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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTargetSmart: Clinton outpaces Trump by + 17 % margin - 55 % to 38 % among early voters in Florida
https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-VotersAs of the morning of November 1 st , 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida.
Leveraging TargetSmarts proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they
had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent. Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot.
Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubios direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the vote among them to Rubios 47 percent. And, among non -early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphys 39 percent.
Leveraging TargetSmarts proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they
had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent. Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot.
Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubios direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the vote among them to Rubios 47 percent. And, among non -early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphys 39 percent.
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TargetSmart: Clinton outpaces Trump by + 17 % margin - 55 % to 38 % among early voters in Florida (Original Post)
factfinder_77
Nov 2016
OP
Triron: crossover votes are common, the database of 2008 and 2012 tells HRC and they may have
MyNameIsKhan
Nov 2016
#3
Jnew28
(931 posts)1. Wait until the next rapey tape is dropped...
triron
(21,915 posts)2. I posted this earlier tonite
but needs exposure so thank you.
I have to ask this question: Is a voter who has already voted less likely to answer a poll?
Don't know if any studies have been done on this.
The reason I suspect it may be true is it may account for some tendency of polls to trend toward tightening.
Just a hypothesis.
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)3. Triron: crossover votes are common, the database of 2008 and 2012 tells HRC and they may have
shared with Dem firm targetsmart to find out how many defections really happened. So with pretty good accuracy they can figure out defections... btw even if defections stops, HRC still wins by +1... why we can trust a 500 voters monmouth poll but why we have trouble trusting Exit + EV data ?