Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton

[RandySF]

Donald Trump has surged to a 7-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton among Iowa voters, firmly establishing the Republican presidential nominee as the favorite to win the state’s six electoral votes on Tuesday.

Trump is the top choice for 46 percent of Iowans who have already cast a ballot or plan to do so on Election Day, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, compared to 39 percent who say they’re for Clinton.

That makes the state Trump’s to lose, political analyst Amy Walter said.

“The bigger surprise on election night would be if he lost Iowa, not that he won it,” said Walter, national editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

To Walter, the numbers suggest Iowa Republican leaders' support of Trump is helping sway Republicans and independent voters, who are undeterred by questions about his character and temperament. Such factors are critical, she said, because Trump’s path to the White House likely depends on an Iowa victory.


http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90

[MyNameIsKhan]

1. OK...

[vdogg]

3. Oh well, it was a nice to have anyway.

538 will probably drop us to 40% now. 😂

[Dem2]

5. Yeah, I decided not to share it

No need.

[moman]

6. So much for "conservative values"

[vdogg]

7. Hillary leads substantially in early vote though

I don't see where they take this into account. I think Trump will win Iowa, just not by that margin.

[sunonmars]

8. This is the same pollster that had Trump win the caucus primary by 5 - he lost to Cruz.

[MyNameIsKhan]

11. Well this is a Gold standard poll but they had Trump +2 in FL... I really want to see how they

perform?

I think they will eat cow dung on Tuesday...

[RandySF]

12. She's a good pollster

I worn't argue with this poll.

[vdogg]

14. This is informative with how she'll do with the white vote though

If she pulls that number nationwide, she'll have no problem winning the election. May even pick off Ohio.

[pnwmom]

15. It's a mostly rural, 92% white state. It would have been shocking if Hillary won Iowa.

http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/19

[Garrett78]

18. Yet Obama won Iowa by nearly 10 points in '08 and nearly 6 points in '12.

Meanwhile, southeastern states with very high percentages of African Americans are typically won easily by the Republican nominee.

[pnwmom]

29. Obama is special. But this year Georgia and North Carolina are in play

because of their relatively high numbers of African American voters.

[Dawson Leery]

38. And affluent suburbs.

That is where Hillary is gaining white votes.
Just look at the Philly Suburbs and Collar Counties in Illinois.

[Garrett78]

41. Dukakis won IA, Clinton won IA both times, Gore won IA by a hair, Kerry lost IA by a hair.

If Trump wins Iowa by a whole percentage point or more, it'll be the first time in a long time that the Republican nominee has done so.

[pnwmom]

42. How much campaigning has Hillary been doing in Iowa, with its 6 electoral votes?

She's been concentrating her efforts on swing states with more electoral votes and more diverse populations.

[Garrett78]

43. No doubt.

I'm just saying it shouldn't be considered a shock if Clinton wins IA, given that the Democratic nominee usually wins IA.

[DLCWIdem]

16. What about the poll that had her 1 point ahead by the university.

[triron]

19. And way up in early vote

Seems very odd.

[geek tragedy]

17. Iowa headed for the walk of shame and permanent red state status

Poll is in line with other results though maybe not quite by this margin.

[Dawson Leery]

20. From the state

that prides itself on having adults fighting on the ground.

[triron]

22. somewhat of a downer after the Loras poll showing HRC +1

[smorkingapple]

23. That margin is surprising and disappointing. Thought Trump would squeak by at best

Hopefully that's not a leading indicator of anything in midwest

[Garrett78]

25. A couple of takeaways from the article:

1) About 6% are either undecided or unwilling to respond, while another 7% say they'll vote for Johnson (6%) or Stein (1%). Based on that, I wouldn't totally rule out a Clinton win. Johnson won't get 6%, and I think there's probably more of a hidden Clinton vote (wives of Trump supporters) than a hidden Trump vote. But I can't dispute that Trump is more likely to win Iowa.

2) Many young liberals (including Bernie or Bust millennials) seem inclined to sit this one out in Iowa. That's unfortunate.

[dalton99]

26. Sad to see a progressive state turn red - Fuck Terry Branstad.

[DCBob]

30. Iowa is Trumpistan.

Maybe hopeless.

[calguy]

31. I.O.W.A.

I. diots.
O.ut
W.wandering
A.round

[misterhighwasted]

33. LORAS has HRC up by 1. Who do you believe anymore!

Iowa Poll via @LorasPoll

Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 3
Stein 3
Undecided 7

http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/ …

[Drunken Irishman]

35. This is why you look at all the polls and average 'em out.

It's pointless to look at just one poll and make an assumption. But most polls had her either losing or, at best, tied with Trump there over the last couple months. It's always looked like a state she'd lose and it explains why she has had zero campaign stops there in the stretch run.

Sucks but oh well.

[asiliveandbreathe]

34. Yep - IOWA - they sure do love their farm subsidies...

Recipients of Subtotal, Farming Subsidies from farms in Iowa totaled $16,924,000,000 in from 1995-2014.

https://farm.ewg.org/top_recips.php?fips=19000&progcode=totalfarm&regionname=Iowa


Joni Ernst’s family received nearly half a million dollars in federal farm subsidies ..

. Iowa ranks second only to Texas in farm subsidies, ...

Where's my check....

[book_worm]

44. Iowa has been problematic since the start