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Quixote1818

(28,927 posts)
Fri Nov 4, 2016, 06:15 PM Nov 2016

Predictwise shows bleeding has stopped and momentum shifting back to Hillary today




She bottomed out at around an 83% chance of winning yesterday and has moved up to 86% chance today. They also show states the media is sounding alarms on to be quite safe. Nevada at 84% for Hillary and New Hampshire at 77%.

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner
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Predictwise shows bleeding has stopped and momentum shifting back to Hillary today (Original Post) Quixote1818 Nov 2016 OP
There have been a lot of last minute poll releases... Wounded Bear Nov 2016 #1
It may be good that it looked closer because anyone thinking she had it won and was considering Quixote1818 Nov 2016 #3
Predictwise has correct states, Obama 2012 -OH, -IA, +NC MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #2
Predictwise is kind of an odd system… regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #4
PredictIt is mirroring Predictwise Quixote1818 Nov 2016 #7
Yeah Gothmog Nov 2016 #5
They also have FL going for the democrats, while 538 has it pink. femmocrat Nov 2016 #8

Wounded Bear

(58,634 posts)
1. There have been a lot of last minute poll releases...
Fri Nov 4, 2016, 06:19 PM
Nov 2016

showing small margins and ties that I don't necessarily trust.

Overall, the probabilities remain high because Trump still has to run 5 or 6 states and it doesn't seem very likely that he would get all of them. If Clinton wins FL or NC, along with PA, it pretty much over.

Quixote1818

(28,927 posts)
3. It may be good that it looked closer because anyone thinking she had it won and was considering
Fri Nov 4, 2016, 06:22 PM
Nov 2016

staying home probably felt a real urgency to get out and vote and not take any chances.

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
4. Predictwise is kind of an odd system…
Fri Nov 4, 2016, 06:23 PM
Nov 2016

…combining polling info with betting markets. Better than having the numbers there dropping, but I suspect a lot of their number is based on "gut feelings" rather than actual hard information.

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