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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPredictwise shows bleeding has stopped and momentum shifting back to Hillary today
She bottomed out at around an 83% chance of winning yesterday and has moved up to 86% chance today. They also show states the media is sounding alarms on to be quite safe. Nevada at 84% for Hillary and New Hampshire at 77%.
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner
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Predictwise shows bleeding has stopped and momentum shifting back to Hillary today (Original Post)
Quixote1818
Nov 2016
OP
It may be good that it looked closer because anyone thinking she had it won and was considering
Quixote1818
Nov 2016
#3
Wounded Bear
(58,634 posts)1. There have been a lot of last minute poll releases...
showing small margins and ties that I don't necessarily trust.
Overall, the probabilities remain high because Trump still has to run 5 or 6 states and it doesn't seem very likely that he would get all of them. If Clinton wins FL or NC, along with PA, it pretty much over.
Quixote1818
(28,927 posts)3. It may be good that it looked closer because anyone thinking she had it won and was considering
staying home probably felt a real urgency to get out and vote and not take any chances.
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)2. Predictwise has correct states, Obama 2012 -OH, -IA, +NC
this is what I am speculating will be the results.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)4. Predictwise is kind of an odd system…
combining polling info with betting markets. Better than having the numbers there dropping, but I suspect a lot of their number is based on "gut feelings" rather than actual hard information.
Quixote1818
(28,927 posts)7. PredictIt is mirroring Predictwise
Clinton up 5 cents and Trump down 3 cents
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)5. Yeah
femmocrat
(28,394 posts)8. They also have FL going for the democrats, while 538 has it pink.