Are Ohio Republicans beating Democrats in early voting?

[Imperialism Inc.]

Just sharing this to highlight one point specific to Ohio this year.

Are Ohio Republicans beating Democrats in early voting?
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/03/are-ohio-republicans-beating-dems-at-their-own-early-voting-game.html

...Of course a major caveat to all this is that we don’t know how many registered Republicans are "real” Republicans. Numerous Ohioans “crossed over” to vote in the state’s Republican primary in March — some to vote for Trump, but others to vote for Gov. John Kasich, who easily won.

How all these new “Republicans” are voting now is one of the major unanswered question of this year’s election.

I'm one of those "Republican" early voters. So is my wife and at least two of her friends. When the Ohio primary was held it looked like there was still a chance for the Never Trump movement within the Republican party to win. There was talk of a brokered convention, etc, and Kasich could win with just a little push. On the Democratic side it looked like Clinton might realistically have it in the bag, and we were torn between Bernie, who is closer to our views, and Clinton, who seemed the more practical choice for winning the general. So we crossed over and for the first time ever voted in the Republican primary.

No one really knows how much this happened here in Ohio but it happened some. I'd say it is likely a few percentage points of the Republican early votes are actually Democrats voting for Hillary Clinton like we did.

[book_worm]

1. I agree. Also the Columbus Dispatch Ohio Poll out this morning says that HRC

has a 10-point lead with early voters in Ohio.

[liberal N proud]

2. That is an interesting perspective and could explain why polls show Trump leading here

We can hope for a surprise win in Ohio on Tuesday.

[LisaL]

3. That won't explain why polls show Trump leading.

It doesn't matter if person voted in republican primary or not. As they are polled, they are asked if they voted/plan to vote for Trump or Clinton.

[apnu]

10. Ohio is mostly white and working class

Whom the Republicans have screwed over but also successfully convinced the white working class all of that is Democrats fault. Trump will will win white men nationally. Its up to women and non-whites to save America from the pussy grabber.

[LisaL]

5. Yes. OH has an open primary. So some democrats who are anti-Trump crossed over to vote for Kasich

and might be now counted as republicans in ballot requests, etc.
Of course as they were really anti-Trump to begin with they are not likely to vote for Trump.

[uawchild]

6. Interesting point, that early voting Republicans might not be voting for Trump...

Here's an article that echoes your view of what might be going on.


"It's unclear to what extent this might simply show a larger portion of Republican voters are shifting toward early voting, rather than just waiting until Election Day to vote for Trump. Political scientists say early voting can indicate increased voter enthusiasm, but doesn't necessarily correlate with Election Day results. It's also not a given that voters in Republican counties are casting votes for Trump — this year's unusual and divisive election could see both Clinton and Trump's support eroding in traditional areas of strength."
http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/early_vote_numbers_in_ohio_sug.html

The articles title is "Early vote numbers in Ohio suggest opening for Donald Trump", and even though it makes the point that you made, that not all "republican" voters are casting ballots for Trump, I'll bet someone will now accuse me of pimping for tRump because of that title.

That's why I posted that the content first. lol

[Coyotl]

7. About 25% of registered Republican women are voting for Hillary.

[IamTheNoodle]

12. That would be great

Is this a real number though?

[BobbyDrake]

15. Never forget Betteridge's law of headlines...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines

Betteridge's law of headlines is one name for an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."