So with the FBI news, Silver is saying Hillary is one state away from losing the

[still_one]

Last edited Sun Nov 6, 2016, 06:22 PM - Edit history (2)

electoral college

F**k you FBI, F**k you republicans, F**k you media, and a big F**k you to Comey


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/

Oh, and F**k you Chaffetz

[JHan]

1. Don't get hyped up over Silver.

Not worth it. Other people disagree with him.

[still_one]

17. I know, I am just pissed at him cause he changed his rules so no matter how the election turns

out he will say, see, I got it right

it is just worthless

[vdogg]

2. He said that before the Comey letter. All the polls have become instantly invalid now

It's simply impossible to capture the effect of this, but it's definitely a net positive. This should improve her standing 1 or 2 points, and help with the senate.

[DCBob]

3. +1

[Garrett78]

9. I suppose it might sway some who were either not going to vote or were going to vote 3rd party.

And I guess there are (as inexplicable as it seems to me) some "undecideds" who will now vote for Clinton as a result of this news. Those who are undecided between Trump and Clinton will hopefully be willing to donate their brains to science, as we could probably learn a lot from them.

[still_one]

19. He is fixing things so no matter how the election comes out he will say he was right

Far as I am concerned he is being not only intellectually dishonest, but worthless

[AgadorSparticus]

4. Nate silver has forgotten that he is suppose to predict and not just react.

I am going to predict that Hillary's numbers will improve now after Comey's statement. See? It is pretty easy after the fact....

This is why I like Sam Wang: follow the data, not the drama.

[still_one]

20. I think Hillary will do just fine. My call banking into the swing states was very positive, and

I have been doing it for about five days.

[AgadorSparticus]

31. Thanks for doing the call bank. I think she will win in a landslide.

From the get go, I don't think the polls calculated in the poc vote like it should have.

[Buns_of_Fire]

40. And Sam Wang also promised he'd eat a bug if Rump gets over 240 EV!

Granted, he didn't say if he was talking about a fruit fly or a goliath beetle, so he's hedging just a little. But, to my knowledge, Nate Silver doesn't promise to eat anything if he's wrong.

I'll go with the guy with the courage of his convictions and the stronger control of his gag reflex.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. Silver aggregates polls, and there are no polls yet

reflecting the latest news from Comey. Whatever he's got on his web site doesn't reflect this. Ignore 538 and look at Princeton instead.

[still_one]

23. Don't misunderstand me, Hillary is going to win this. The call banking I have been doing into

swing states has been very positive. A lot of early voters, and they are pumped up for Hillary

What I see Nate doing is changing his models in the middle of the game so no matter how the election turns out he can say, see I was right on.

He is hedging his bets, essentially saying it is a toss up. no risk there in his predictions

[workinclasszero]

6. +1

What or who got to Nate?

Or did he just lose his mind?

[AgadorSparticus]

10. He went on a tweeting tirade the other day. Unreal...

I'm thinking Sam Wang got to him. But it wasn't just Sam Wang. All the others came up with fairly close results. The outlier was Silvers and he seems to be taking it out on everyone els for his problems.

[workinclasszero]

12. Right

That was really weird too.

[DemKittyNC]

7. I find the Election Betting Odds

way more accurate when taking into account polls and the turn out of hispanics and women for Hillary not to mention the AA's turning out in droves. I mean really, what demographic does tRump have on his side? He has alienated everyone other than white uneducated men. Lucky for us and the world they are the few.

Link to Election Betting Odds Site:

[link:https://www.electionbettingodds.com/|

[uponit7771]

11. +1. All the other polls don't have the money in the game analysis like the betting odds

[radius777]

16. Yes, the prediction markets are excellent,

especially that site you linked since it uses Betfair, the only real (large/fluid market, 123million currently bet) prediction market since Intrade was shut down.

In essence, they are like the stock market that can tell us in real time what is going on.

Hillary is surging (+4.6%) in the past hour based on Comey's new letter.

[tammywammy]

8. Nate Silver is based off polls

No polls have come out to include the FBI backtrack.

[oberliner]

13. No reason to curse at Nate Silver

He is just compiling and analyzing data.

[still_one]

29. Not entirely, he kind of changed his own rules. Regardless, you have a point, and I will edit

the expletive regarding him out of the OP


Thanks

[CajunBlazer]

35. Yea, but Silver's 538 website data says Hillary is in very good shape

[LenaBaby61]

15. Nate Silver ...

[Buckeye_Democrat]

18. Silver aggregates too many CRAP polls.

The simple fact that he's included Remington polls, founded by a very DIRTY Republican operative named Jeff Roe, makes me discount his numbers to a large extent.

Working on the assumption that various biased polls will balance out is a mistake.

[joeybee12]

24. he said this before the FBI news..nt

[ham_actor]

25. Upshot

In effect the New York Times Upshot agrees with 538 in that Clinton has a sure 268 electoral votes and needs one more state, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina to secure the majority. What they disagree on is the probability of Clinton winning those states. 538 gives Florida and North Carolina to Trump for instance while the Upshot favors Clinton. Of course this could change later today, tomorrow or even Tuesday. Stay tuned.

[Dem2]

27. Yahoo is as wingnut as Breitbart

Stay away from their extremely biased news feed.

[still_one]

28. You have a point. What Yahoo and Google both do is they are not discrimating in where they get

there news stories from, and they definitely post a lot of R/W bullshit

[Dem2]

30. I've seen up to 80% right-wing crap on Yahoo feed

It's vile.

[still_one]

32. All good points. I will edit the link into his 538 comments. Thanks

[Dem2]

34. He just put out a new analysis of Comey's probe

You'll see when you go there.

[still_one]

36. thanks

[still_one]

39. and he is essentially saying that it happened too late to be reflected in the polls, so there is no

way to know

[CajunBlazer]

33. BULLSHIT!!!! I illustated using Silver's own data Hillary is extremely likely to win!

Here is the link to my blog article:


The State of the Race – 11/6/16

[still_one]

44. Hey Cajun, I agree with you

[forjusticethunders]

37. Shillver is a hack.

Sold out to the horserace money machine, just like the rest of the MSSM.

[still_one]

38. As some have pointed out to me he is just looking at numbers. whether those are good or bad numbers

that can be argued since he includes polls that are more reliable than others

One thing though, the FBI fiasco did have an impact, and they need to be taken to task

[Buns_of_Fire]

42. I think he also factors in that reliability.

Which would be so easy to do, I'd be surprised if he DOESN'T do it.

[still_one]

43. except the criticism made toward him is that reliability has subjectivity which not everyone agrees

with


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

[Buns_of_Fire]

45. Yes, that "trend line adjustment" of his is making him sound

more like a pundit and less like a number cruncher.

Love him or hate him, the only poll that matters is day after tomorrow, and then all of them will either trumpet their success -- or try to explain why their model only failed because there was an unexpectedly high pollen count in the mid-Atlantic states.