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Aggregating the Presidential Aggregators - Nov. 4, 2016
[center]
Current consensus forecasts of the forecasters used by the New York Times' Upshot
for the 2016 Presidential Election as of November 4, 2016.
Aggregating the Presidential Aggregators - Nov. 4, 2016
On July 20th during the GOP Convention, I started to collect the New York Times’ Upshot’s overall and state-by-state forecasts for the 2016 presidential election. I figured that averaging what all of the forecasters were saying would help me clear out some of the noise and keep me from going bonkers from the individual polls coming in.
I wrote my first diary about my process on August 15, and have been posting a weekly Aggregating the Presidential Aggregators series ever since. Since Tuesday is Election Day, this is obviously my last regular Friday update. On Monday I’ll post a final summary combination of this and my weekly Aggregating the Senate Aggregators column, which had its last weekly post on Wednesday.
The NYT Upshot collects overall and state-by-state forecasts from five data modelers (the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, DailyKos, the Princeton Election Consortium, and The Huffington Post), three knowledgeable experts (the Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball), and the PredictWise.
It’s been a rough week, with it becoming increasingly clear that some FBI agents are trying to pursue investigations against Clinton based solely on fabricated conspiracy theories from biased right-wing sources and leaking reports against their superiors’ commands to Fox News and Rudy Giuliani. Tuesday cannot come fast enough.
On July 20th during the GOP Convention, I started to collect the New York Times’ Upshot’s overall and state-by-state forecasts for the 2016 presidential election. I figured that averaging what all of the forecasters were saying would help me clear out some of the noise and keep me from going bonkers from the individual polls coming in.
I wrote my first diary about my process on August 15, and have been posting a weekly Aggregating the Presidential Aggregators series ever since. Since Tuesday is Election Day, this is obviously my last regular Friday update. On Monday I’ll post a final summary combination of this and my weekly Aggregating the Senate Aggregators column, which had its last weekly post on Wednesday.
The NYT Upshot collects overall and state-by-state forecasts from five data modelers (the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, DailyKos, the Princeton Election Consortium, and The Huffington Post), three knowledgeable experts (the Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball), and the PredictWise.
It’s been a rough week, with it becoming increasingly clear that some FBI agents are trying to pursue investigations against Clinton based solely on fabricated conspiracy theories from biased right-wing sources and leaking reports against their superiors’ commands to Fox News and Rudy Giuliani. Tuesday cannot come fast enough.