#NVGOTV in Nevada (NV) 13TH day. Dems lead by > 38,000 EV, 42% to 37%

[ffr]

10:15 PM PST Hillary For America got a nice shot in the arm today for the democratic Nevada firewall, adding 5,794 to its lead in Clark County. The SoS PDF is off by 1 vote still, a calculation error probably, but nobody there has caught it.


Washoe County Dems lost the north by 355 EV, while Clark won by 5,794. As of this moment, democrats have a net lead of ~38,491 EV after 13 days of early voting, with just a few other red counties not reporting in to the SoS.

Democratic GOTV surges FORWARD TOGETHER.

No other news source has these numbers. When the SoS reports statewide figures tomorrow, the total EV lead should be close to what is listed in the title.

Statewide EV (ballots & absentee)
Total: 635,536
Dems: 267,770
Reps: 235,073
Other: 132,694

Percentages
Dems: 42.3%
Reps: 36.6%
Other: 21.1%

Nevada SoS PDF <here>
Washoe County & Clark County elections results also included.

Clark County EV 12th day
Total: 40,660
Dems: 18,122
Reps: 12,328
Other: 10,210

Clark County EV Democratic Firewall 13th day
Total: 466,670
Dems: 213,700
Reps: 152,334
Other: 100,637

Clark County Dem Firewall: 61,366

***** Thank you HFA workers and volunteers! *****

[vdogg]

1. Over 60

We're past the point where Ralston says it's unwinnable for Trump.

[triron]

3. Please explain

SO is Nevada pretty much in the bag for HRC (and probably dem down tickets)?

[vdogg]

5. Ralston said once the firewall hits 60k votes, NV is unwinnable for Trump. Literally mathematically

Impossible

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Comparing these #s to the actual overall 2012 vote total...

Obama won Nevada 52-46 - or a margin of 67,806 - over Romney.

There was a total of 1,014,918 votes cast in 2012 in Nevada.

So far, 635,536 have voted.

That means 62% of 2012's vote total has already been met in early voting. If 2016 matches 2012, which it will probably exceed when you factor in population growth, that means you're looking at less than 40% (when it's all said and done) of the total vote actually coming on election day.

Looking at exit poll data from 2012, Obama won 96% of the Democratic vote and 7% of the GOP vote. He actually lost the independent vote 50-43 to Romney.

But let's assume Hillary does as well among Democratic voters as Obama did in 2012. Right off the bat, Democrats are making up a larger percentage of this early vote than they did the overall vote in 2012 (Democrats made up 38% of the overall vote in 2012). So, say Hillary is winning the early Democratic vote 96-4. So, that's 257,059 of the 267,770 early votes. Say Trump is winning 93% of the GOP vote like Romney in 2012 (maybe a bit generous) and he's got 218,617. If the independent vote breaks down similarly to 2012, Hillary would win 57,058 or so (assuming Other is all independents who are voting Trump/Clinton, so not an exact number). Trump would be at 66,347 - or around there.

So, overall, Hillary would lead Trump approximately 314,117 to 284,964 - or a margin of 29,153. So, that's 38,653 difference from Obama's overall margin in Nevada in 2012. This is approximate, of course, because it assumes all the votes will break down Hillary/Trump, which is not the case. We know Stein and Johnson will grab some votes. But I can't tell who they're going to take from - whether it's Republicans or Democrats or Other.

In 2012, over 700,000 votes were cast in early voting (1). The current margin today is 635,536, so, less than in 2012 but there's still a few days to go, which it should inch closer to the total seen in 2012. Of that, Democrats have a 32,697 advantage on Republicans, about 15,000 fewer than 2012 early voting - however, again, as the overall total rises, that number may rise too.

All in all, the numbers are pointing to a Hillary win - though probably a bit narrower than Obama's overall near 7% win four years ago. I'd peg her at being on pace to win Nevada by 4 or so points.

So, stay tuned...

[grantcart]

11. Excellent calculation

However

Given the state's Mormon population of 175,000 I would guess that Trump will not meet 85% Republican retention and Sec Clinton will exceed 95%.

I am guessing that will push it to 6% or possibly match Obama's 7% which would almost certainly bring the Senate and 3 Congressional seats.

All in all good news.

[vadermike]

2. Hell yeah

Suck it comey !!

[Wellstone ruled]

4. Yes,we got this!

Amazed at the number of folks who did early voting and their comments this evening while phone banking. Nothing but positive responses in my two hundred calls. Early voting ends tomorrow night and the polls are going to be jammed with voters. Most that I talked to were so fed up with Trump they can not wait till Tuesday evening.

Nevada is going Blue big time.

[regnaD kciN]

6. I don't want to be overly picky…

…but, since this doesn't count tallied votes but only the party affiliation of voters, isn't predicting results based on the D/R split sheer guesswork, especially in light of the very large "other" figure? Sure, if all Ds vote for Clinton, and all Rs vote for Drumpf, and the "other" voters split evenly, we've got a solid cushion, but I know plenty of places in the west where a huge number of "independents" (i.e. "other&quot are conservatives of a Tea Party nature who view the Republican Party as biased to the big banks, etc., and opposed to the "little guy," but who will reliably vote for the most conservative candidate on the ballot. If many of the Nevada "others" are like that, our "firewall" may turn out to be a chimera.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Every Democratic voter in Nevada could have chosen, "None of These"

I'll take my chances on normalcy

[regnaD kciN]

9. I hope you're right…

It's just that I've seen that phenomenon of "independents" in the mountain and desert west enough to not assume they'll be split 50-50. And there are a quite-large percentage of them.

[vdogg]

13. Jon Ralston has been doing this for several years

And he's correctly predicted the outcome of each Nevada election for just as long. We've got this.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Need another big day tomorrow

Not only for Hillary but the senate race and NV-3. I don't want Danny Tarkanian's losing streak to end.

When Ralston reports heavy turnout early in the day, that's always good news. High turnout in Clark early voting means Democrats. Besides, gaining a nice edge during heavy turnout is more significant than the same net amidst lower turnout. For example, if we won Clark County on Thursday 5794-0, the net would be the same but those Republican voters are still eligible to show up later. The idea is to squeeze closer and closer to full turnout while expanding the lead.

Now I'm hoping for 67,500 net in Clark, splitting the difference between 70,000 initial goal and my 65,000 from a few days ago.

[grantcart]

12. excellent post