OK, here's a poll puzzle (Hassan vs Ayotte)

[LAS14]

These are probabilities, not averages.

538 Hassan 55%, Ayotte 45%

Upshot Hassan 45%, Ayotte 55%

Can anyone explain this????

NOTE - A couple of respondents seem to think 538 is giving Hillary a worse probability. It's Upshot that does. And I don't know where the 85% is coming from.




Rats. I can't seem to get two different public links from DropBox. Anyway, the other aggregator looks like this, but with the 44 and 45% reversed.

[BzaDem]

1. 538 includes polls from Pulse Opinion Research (i.e. Rasmussen polls).

I assume the upshot does not, because they are being paid for by a third party (Auto Alliance).

[MADem]

2. UPSHOT is BULLSHIT! They do not care if a poll is "reliable."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/08/fivethirtyeight_vs_the_upshot_who_should_you_trust_to_forecast_the_2016.html

The Upshot explains its methodology in less detail, though Josh Katz’s write-up of the presidential prediction model does go over the general principles. Unlike FiveThirtyEight, the Upshot does not weight its polls based on pollster reliability, focusing exclusively on sample sizes and recency. The Upshot’s regressions are also simpler than FiveThirtyEight’s, relying more on past election data than the demographic information and regional groupings that Silver incorporates. The model is also designed to be “slow to move.”

Garbage in/garbage out.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

4. And yet, Upshot gives Hillary a better chance than 538

85% last I saw.


Soooooo, how do you mitigate that?

[MADem]

5. Did you read the excerpt I offered? Garbage in/garbage out.

They don't care if a poll is "reliable" or any good, they throw it in the pot anyway.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

7. So you're saying their 86% (now) for Hillary is bullshit

That's too bad, I liked it.

[MADem]

10. I like a hundred percent better....or 99%...which is what Princeton has.

Not 100%
November 3rd, 2016, 4:55am by Sam Wang
For a moment this morning, the top banner probability has read 100%. Sorry, rounding glitch in the software. It should simply say >99%. Fixing soon.

http://election.princeton.edu/

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

11. Okayyyyy

So 538 must be bullshit too.

Honestly, I think 100% is a bit foolish. I'd say 85-90 is about right, due to Clinton's firewall hinging on one huge state that has no early voting, Pennsylvania.

[MADem]

14. 538 frets and is overly cautious, even pessimistic.

They often--but not always--get it right.

Here's what I really think: GOTV. Do what you can. Stop fretting about numbers because they don't mean what they used to.

I used to respond to polls all the time...well, if I was in USA and the phone rang.

Now I only pick up my land line phone if I recognize the number. They call me, I don't answer. I'll bet I'm not the only one.

And I have a HOUSE FULL of Hillary voters--we're cheek by jowl up in here.

[LAS14]

15. 538 has Hassan winning and Ayotte losing. See my reply #13

[MADem]

16. I hope they are right.

All I can say is, if you go by commercials, Hassan has Ayotte beat hands down. Hassan talks about issues and programs, Ayotte's commercials show her playing basketball with her kid (one of the commercials is nothing but outtakes), playing softball, and running.

My attitude? If she likes exercise so much, she should go get a goddamned job running a gym. She's unfit as a Senator.

[LAS14]

6. That's the opposite of what I saw this evening. See %s in the OP.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

8. I was talking about Hillary in that post

Not Hassan/Ayotte.

I was just wondering if people think it's bullshit garbage when it's better for our side.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

9. Don't know what you're looking at, Hillary is at 86% in upshot.

66 or 67 percent in 538

[LAS14]

12. The post was about Ayotte vs Hassan

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

3. You're dealing with coin flip level probability

Also, yes, 538 does discount certain pollsters.

[LAS14]

13. I just noticed that the Upshot's Ayotte 55% line is in blue.

538 has Hassan at 55%. Could there be something wrong with this Upshot report? Why would Ayotte be in blue?