TWO REASONS TRUMP COULD ACTUALLY WIN (AND THREE REASONS WHY HE WON’T)

[applegrove]

Tina Nguyen at Vanity Fair

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/trump-clinton-presidential-election-polls?mbid=social_twitter

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The myth of the “secret” Trump voter

“The silent majority is back,” Trump declared less than a week after Clinton’s F.B.I. drama broke out into the open. He was referring to a longstanding belief, possibly backed by political science, that there exist a vast swath of Trump supporters too embarrassed to tell pollsters they plan to vote for him. “When I poll, I do fine. But when I run, I do much better,” he bragged.

Experts have thrown cold water on that idea. A POLITICO/Morning Consult study this week suggests that the myth of the shy Trump voter may be only half-right: according to the survey, Hillary Clinton led Trump by five points, 52 to 47, whereas if asked in an online poll or an automated call—two situations in which there was no possibility of social judgment—that gap narrowed to three points, with Clinton leading 51 to 48. Still, the effect was marginal, and Clinton won in both scenarios.

Nate Cohn at the Upshot has argued that the mysterious newly registered voter is actually more liberal than most pundits have assumed. While Trump may have more enthusiastic white supporters, data shows no new registration “surge” in this category, whereas more younger white voters, minorities, and women registered for the first time. Pollsters and analysts, Cohn mused, were ignoring these “missing nonwhite voters,” and that “it’s Mrs. Clinton—not Mr. Trump—who stands to gain from a surge of new voters.”

Other data also support the idea that polling is underestimating Clinton’s support. While black turnout has been soft compared to four years ago Latinos—who are usually under-polled—appear to be registering and voting at higher levels than before. Talking Points Memo reports that Latino early voting is up 100 percent in Florida, 60 percent in North Carolina, and 25 percent in Colorado and Nevada. Latino Decisions, a Latino advocacy group, told TPM that they are projecting as many as 3.5 million more Latinos will vote in 2016 than in 2012, which could help her win all four aforementioned swing states.




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[NastyWomen]

1. All I can say is

Thank you to my Hispanic, Muslim, Asian, Cuban, African American, and sane white men and women who voted for HRC.