About that SurveyUSA Poll

[vdogg]

Trump getting 23% Dems and 90% pubs? Surely you jest. Shows Hillary with only 75% dem support and +2 on millenials. Not plausible. I'm thinking the sample sizes for the subgroups are exceptionally small.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwNG-ttXEAAOmXG?format=jpg&name=large

[triron]

1. Hope you are right.

[Charles Bukowski]

2. You really need to hope?

[vdogg]

10. Shh...He doesn't really hope I'm right...

[still_one]

3. It is bullshit. 14% of African Americans are NOT voting for Trump. Somebody is lying to the

pollster, and the number of women voting for trump is also another outlier, which tells me this sampling is not correct

I guess Latinos are included either

[vdogg]

4. Then there's this gem from 2008.

Never forget this.
http://abc11.com/archive/6380065/

In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group.

[LenaBaby61]

5. Even before you posted this information ....

I had a feeling that the internals of this +7 for tRump was a weird poll, and with that information you just posted, well uh ....

tRump has a lead in North Carolina by +7 my fanny

14% African-Americans for tRump is just ...

NO

[still_one]

7. That is the thing that caught my eye. 14% of African Americans ARE NOT VOTING FOR trump.

[vdogg]

9. That would out poll Romney wouldn't it?

And he was a "reasonable" repub. No way a racist outpolls Romney with AA.

[Zynx]

13. It would way outperform Romney.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

6. I believe he is getting 90% Rethugs

They are political cowards who only care about the R next to name despite how bad the guy is.

The other stuff seems ridiculous.

[vdogg]

8. I'll give you that, but he was literally polling 0% AA at one time

We make up a substantial part of the dem base. No way he pulls 23% dems when he's that low with AA.

[StevieM]

11. Excellent point. I never thought that Trump would get 0% of the AA vote, but he also is not going

to get 14 percent.

[triron]

17. I recall that from an earlier poll as well (the 0%)

[StevieM]

12. Thanks for this post. I was getting really scared by that NC poll. (eom)

[LenaBaby61]

16. Continue to NOT get nervous...

Just in case you're one who looks at Nate Silver's sight, and because of that "crazy" poll from NC showing tRump up +7, Nate now says that tRump has a 29% chance to win the presidency, with Hillary falling to 71%, PLUS if that weren't enough he now says that tRump HAS a pathway to the presidency because Hillary's lead in the various polling is "fragile" because he reasons that there have been NO high-quality polls out of the swing states that have shown Hillary with leads for a long while now.

Tomorrow, there will be a WI poll coming out on Wednesday (Marquette Law School Poll) which will be their last election poll before the election taking place on November 8th.

[StevieM]

19. I am mainly concerned that he margin of victory will shrink and it will cost us the Congress.

She was on track for a 10 point win and 375 electoral votes.

Now she will probably win by only a few points.

The Senate might not be taken back. And the House is now out of reach.

[vdogg]

21. Nate has a tendency to troll for clicks by coming up with bonkers scenarios.

The polling by Friday will be telling.

[LenaBaby61]

22. I hear you ....

Which is why I've only gone to 538 only a scant amount of time the last 3 or so months. Not that I don't "trust" Nate, but uh--what you said about clicks

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Survey USA is generally good but can throw in clunkers

For betting purposes I always thought their midterm polls were superior than general election polls. When either Survey USA or Mason-Dixon threw in an outlier state polling number in a quiet race during a midterm I'd pay attention.

This one obviously has some strange tilts.

[Dawson Leery]

15. Himmler Jr. has but 3% of the black vote nationally.

I don't know why but he does.

There is no way he is getting 20% in any state.

With that said, this poll had NC going to McCain by 19 points 8 years back.

Obama won the state by 1 point.

That is absolutely alot to be by off.

[triron]

18. Thanks that is comforting

[vdogg]

20. This may not be as much of a factor as the crosstabs

But the landline to cell phone ratio seems high.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of North Carolina adults 10/28/16 through 10/31/16, in interviewing conducted entirely after the release of a letter from FBI Director James Comey to members of Congress. Of the adults, 718 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 659 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by 2 points in 2012; Obama defeated Republican John McCain by less than 1 point in 2008. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.