I was looking at the current electoral map

[Tony_FLADEM]

Clinton is projected to win 323 electoral votes and Trump 215.

This assumes she wins all the 2004 John Kerry States (246) plus Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.

Even if you assume she loses Florida, North Carolina and Colorado she would still get to 270 by holding the Kerry states plus Virginia (which Trump isn't really contesting) Nevada (which might be over before November 8th) and New Mexico which is highly unlikely Trump will win.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/#item-2

This is just the worse case scenario and I think she will do better but it's really just a matter of holding the states won in 2004.

[Coyotl]

1. If the swing states go blue, Trump is well below 200. GOTV and we take Texas too. Vamos a ganar!

[center]

[0ccy01]

2. Trump is losing

no way in hell he gets to 270 EVs

[Proud liberal 80]

3. Kerry lost Iowa

But your point is still valid.

That is why I hate this media narrative that trump is winning because he leads in the swing states (particularly Florida and Ohio). All those swing states still don't get him to 270. He has to break the blue wall.

[Tony_FLADEM]

4. I know Kerry lost Iowa. I was assuming Trump would win it in my scenario.

[exboyfil]

5. Clinton can lose

FL
OH
NC
NV
IA
The one EV from ME

and still get 272 EVs

Trump has to break through in one of these states

CO
NH
PA
WI
MN