2016 Postmortem

Dem2

(8,168 posts) Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:00 PM Nov 2016

Ipsos State polls are out NH +6, NV +12, WI +9, CO +8, FL Tie, PA +3, VA +6, OH Tie,

NC -2, MI +2

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

As expected, these polls looking good to us laymen, Nate lowered her odds by 0.5%. Lol. I take that back, increased by 0.5% - there was an error on his site?

12 replies

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Ipsos State polls are out NH +6, NV +12, WI +9, CO +8, FL Tie, PA +3, VA +6, OH Tie, (Original Post) Dem2 Nov 2016 OP

Sweet! jcgoldie Nov 2016 #1

Not perfect, but I'll take it! Zynx Nov 2016 #2

Bring'er home now. forest444 Nov 2016 #3

excellent! so all are winnable (meaning FL & OH being tied) no matter what other polls might say Divine Discontent Nov 2016 #4

Ipsos state polls have a great variation in sample size historically triron Nov 2016 #6

Nevada is high but the rest look right. RandySF Nov 2016 #7

MI is more than +2. Barack_America Nov 2016 #11

Trend Lines warpigs72 Nov 2016 #8

Yes, today may end up being the 1st flat day in many days Dem2 Nov 2016 #10

it's weird... even with these awesome poll numbers I'm still so nervous renate Nov 2016 #9

jcgoldie

(11,627 posts)

1. Sweet!

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:01 PM

Nov 2016

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

2. Not perfect, but I'll take it!

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:01 PM

Nov 2016

forest444

(5,902 posts)

3. Bring'er home now.

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:02 PM

Nov 2016

Divine Discontent

(21,056 posts)

4. excellent! so all are winnable (meaning FL & OH being tied) no matter what other polls might say

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:02 PM

Nov 2016

triron

(21,994 posts)

6. Ipsos state polls have a great variation in sample size historically

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:10 PM

Nov 2016

RandySF

(58,696 posts)

7. Nevada is high but the rest look right.

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:10 PM

Nov 2016

Barack_America

(28,876 posts)

11. MI is more than +2.

Reply to RandySF (Reply #7)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:24 PM

Nov 2016

Believe me.

I think he may be factoring that POS Mitchell/FOX2 that failed so spectacularly during the primaries.

warpigs72

(31 posts)

8. Trend Lines

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:14 PM

Nov 2016

That's because the trend lines are still +1.5% for Trump. So for NC, Hillary is +1.6% on average, which includes the bogus 7% Survey USA poll. This gets net down to even after the trend line adjustment. So that one bogus poll plays a large roll in this. Once the polls from the phony email scandal gets pushed back the trend lines will normalize and the results will be more in line with other poll aggregators.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

10. Yes, today may end up being the 1st flat day in many days

Reply to warpigs72 (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:23 PM

Nov 2016

This could start bending that tangent/trendline thing and let us breath a tiny bit.

renate

(13,776 posts)

9. it's weird... even with these awesome poll numbers I'm still so nervous

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:20 PM

Nov 2016

I'd sure rather be us than them, but I want to see him at about 25%, not anywhere near close. I just don't get it... how can someone like him be within shouting distance of the Oval Office? I'm so sad and upset that so damn many people in this country are proud to be voting for him. And I'm worried about the Russians being able to hack the vote. The vote-switching that's been reported doesn't worry me quite so much--it's what goes on in the depths of those voting machines that scares me, and in a close election they could possibly get away with it.

I know I'm being silly, but oh my gosh I can't wait for this to be over and done with.

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