2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSo with the FBI news, Silver is saying Hillary is one state away from losing the
Last edited Sun Nov 6, 2016, 06:22 PM - Edit history (2)
electoral college
F**k you FBI, F**k you republicans, F**k you media, and a big F**k you to Comey
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/
Oh, and F**k you Chaffetz
JHan
(10,173 posts)Not worth it. Other people disagree with him.
still_one
(92,060 posts)out he will say, see, I got it right
it is just worthless
vdogg
(1,384 posts)It's simply impossible to capture the effect of this, but it's definitely a net positive. This should improve her standing 1 or 2 points, and help with the senate.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And I guess there are (as inexplicable as it seems to me) some "undecideds" who will now vote for Clinton as a result of this news. Those who are undecided between Trump and Clinton will hopefully be willing to donate their brains to science, as we could probably learn a lot from them.
still_one
(92,060 posts)Far as I am concerned he is being not only intellectually dishonest, but worthless
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)I am going to predict that Hillary's numbers will improve now after Comey's statement. See? It is pretty easy after the fact....
This is why I like Sam Wang: follow the data, not the drama.
still_one
(92,060 posts)I have been doing it for about five days.
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)From the get go, I don't think the polls calculated in the poc vote like it should have.
Buns_of_Fire
(17,148 posts)Granted, he didn't say if he was talking about a fruit fly or a goliath beetle, so he's hedging just a little. But, to my knowledge, Nate Silver doesn't promise to eat anything if he's wrong.
I'll go with the guy with the courage of his convictions and the stronger control of his gag reflex.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,576 posts)reflecting the latest news from Comey. Whatever he's got on his web site doesn't reflect this. Ignore 538 and look at Princeton instead.
still_one
(92,060 posts)swing states has been very positive. A lot of early voters, and they are pumped up for Hillary
What I see Nate doing is changing his models in the middle of the game so no matter how the election turns out he can say, see I was right on.
He is hedging his bets, essentially saying it is a toss up. no risk there in his predictions
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)What or who got to Nate?
Or did he just lose his mind?
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)I'm thinking Sam Wang got to him. But it wasn't just Sam Wang. All the others came up with fairly close results. The outlier was Silvers and he seems to be taking it out on everyone els for his problems.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)That was really weird too.
DemKittyNC
(743 posts)way more accurate when taking into account polls and the turn out of hispanics and women for Hillary not to mention the AA's turning out in droves. I mean really, what demographic does tRump have on his side? He has alienated everyone other than white uneducated men. Lucky for us and the world they are the few.
Link to Election Betting Odds Site:
[link:https://www.electionbettingodds.com/|
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)Response to DemKittyNC (Reply #7)
RonniePudding This message was self-deleted by its author.
radius777
(3,635 posts)especially that site you linked since it uses Betfair, the only real (large/fluid market, 123million currently bet) prediction market since Intrade was shut down.
In essence, they are like the stock market that can tell us in real time what is going on.
Hillary is surging (+4.6%) in the past hour based on Comey's new letter.
tammywammy
(26,582 posts)No polls have come out to include the FBI backtrack.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He is just compiling and analyzing data.
still_one
(92,060 posts)the expletive regarding him out of the OP
Thanks
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)LenaBaby61
(6,972 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,852 posts)The simple fact that he's included Remington polls, founded by a very DIRTY Republican operative named Jeff Roe, makes me discount his numbers to a large extent.
Working on the assumption that various biased polls will balance out is a mistake.
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)ham_actor
(38 posts)In effect the New York Times Upshot agrees with 538 in that Clinton has a sure 268 electoral votes and needs one more state, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina to secure the majority. What they disagree on is the probability of Clinton winning those states. 538 gives Florida and North Carolina to Trump for instance while the Upshot favors Clinton. Of course this could change later today, tomorrow or even Tuesday. Stay tuned.
Dem2
(8,166 posts)Stay away from their extremely biased news feed.
still_one
(92,060 posts)there news stories from, and they definitely post a lot of R/W bullshit
Dem2
(8,166 posts)It's vile.
still_one
(92,060 posts)Dem2
(8,166 posts)You'll see when you go there.
still_one
(92,060 posts)way to know
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Here is the link to my blog article:
The State of the Race 11/6/16
still_one
(92,060 posts)forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)Sold out to the horserace money machine, just like the rest of the MSSM.
still_one
(92,060 posts)that can be argued since he includes polls that are more reliable than others
One thing though, the FBI fiasco did have an impact, and they need to be taken to task
Buns_of_Fire
(17,148 posts)Which would be so easy to do, I'd be surprised if he DOESN'T do it.
still_one
(92,060 posts)Buns_of_Fire
(17,148 posts)more like a pundit and less like a number cruncher.
Love him or hate him, the only poll that matters is day after tomorrow, and then all of them will either trumpet their success -- or try to explain why their model only failed because there was an unexpectedly high pollen count in the mid-Atlantic states.