The Prophet Nate Silver Has A Message

[Doctor Jack]

Nate Silver tends to be reserved but also hints at developing trends he is seeing or expects. Here is what he said a few minutes ago.

I don’t know that people should necessarily assume that the polls will keep tightening. The way that our model works, I’d guess that it’s more likely than not that Trump will gain a bit further as backlogged polls from the weekend come in. But there’s a world in which the polling over the weekend was a low point for Clinton as the FBI story fades from the news. You already see Google search terms for Clinton returning to normal levels, for instance.

While the FBI talk has died down, Clinton hasn’t really succeeded in making Trump the center of conversation over the final week of the campaign. And Trump’s done a good job of laying low. But a week is a long time, and there may even be time for one more “momentum” shift.

[Democat]

1. Please Hillary Clinton, drop everything you have on Trump now!

Time to put Trump away.

[Farmgirl1961]

2. A "momentum" shift toward whom?

[jcgoldie]

9. From the context

And the fact that the momentum for the past 5 days has been in Trump's direction I think it's safe to assume he means a shift towards HRC.

[Farmgirl1961]

13. I sure hope so!

[CajunBlazer]

3. K&R

The man know what he is talking about and this is good news for Hillary.

[Madam45for2923]

4. Trump is quiet because anything he says could be used against him in a court of law!

because of all the oppo-bombs exploding left and right !!

[tallahasseedem]

5. What do you think this means?

Any guesses?

[Doctor Jack]

8. Sounds like he thinks trumps gains will or have stalled out

And with the FBI shit dying off and mostly behind us, a last second hillary surge is possible....maybe even likely (?).

What I do know is that Nate Silver tends to be very coy but does have a long history of dropping hints about changes he is seeing in the numbers.

[tallahasseedem]

10. Thank you for the reply!

I tend to be level headed, but man, I have never seen anything like what has gone on the past couple of days. I thought I saw it all in 2000!

[pnwmom]

7. I hope some woman comes forward and says or does something that will

get Trump going on a full misogynistic rant!

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Bounce then reversion

I believe in that. It's one of my themes in sports and politics and elsewhere. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning.

But I think the peak of Trump's Comey bounce may be a few days later than Nate Silver suggests. He is using Saturday as the focus. On Monday morning the headlines said that the FBI had obtained a warrant to check the emails. That word warrant alone hints at wrongdoing. Undecided voters who inherited that word early this week are vulnerable to being swayed, even if everything is bogus and disgraceful.

If Hillary receives a reversion I think it will happen later this week, and that the low polling days for her might be Monday through Wednesday. Just instincts. I've wagered on this stuff for 20 years.

[Farmgirl1961]

12. There still seems to be volatility in the 538 polls

with Trump ticking up a bit. Perhaps still picking up the noise from the weekend. Hoping that his polls settle down, flatten out and then start ticking back down for Trump.

He says "Clinton hasn't really succeeded in making Trump the center of conversation over the final week of the campaign". Certainly the M$M and FBI leakage of old emails isn't really helping.

So -- how can she and her surrogates get Trump back on the defensive?