AVERAGE the polls, don't use individual polls as therapy

[geek tragedy]

Lots of people have been talking about the TargetSmart Clinton +8% in Florida poll, and how it shows we've already won Florida.

But, they're not talking about how earlier this week, the NY Times/Siena College came out with a Trump +4% in Florida poll.

Both used the actual voter file rather than random digit dialing.

It's simultaneously possible that (1) both pollsters did everything right and (b) got samples that were not representative of the electorate.

There is the possibility of winning, and the possibility of losing.

[molova]

1. How dare you not believe Hillary is ahead by 19% in Michigan

You concern troll you.

[geek tragedy]

2. According to yesterday's polls, Clinton is up by 8% in Florida but down by 7% in NC.

According to Monday's polls, Clinton is up by 6% in NC and down by 6% in Florida.

Some people use polls as comfort porn, others use them as panic porn.

They should be used as data points.

[rock]

3. Averaging polls

Is not good methodology.

[andym]

4. Need to use weighted averages

Like Nate Silver based on poll quality.

[Adrahil]

5. Nothing wrong with a morale boost...

but always keep one foot in reality!

[scheming daemons]

6. TargetSmart's uses ACTUAL exit-polling... not polling of future intention. *BIG* difference.

[geek tragedy]

7. NY Times also asked people if they had voted nt

[scheming daemons]

8. Difference is that TargetSmart had Florida list of actual voters... didn't have to "ask" them

[geek tragedy]

10. NYT also uses the list of actual voters.

https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/trump-takes-four-point-lead-over-clinton-46-42

This New York Times Upshot/Siena College survey was conducted October 25-27, 2016 by telephone calls to 814 likely voters. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on both their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. - See more at: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/trump-takes-four-point-lead-over-clinton-46-42#sthash.TKCIsfaa.dpuf

[Joe941]

9. I believe TargetSmart's +8 for Clinton.

Most people here also believe it from what I gather.