2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver's been getting a lot of heat lately, but I just want to THANK him.
By skewing polls to make this race look like a nailbiter, he's keeping Democrats on edge. By painting this as a close election, there's no room for complacency and thus we should have the turnout we need to have a convincing Electoral College win, to take back the Senate, and to flip some seats in the House. So thanks Nate!
jjct2012
(4 posts)Why do we have to excoriate a guy who has done nothing but bring data to elections. We could go back to "there is wind at the back of x candidate" So we don't like what his model says. I get annoyed at the unskewers on the right. Let's not be unskewers on the left. Put them all in the model, adjust for what you think works, and come up with a %.
I think his model has bee a little too volatile. But, if Clinton has a 4 pt lead nationally, she isn't 99 percent chance to win. I think her chances are closer to 75% to 85% based on upshot and such.
Nate's done a great job however.
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)He is NOT skewing polls. He has a model. You don't like it? Fine, but this is silly, IMO.
doc03
(35,325 posts)his projections.