2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWho cares what national polls say! That's NOT how we elect our president
http://www.electoral-vote.com/Clinton 323, Trump 215.
I have been following this website since the Bush-Gore election. When Gore and Kerry 'lost', the Electoral Vote was extremely close and truly coming down to those few swing states like Pennsylvania and Virginia.
This site hasn't had Clinton under 300 for months.
Clinton has a very solid 263 if you eliminate those states that are barely blue (Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado). Clinton needs to win just ONE of them in order to secure the presidency.
If we did the same for Trump, he only has 152 votes that look to be pretty much in the Red. After that he has to find 118 Electoral Votes. His barely red states like Ohio, Iowa, South Carolina and Georgia only would make up 63 extra votes (which puts him at 215). He would have to get ALL FOUR of those states that are barely blue PLUS keep his barely red states too.
We still need to campaign hard until the bitter end but this one is looking good for Hillary!
SouthernProgressive
(1,810 posts)As does everyone involved. They create their own narrative by the media. That in itself is huge.
MiniMe
(21,714 posts)But as we all know, that isn't what happened.
SouthernProgressive
(1,810 posts)Maybe you can point me to where I stated polls are accurate. The basis of your response.
Strange.
MiniMe
(21,714 posts)My point is that National Polls mean nothing. Only the state by state totals mean anything, because it is all about the electoral college.
Maeve
(42,281 posts)Unfortunately, the media is interested in THE STORY of the race, not in the race itself. THE STORY has to be conpelling and keep people tuned in, so it's going to be character-driven and leap from crisis to crisis. Nevermind that the actual race has been pretty consistant all along.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)How does one enjoy the privilege of being an ignorant racist redneck? By living in the middle of an entire bait-bucket of other ignorant racist rednecks.
They can only exist where they can imagine themselves to be an overwhelming majority, where they have successfully districted minorities onto reservations and into certain neighborhoods and city sectors.
That only still works in about fifteen states that don't even control 100 electoral votes.
People who have to live in proximity to people unlike themselves soon find that they are friends, not the enemy. The friendship effect is already beginning to show up in places like Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.
The rest are insignificant and beneath contempt.