2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538 just predicted Democrats will take back the Senate!
posted 3 hours ago, 54.1% chance Dems will regain Senate control:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
That means they can push through judicial appointments for Clinton or block bad appointments even if Trump wins.
The site is also predicting Clinton wins the presidency.
Egnever
(21,506 posts)My wife just said they had us losing the senate a couple of hours ago...
That would be a huge swing.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)still_one
(91,965 posts)AllyCat
(16,037 posts)To see the numbers drop after a 70% chance of winning it. I knew there was more to the story than polls after Comey-spew. So I just stopped looking. Thanks for putting this up there but I liked 70% better.
bagelsforbreakfast
(1,427 posts)regnaD kciN
(26,035 posts)Keep in mind that, as Nate has explained it, 54.1% merely means that, given these circumstances, Democrats would win slightly more than half such elections. Just as, if he were to have HRC up 66.6% to 33.3%, it means that Trump would win roughly one presidential election every twelve years going into it with the current results two days beforehand.
Silver's odds generally mean less than we might imagine them doing.
ffr
(22,649 posts)Sorry Drumpfy, we're standing with California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii, out West this election. You're not getting through. No really. You're not! We have our eye on someone far more qualified. And in about 24 hours we speak.