the FBI letter is not going to cost her the election. So, these next three days are critical for the campaign. I know that sounds really ridiculous to say, since obviously the last few days of any campaign is critical - but this is the first real point in the presidential campaign where things could be getting away from Hillary. I say could because we don't know, either way, though it's clear she still leads.
I guess I'll sum it up by putting it into football terms:
Hillary entered the 4th quarter up three scores, say, 38-21, on Donald Trump (the 4th starting the second the last debate ended). Trump scored to cut the lead to 28-38, Hillary had a turnover (caused by bad officiating) and Trump scored again to make it 38-31 with two minutes left. Hillary has the ball and just needs to run the clock out to win this thing. But she needs a couple first downs or she risks giving the ball back to Trump. She's still the odds on favorite to win - but if this series sputters, like say her poll numbers keep dropping, Trump is going to have his shot.
So, like I said, this is a very critical point in the campaign. Watch the polls the next few days because I think, by Friday, maybe even tomorrow or Thursday, we'll have a clear indication of where this race is going. It's either going to remain a consistent, but small Hillary lead or things are going to get really interesting really fast.
Frankly, I think we'll be okay. Hillary is going to get a couple first downs and win this thing. It's just not going to be by the three scores we had hoped for at the start of the fourth.
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Cattledog
(5,914 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)
vadermike
(1,415 posts)If trump wins there won't be a Democratic Party anymore Forget he GOP imploding our party will ugh
Egnever
(21,506 posts)The fundamentals of this election have not changed nearly enough to matter.
Trump's path to the electoral college is still virtually impossible.
The media is doing a great job of continuing to paint this as a close race but it has never been one nor is it now.
Yes Trump will get way more votes than we think a sane country should ever give him but he will still lose spectacularly.
He has to run the board to win and even with the polls tightening that is not going to happen. It just isn't.
I would be happy to bet on that.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)The fundamentals of this election have not changed nearly enough to matter.
The fundamentals of this campaign has always been close. I'd wager the lead she saw in October was artificial, built on three bad debates and a tape that damaged Trump with a great deal of Republican voters. Problem is, as it's been since Day One, those voters still have decided to stick it out with Trump and while they may have temporarily moved from him in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape, they've now come back to him. Hillary, for the most part, has had a pretty smooth campaign post-convention. There just wasn't many moments that rocked her support. Everything with the e-mails was well out of the way before conventions, and it allowed Americans to move on. The fact is, whether people want to admit it or not, this is the first point, since the conventions ended, Hillary is really faced with a slew of negative news stories. Everything else before that point was dominated by Trump's screw ups - whether it was his going after the Khan family, calling Miss Universe Miss Piggy, his awful first debate performance, the leaking of the Access Hollywood tapes, the statements about Russia and, finally, the women who've come forward to accuse him of sexual assault. Even still, even with a month's long shit show for his campaign, the largest average deficit Trump had in the polls was 7.1 points - 11 days out from the Access Hollywood tape.
This election has always been close in the overall popular vote and the margins are pretty close in many swing states as well. That's the fundamentals of this election - a marginal, but persistent, Hillary lead. I don't think that's going to change - but, I also don't know how the voters are going to react to the first real negative Hillary story in two months. Her average lead in a four-way race is now 2.2 points - and dropping. It'll either stabilize or things are going to get interesting.
Trump's path to the electoral college is still virtually impossible.
I agree his path to 270 is extremely unlikely, which is why Hillary remains the heavy favorite heading into the final week of the race. However, it's not virtually impossible. Florida, Ohio and Iowa are three states Obama won that Trump is likely to turn red, according to polls. He's also potentially going to get one electoral vote out of Maine. The good news, that still doesn't get him to 270. You're absolutely right. So, that means the election comes down to the following states: Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina. This assumes Trump wins Utah, Arizona, Georgia and Alaska, states where polls show him vulnerable (also that he wins, in his best case scenario, Ohio, Florida and Iowa + 1 of Maine's electoral votes).
Hillary is at 263
Trump is at 242
Very tall mountain to climb for Trump, especially since Virginia does look solid blue.
So, virtually impossible? Well...
She has an average lead of 2 in North Carolina (a state that is looking really good right now), but the most recent poll there, Elon, which actually polled before the FBI news, had the race tied. I'm curious to see what the next wave of polling shows, but if it leans NC Trump, which is not unfathomable considering Obama lost it in 2012 and barely won it in 2008, the race tightens again - Trump now has 257 electoral votes. So, let's go to Colorado. There, Clinton leads by an average of 4 points. Solid. Not as solid as 2012 - but solid. There have been two recent polls there, tho: Remington Research (a GOP outfit), which had her +1 and a CBS News/YouGov (which had her +3). The Remington Research poll is fishy. They only polled one day's worth, and like I said, it's a Republican pollster. But CBS News/YouGov had her lead at three - and that was before the FBI news broke. That is a two-point increase over their last poll taken in September, though. Who knows how this news shifts that polling, though? Again, we'll have to keep an eye on it. I think Hillary wins Colorado, and her winning it would be enough to put her over 270 in this scenario (barely, by two - but 270 is 270) ... but the margins are so close there, too, that any shift could change the race and force it to come down to Nevada.
