538.com has Hillary down in Fl. by almost 4 points

[jg10003]

I am very worried about Fl. I live in Broward County, the most democratic county in the state. I see more pro Trump bumper stickers, lawn signs, and people waving signs on street corners then I do for Hillary. Of course this is my own subjective impression, and it could be that Trump supporters just make more noise then sane people.

I don't have much hope for NC because of all the voter suppression. So it all comes down to NV and NH. NH is Bernie's backyard, I hope he spends the next 3 days there.

[yardwork]

1. We're ok in NC. Good court decisions are helping.

[MountainMazza]

2. Breathe....

She's got this.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Forget 538. Look at Princeton and Upshot.

http://election.princeton.edu/category/2016-election/
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

[Ellipsis]

4. lighten up ...NCs voter purge was restored.

[helpisontheway]

5. Steve Schales (Obama campaign) has been posting positive things about Florida

all day. He said it looks good for Hillary. He is the one that told Obama that he would win Florida in 2008.

https://mobile.twitter.com/steveschale

[still_one]

23. My call banking from California into Florida is very positive for Hillary

[Silent3]

6. I think you're misreading what those numbers mean.

It's not 48% of the vote vs. 52% of the vote, it just means a slightly less than 50/50 chance of Clinton winning Florida. I don't think the model takes into account the good news we've been hearing about the early vote turnout.

[regnaD kciN]

14. It doesn't…

Nate got into quite the Twitter war about not including early-voting information, saying that was just "making shit up."

[still_one]

24. exactly, it is percent probability

[tarheelsunc]

7. Not 100% but I'm pretty sure I saw this exact post a few nights ago.

I specifically remember the "all the voter suppression" line.

[Squinch]

11. Oy, there's a lot of that going around here.

[sharp_stick]

13. Tell me about it

Lots of people are "very worried" lately. Funny how they only get so "very worried" right before an election.

[regnaD kciN]

15. Well, to be honest, this election is a lot more worrying than the past couple…

…if only because one possible outcome is so dire.

[jg10003]

36. Right. I disagreed with McCain and Rommney, but I didn't fear....

for the very existence of the republic if they had been elected.

[stopbush]

8. !

538.

[scheming daemons]

9. I'm concerned about your concern

Especially since you can't read the 538 numbers properly.

[grantcart]

18. Lol

[regnaD kciN]

10. HuffPost has her up 2.4 points there right now…

…and predicts that she'll wind up winning by at least 3.1%. They give odds on her winning the state as 93.8%. While Upshot and PEC aren't as wildly positive, the former puts our odds at 69%, while PEC puts it in the 60-79% range.

[ham_actor]

12. 538

Seems to be the outlier. Every other site had her up on Trump. So either they're wrong or everyone else is.

[vadermike]

16. I know

We are giving Nate shit But isn't he usually the most accurate ? Altho recent polling has give Hillary the lead in FL I don't understand how Nate has her behind

[Lindalouuu]

17. I find that hard to believe

I live In St Lucie county. Trump signs everywhere here too. I looked up early voting stats and if they are any indication of anything. Things look good for us and Hillary. The polls are making me crazy.

[still_one]

30. That is exactly right. Early votes, republican cross over votes, and Latinos I don't think are

getting factored in properly

[Jason1961]

19. 270 is ALL that counts

Our mandate is the same if we hit 538 EVs as it is 270. We're pretty much guaranteed to hit 270, barring some major disaster like footage of Hillary on the Grassy Knoll or proof she helped the Japanese pull off Pearl Harbor; I use these two extreme examples because that's what it would have to be for Trump to win.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

20. I'm in a red county

When I voted early it seemed mostly people voting Hillary.

[still_one]

22. My call banking into Florida I am getting very positive responses. They are voting early, and they

are pumped up for Hillary

[still_one]

21. I assume if you are as concerned as you say you are, you are actively involved in call banking and

canvassing in your state. I am in California, and I have been call banking into Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado, and the response from Democrats is terrific for Hillary.

The early voting numbers also look good, and a factor not represented very well in the polls is the republican cross-over vote and Latino vote that is occurring

As for your statement regarding North Carolina, you don't know what you are talking about. A judge just ordered the illegal voting challenges to be thrown out, and those folks to be allowed to vote.

As with Florida, my call banking into North Carolina is phenomenal

As for you 538 evaluation, again you missed the ball. Silver deals with probabilities and a percent chance that something will occur. As has been posted here Silver himself has said there may be issues with his method, but even without that, he still give Hillary 60% chance to win, verses trumps 30% chance.

If you are really as concerned as you say, I recommend you go to your nearest Hillary headquarters where you are and get involved with getting out the vote

[SunSeeker]

38. Thank you!

[zenabby]

25. If I check out 538 site

and to to the link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/ - check out the polls. All the new polls (after Oct 27) have Clinton leading. The ones that have Trump leading are October 20-26.

[Dawson Leery]

26. Nathan Silver (R-New York)

[still_one]

31. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

28. Many of the polls are assuming that all Republicans are voting for Trump

I don't think that's going to happen. I'm a swing voter who am a cross between a moderate Democrat and moderate Republican. Trump REPULSES me. I only know two people who likes Trump. One is one of those angry middle aged white guys with drinking issues who is pissed at the world and just wants someone to blame and the other is a woman who deep down is a good person...she's just not very smart and very stubborn...and doesn't realize she's not very smart so doesn't really listen.

[asiliveandbreathe]

29. Let's not forget our Latino friends...stories have been written

that the Latino voters are very hard to capture in the polling data....AZ-NV-FL and then we have

Be You Y Vota..enjoy!!!! - I just love this AD!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017408605

[Sunsky]

33. I live in Broward county too

Lawn signs and bumper stickers mean nothing. I should know because I have 3 Hillary stickers on my car and only 1 vote. Anyway did you know that no party affiliation is currently having more votes that republicans in this county? FL is close, we need to do our part to GOTV. Link

[fleabiscuit]

37. I don't believe 538 includes early voting.

To get a more 'complete' picture IMHO use Predictwise. And listen to David Rothchild's daily analysis (up to election) on FaceBook.

[geek tragedy]

39. Then get off your ass and volunteer to GOTV for your neighbors.

Also, early voting means a lot more than stupid lawn signs.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

40. I think these polls are not factoring in those Republican Latinos that won't vote Trump

Florida has a massive amount of Puerto Ricans. They don't come here on visas either...and they can vote immediately upon coming to the US. Aside from this group are all the more conservative Latinos who are registered Republican. Seniors who are old enough to remember WWII are not going to be voting for Trump either.