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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumElectoral Votes 11/5/2016 - Looking awesome for Hillary
http://www.electoral-vote.com/Hillary 317 and Trump 221
If I remove the barely blue states (FL, CO, NC, NH), Hillary is at 260. Winning NH only would not be enough, she just needs to pull in FL, CO or NC and she'll win the election.
If I remove the barely red states from Trump (NV, AZ, OH, IA, AK and SC), Trump would be down to 168 which means he'd have to find 102 Electoral votes to get the win - other words pick up all the barely red states AND still find another 39 Electoral votes from the 53 Barely Blue states.
Consider this - Alaska and South Carolina are in play for Hillary, which I have never seen in the 20 years I've been reading Electoral Votes.com. NEVER. When Bush 'won' - he had states like Pennsylvania and Virginia in play (these are looking safe for Hillary but never say never). When Obama won, he wasn't even close in states like South Carolina or Alaska.
The media needs to keep this race close so they use National Polls which to be honest, sound about right adding up the popular vote. But Gary Johnson is still making a big hurt for Trump in states like Colorado, Arizona and Ohio. New Mexico, which is normally a swing state is now unwinnable for Trump thanks to Johnson.
So when you see national polls showing a tight race just realize it's bullshit. Hillary has this!
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Electoral Votes 11/5/2016 - Looking awesome for Hillary (Original Post)
LynneSin
Nov 2016
OP
I seriously hope on election night that NC goes blue and I can relax the rest of the evening.
TrekLuver
Nov 2016
#3
If either one of them go blue we can celebrate when those polls close...please confirm.
TrekLuver
Nov 2016
#5
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)1. Trump is not getting Nevada
Polls that show a close race are lagging in the state's current demographics
barbtries
(28,787 posts)2. it's the 4th
thank you for the analysis
TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)3. I seriously hope on election night that NC goes blue and I can relax the rest of the evening.
I'm seeing that whatever way you slice it he NEEDS NC no matter what.
Johnny2X2X
(19,038 posts)4. FL is going blue too
When they call NC and FL it's time to pop the champagne.
TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)5. If either one of them go blue we can celebrate when those polls close...please confirm.