We need the Senate, 538 is showing NOT good news.

[a kennedy]

Gridlock, gridlock, gridlock. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

[geek tragedy]

1. screw 538, nt

[a kennedy]

3. Is there another site that shows Dems taking back the Senate??

[Silent3]

4. Here, but it's only showing 56%

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html

[Thrill]

5. No and that Feingold Poll

was not very good. Jeesh. Really Wisconsin Johnson?

[moonscape]

24. I had thought Feingold was a lock - uch. Want him back so badly n/t

[BumRushDaShow]

11. Follow Sam Wang

http://election.princeton.edu/

[Silent3]

13. Oh, and Sam Wang (Princeton Election Consortium) has the odds up to 76%.

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

[geek tragedy]

8. .

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016

(more accurate than 538, btw)

Democrats need to win 5 of the following:

Illinois
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Missouri
Indiana
Florida

Three of those are looking very good (PA, IL, WI) and a fourth is also looking good due to GOTV (NV).

That means if they win IN, or NC, or NH, or MO, they retake the Senate.

[JHan]

2. Exorcise thineself of DXXXVIII

[asiliveandbreathe]

6. I'll take +5 - 51D-49R....538

[unblock]

7. we'll have gridlock regardless.

at a minimum, the house will remain republican.

which means, they'll pass nothing except absolutely essential stuff -- any even that they'll hold hostage.

a democratic senate will be nice for nominations, particularly judges, but republicans can still filibuster supreme court justices.
in theory we can change the rules with a simple majority but in practice blue dogs are reluctant to support this, so it's unlikely unless we get *at least* 52 seats; that might not even be enough.

point is, legislative gridlock is all bug guaranteed. the only question is if we'll have nomination/appointment gridlock as well.

[vdogg]

10. Lots of ticket splitting it seems.

[kevin881]

12. 538 shows hillary winning right now. -nt

[smorkingapple]

14. Comey fucked up the Senate. That'll be his legacy in this race

Once that came out any coattails she may have had were eliminated.

[triron]

15. PEC

still has Dem control prob over 70%
http://election.princeton.edu/

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

16. WTF happened in IN? Just a few days ago it was showing the opposite result.... nt

[radius777]

19. RCP has it as tossup now, but I can't see

Bayh losing there, he's lead there consistently aside from the few polls, and is a guy who is liked there, even if it is a red state.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html#polls

I guess it all comes down to the margin Trump gets there, and the degree of cross ticket voting.

[Dawson Leery]

23. That Todd Young is a tax cheat

yet has been accusing Evan of being dishonest in his work.

[Rstrstx]

17. Try pollster from huffington, they're at 91% for 50 or more Ds

And they were one of the slowest models to come around, insisting until about 10 days ago that Rs had about a 2/3 chance of holding the senate

[Dawson Leery]

18. The consensus is that Democrats will gain 6 seats, 52-48.

Nate Silver is but a Republican whore.

[FormerDittoHead]

22. Good job, Mr. Comey! PS: Senate elections look worse in 2018.

The Senate was their fallback position.

And things are going to get worse:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/even-if-democrats-win-the-senate-in-2016-their-majority-is-unlikely-to-endure/2016/10/23/443b9bec-9930-11e6-b4c9-391055ea9259_story.html

The numbers for that year are stunning: 25 Democratic or Democratic-affiliated independents are up for reelection, compared with just eight Republicans. That’s as lopsided an election cycle as you will ever see.

But a look inside the numbers makes the Democrats’ challenge in 2018 all the more daunting. Fully 20 percent of the 25 Democratic seats are in states that then-Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried in 2012 (and even Trump is likely to carry on Nov. 8): Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

All five Democratic incumbents in those states are expected to run for reelection, a prospect that gives Democrats a chance in each. But with 2018 looking almost certain to be the first midterm election of a Hillary Clinton presidency, it’s hard to see how her party avoids major losses in red states.