Hillary's current lead in Nevada is 1.0, but early voting suggests it's going to be very difficult for Trump to win. I also know that, in the past, both Obama and Reid out-performed their polling, in some instances, by a wide margin, as Nevada is apparently a tough state to poll. But the polls there show a tight, tight race, with Remington Research showing Trump up 4 (same pollster that had Hillary up 1 in Colorado) and Emerson had Clinton +2, which was released before the FBI leak. So, again, we don't know what impact, if any, this'll have on the race.
But you're right - Hillary is the favorite. I said as much. Trump has to run the table, do so perfectly, to win. My football analogy is correct, too, though. Trump is down seven without the ball and time is running out. He needs a few breaks to even get himself in position to win this thing.
HOWEVER, the polls are so close in these states that any shift nationally could impact state polls enough to give Trump an opening. It's not virtually impossible - it's just very, very, very difficult for him to win. Virtually impossible was McCain in 2008 - not Trump in 2016.
The media is doing a great job of continuing to paint this as a close race but it has never been one nor is it now.
It certainly has been a close race. Don't turn into a poll truther.
Yes Trump will get way more votes than we think a sane country should ever give him but he will still lose spectacularly.
I'm sorry, but I feel you're setting yourself up for election night disappointment. Trump is going to lose - but it's not going to be spectacularly and right now, it feels like his loss will be by less than Romney in 2012 and certainly less than McCain's in 2008. I hope you're right - and I'll come back and eat crow if you are, but I feel Hillary is probably going to win this thing by two or three points nationally and 293 electoral votes to 242.
He has to run the board to win and even with the polls tightening that is not going to happen. It just isn't.
It probably isn't. I said as much. I believe Hillary will win. But a week is a lot of time and if the national polls tighten any more, it's going to bleed over into some state polling and then things will get interesting. Not interesting enough to deliver Trump the White House - but interesting enough to leave the election more in doubt than it should be at this point with Trump as the GOP's nominee.
I would be happy to bet on that.
No point in betting on something I agree with you on - I said in my post above I believe Hillary is going to win.
Egnever
(21,506 posts)The polling has been wrong on the republican side for the last two elections.
I expect that continue.
The fundamental problem that trump has despite what polls say is the demographics of the country. What makes up the republican party is no longer enough to win. Be it trump or candidate x The demographics just don't work. To make matters worse for him trump has gone after damn near every demographic he needed to make improvements with and instead has done serious damage.
Nevada is the clearest picture we have at the moment and the polls show an even race. Yet the actual voting is showing something entirely different.
When you actually look at the breakdowns of the demographics instead of the national numbers as a whole the problem trump has starts to clarify. She leads in every minority and among women. That leaves basically white men to trump and that is it and even then the younger the voter the less likely trump has even white men.
It is just unsurmountable. It just is despite the "polls" In order to win Trump had to do something to stop the bleeding from the republican party and not only did he not do that he worsened the situation on most fronts. That doesn't even begin to count all the republicans who have outright stated they wont vote for him.
Nah sorry I don't buy the Idea he has a shot for a minute. There will be a lot of noise and bluster but come the 8th this thing is going to be called the second polls close on the west coast. Possibly even before.
duffyduff
(3,251 posts)It is solidly in the Clinton category and has been for weeks.
Nevada has picked the winner of every presidential election from 1964 onwards.
Otherwise I agree with you. There is no way Trump can win.
Egnever
(21,506 posts)I think the polls are full of it.
I think she wins Nevada easy. If early voting is any indication it will be a walk.
I think the polls are giving about 4 points to trump nationwide.
The new Florida news is an indication of how this one is going to play out across the country. Despite the OP's take.
duffyduff
(3,251 posts)
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)
StevieM
(10,500 posts)already seen some of the effect of the Comey/Chaffetz stunt. I honestly thought that we were going to win by 10 points, carrying Arizona and perhaps Georgia. Now I think we will be lucky to carry Ohio or Iowa, thanks to Comey and Chaffetz.
I also think that this could cost us the Senate races in North Carolina, Missouri and Florida. We will still probably win in Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. And if we hold Nevada then we will have 50 seats in the Senate. With Tim Kaine as VP that puts us in the majority. A tie senate means power sharing, to some extent, and joint committee chairmanships. But Schumer becomes the majority leader.
That majority can be lost in November of next year. Virginia holds off-year elections for governor so that is when the Senate seat will be permanently filled.
Also, Robert Menendez of New Jersey is under indictment. If he has to resign next year then there will be an immediate special election, like there was after Frank Lautenberg died.