Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum***(CVOTER/UPI (moonies)) national poll goes from Hillary +1.25% lead to Hillary +3.34% lead***
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3214801-US5th-Nov-Report.html
Yet her odds drop?
Note that Nate's adjusted lead went from +3 to +5, the sample size was larger and her average lead is just under 3%, thus this poll HAD to increase her odds, no? The WAPO poll did earlier. It's not logical that this dropped her odds. Can a statistician here please explain this to me?
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
6 replies, 918 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (2)
ReplyReply to this post
6 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
***(CVOTER/UPI (moonies)) national poll goes from Hillary +1.25% lead to Hillary +3.34% lead*** (Original Post)
Dem2
Nov 2016
OP
C+ Poll probably replaced an older higher rated one. His model thinks momentum matters too much
smorkingapple
Nov 2016
#1
smorkingapple
(827 posts)1. C+ Poll probably replaced an older higher rated one. His model thinks momentum matters too much
Stallion
(6,473 posts)2. The Data in Post Says Otherwise
Clinton posted better than last 4 polling periods
Dem2
(8,166 posts)4. His model has a massive inertia problem!
You call it momentum, I call it inertia, we are in agreement here, just using different words to mean basically the same thing. The swings are too wild compared to the actual polling averages seen at, say, Huffpo that doesn't use garbage polls.
The new poll should replace the poll from the same pollster, which you see the old poll's weight go to almost zero when replaced with a newer from the same pollster, thus is really should have given her a double boost - it's not logical!!!
Huffpo (4-way):
Dem2
(8,166 posts)6. A "D" rated poll of Michigan just upped her overall odds of winning the election by 0.4%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/
It was also a +2 swing toward Hillary from the same pollster's previous release. I know state polls carry more weight, but his model does account for "a rising tide lifts all ships" model of national polls, that +2 improvement day-to-day in cvoter should have raised her odds.
It was also a +2 swing toward Hillary from the same pollster's previous release. I know state polls carry more weight, but his model does account for "a rising tide lifts all ships" model of national polls, that +2 improvement day-to-day in cvoter should have raised her odds.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)3. Im sure 538 will drop Clinton by 5 more percentage points
Because it is more evidence of "uncertainty" in the polls or some bullshit