CBS Poll: HRC won early voters by 30 in Ohio and by 10 in FL

[book_worm]

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 2h2 hours ago
Among Early Voters,

#Florida:
Clinton 51% (+10)
Trump 41%

#Ohio:
Clinton 63% (+30)
Trump 33%

CBS/YouGov 11/2-4
http://y-g.co/2fsGZE4

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers

[beachbum bob]

1. Exit polling not extremely reliable but the trend for Hillary

Is expected.... Tuesday vote matters...

[Marthe48]

19. Before Bush

I heard that exit polls were very reliable. They decided they were 'unreliable' in 2004 and dropped them.

[central scrutinizer]

43. Exit polls should be pretty good

It's not registered voters or likely voters but people who actually voted. But methodology is still important. You would have to make sure to sample all neighborhoods, all times of day, rural, suburban, urban and weight accordingly. Bias could still creep in if a sizable percentage refused to answer or lied.

[Blue Idaho]

5. Lie or no lie +10 in Florida and +30 in Ohio is HUGE.

Of course we still need to get out the vote on Tuesday but this could be the beginning of the end for Trump.

[Thrill]

8. What would be the point of lying?

Especially for a Trump supporter. If his whole point is everything is rigged. He needs the exit polls to support it

[Blue Idaho]

13. You got me...

There are some that lie to exit interviewers just because they want to mess up the polls, others lie because they think the no one should know how they voted. But by now I would think that is all calculated into the formula to gather the data.

I do think you have to ask yourself if it's possible the 10 - 30% of all those polled would lie. If it's 1 - 3% it's really not a significant percentage IMO.

[LisaL]

11. Obama had a huge early vote lead in OH.

Romney won on election day. It averaged out to Obama winning by a small margin. So we don't know what will happen on election day.

[Blue Idaho]

15. Very True!

But I'd rather be going into Election Day with a lead than going in behind...

[LisaL]

17. It's normal for OH.

For whatever reason, democrats in OH like to vote early and republicans like to vote on election day. Obama also had a huge lead in early vote but Romney won the election day Now it all depends on how many democrats we can get out to vote on election day.

[Divine Discontent]

22. Because we're Methodists in Ohio, and that's just how it's been done forever, and always should be!

I do believe that GOPers like to be seen and talk and act all patriotic and go "I vote on ELECTION DAY!" because it's how it's supposed to be, because that's when votes are legal and matter!

There's so many of them, but thankfully, the old way is passing on, and let's just hope that the good progressive older people though, live for decades!

[Foggyhill]

26. The difference though is that more and more people vote early.

Eventually, like in Nevada, its impossible to catch up on election day.

[Fahrenthold451]

6. Back in the day early vote didn't create trends and you couldn't depend much on the data

Now, instead of Union members or the elderly, early/absentee voters are composed of more disparate groups. I will totally, totally, take those numbers. Imagine if the scenario were reversed and Trump was leading. You wouldn't be super comforted...

[Qutzupalotl]

10. Very discouraging news for Trump voters.

It's over. He's already lost. No point in them even showing up.

[LisaL]

12. On November 28th!

[Baitball Blogger]

9. Ten points may be alright in Florida because Red counties are recording

record breaking early voting turnouts.

Unless the Repubs plan to vote twice. I would check to see if there is double dipping going on for snowbirds that have property in Ohio and Florida.

[vdogg]

51. Especially since 70% of the vote is already in.

I got Hillary there by 2 points.

[Baitball Blogger]

52. +1

[vi5]

18. Believe it or not, this makes me nervous....

I remember in 2004 how happy we were about all the early voting and all the long lines of people wanting to vote and that made many of us confident that we were going to make Bush a 1 term president.

Needless to say...

[BigDemVoter]

24. Just what I was telling myself.

I will ALWAYS remember that sick feeling when GWB was declared the winner It had been so important to beat that mother fucker, especially after he and his campaign stole the election in 2000.

[Skittles]

30. I remember the sick feeling I had when Dubya ran for governor

he was such a dipshit, I couldn't figure out why he would want to be governor, and then it hit me like a freight train...."OMG, they are going to make him president"

[writes3000]

28. Would you rather have early vote dead even? Or perhaps you'd prefer to be 30 pts down?

The truth is you'd be nervous no matter what. And that's ok.

[vi5]

40. You are 100% correct....

It's more just a feeling that is evocative of when I heard about this back then, which then leads me to remember how I felt days later which was sick to my stomach. There's no situation I'd rather be in than this one with regard to early voting. But because of history, rather than making me happy it makes me sick to remember and fear.

[Hawaii Hiker]

31. 2004 was really the electorate of yesteryear

Bush won CO, NV, NC, VA twice...He won NH, NM, IA once....

The electorate has changed so much since then; CO, NV, & VA are almost light blue states..NC is purple..NM is dark blue...Can't figure out IA & NH but then certainly have been blue recently...

[lostnfound]

50. I remember all those 2000 Gore voters who voted for 2004 Bush

It was an amazing phenomenon. County by county, registrations for Dems were way up in Florida, but even though Bush and Gore had split Florida 50/50, Bush beat Kerry in 2004 by 5%.

The exit polls were so wrong that year they had to explain it by inventing the Reluctant Bish Responders.

It was really cool to graph that by county, too, and match it up with the types of central tabulators. It was a neat little linear shift in the big counties, depending on the tabulator software.

But if you wanted to see that graph, you'd have to stay up all night to copy the results from the FL SOS website. You'd have to be slightly crazy to do that.

[cmeneer]

32. Ohio EV

In line now in Summit County Ohio. Dem turnout HUGE. Long lines...very!! Most have sample Dem ballots in hand!

[vadermike]

33. Dispatch

Poll has HRC up in OH Good sign I think really good polling company

[ffr]

38. Look into those numbers and you'll find it says A LOT of Donald votes still remain

So those EV's, while encouraging must be backed up by Democrats forging the numbers into a win. Otherwise they'll swing to Donald's favor.

GOTV no matter what. Forget the headlines. VOTE.

[LisaL]

42. Well, obviously.

If Hillary is winning early vote by 30 points, then clearly lots of remaining voters are Trump's voters. Since nothing suggest Hillary will win OH by 30 points (or anywhere close to that).

[ffr]

44. Not the point at all. It's clearly going to be close, which is why I stress GOTV

and ignoring rosy poll cherry picking. We all like that, but we need all the facts. The point being, I'd hate to lose OH or FL because democrats place too much emphasis on one stat and nothing on another that's equally eye opening:

In both states, Clinton holds the lead among early voters while Trump leads with the rest. Ohio early voters break 63% to 33% for Clinton over Trump. However, this is among only 19% of the Ohio voters. Among the vast majority who have yet to vote, Trump leads by eight points, 49% to 41%.

For those who want to make a difference. Call your local democratic field office and volunteer, supply food, drive canvassers. Do whatever it takes. Time is running out and there is no do-over if we get this wrong.

[JudyM]

45. Early voting is up 50% (from 2012) here in mostly blue Fairfax County, VA.

It's been promoted more, but still, that's a big jump. Fairfax is one of the main counties to watch in northern VA... High turnout here is great for Dems, we brought the election home for Obama in '08, what a moment that was for all of us at the party's watch party!

[adigal]

49. If Trump's Deplorables are so pumped to vote, why don't they early vote too??

Is there a reason more Dems are voting early? I don't get it?