*****BIG NEWS ON FLORIDA>>CHECK LAWRENCE OD RIGHT NOW*** updated HRC 48-40

[TommyGfromTheD]

Tom Bonier is on! 28% GOP voters already voted for HRC. It's not just a poll. It's a partial survey of people that have actually voted.

[geek tragedy]

1. the big news is a damn poll? nt

[TheLibIn615]

5. Well, if HRC wins Florida, Trump has no path.

So a large lead is, imo, bigger than any news story bombshell.

[geek tragedy]

8. it's still a poll. a poll isn't news nt

[DarthDem]

10. Do Some Reading

We all know your shtick is to spread doom and gloom. But if you look a little harder, you'll see this isn't just a "poll."

[geek tragedy]

11. yes, it is just a poll

one using a voter file, which is good, but also one that has a relatively small sample size

[obamanut2012]

18. yup

[ScienceIsGood]

14. NEWS: Newly received or noteworthy information, especially about recent events

[ScienceIsGood]

12. Why do you always seem so mean and looking for an argument? n/t

[geek tragedy]

15. you must be new . . . it's kinda my thing nt

[LisaL]

13. Of people who already voted.

Their votes are in the bank.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Early vote survey

Could be good

[Dem2]

6. Sounds really good

I hope he's right

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Hillary +8 in early voting

Wow!

[geek tragedy]

9. small sample size--311 early voters total

So 120 or so Republicans for that 28%

Dubious.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. Not a small sample for an exit poll

This is a poll of only people who have voted.

[workinclasszero]

17. Get happy!

[Cosmocat]

20. Heartening

NM

[Gymbo]

21. So who do we trust?

The Tampa Bay Times published today, gives an entirely different story. http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/early-vote-numbers-in-florida-should-spook-hillary-clinton/2300811

[writes3000]

22. You can trust both. If even 20% of Republicans are voting for Hillary, we win!

Polling Republicans and Democrats and assuming that each group will only vote for their nominee, might be a big mistake here.

[Silver Gaia]

23. Trust THIS. This is more like an exit poll.

They are talking to people who have actually voted. The question is "How DID you vote?" instead of "How do you PLAN to vote?" One is an absolute, the other is a projection.

[triron]

25. This crossover if occuring in other states

may explain why one recent NC poll that also gave early vote results was significantly above the dem vote advantage.

[Silver Gaia]

28. interesting point...

[BadDog40]

24. Wouldnt the normal FL polls reflect this?

How can there be such a huge discrepancy?

[triron]

26. Not that huge.

Polls are a very small sample of the voting pop.
Also sampling methodology can insert a bias even if unintentional.

[lapfog_1]

27. TargetSmart

is a "exit" poll... better than an exit poll.

They got the list of early voters, they selected a survey sample from those voters that represent all likely voters (demographics, party affiliation, etc).

The cannot get it wrong UNLESS the republican voters surveyed LIED about their vote.

The only other possibility is that the never trump republicans decided (independently) to vote early (which is possible since some people have a visceral dislike of the orange Cheeto).