The 538 Election Forecast is a complete joke

[Norbert]

Drops 3 percentage points overnight, now shows Hillary at 63.6% this morning.

[ham_actor]

2. Nevada?

And it shifted Nevada from light blue to light red. Was there an overnight poll no one knows about?

[Buzz Clik]

3. More unskewing of the data.

In other words, he has a gut feeling about the election, and the model isn't showing it. So, he tweaks.

538 has fallen off the list of reliable services. I absolutely different opinions, and I don't mind hearing opinions contrary to mine. But to simply nudge the numbers in a so-called scientific analysis? Bullshit.

[Demsrule86]

9. I read an article on Huff that he adjusts the data

to where he thinks it is...and then runs the data using his model...he seems to think it takes into account 'uncertainty'...that is punditry as the article pointed out ...not math. I wonder if he will make predictions state by state...final numbers.

[Buzz Clik]

12. Yep. That is exactly what he does.

What was cool about Nate was when he was telling the world he did it all with models and statistics. Now that we find he's just another person using stats to help him guess, it's not as cool.

[obamanut2012]

4. This morning, it was almost 67% HRC, NV was light blue

And FL and NC were just about a tossup.

Too garbage polls later, and....

[7worldtrade]

8. I don't get it either, BUT

He is upfront about his model, and how he weights polls, etc. By today it will all pretty much be based on public polls. On the other hand, I think his articles are designed to freak people out and get hits to his site. Probably has something to do with the fact that his site was bought by ESPN AFTER 2012. Need to generate revenues.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

[book_worm]

13. Nate Silver is just as irrelevant as any other pundit.

[Pisces]

15. Anyone here attacking Nate Silver because they don't like the data is just

As bad as Republicans last time around doubting the numbers. Nate doesn't make the polling up.
He just extrapolates from the information. She still has a 65% chance of winning. That seems right
To me. he still has a shot. We don't know much damage the Comey letter has done. The polls are much to close for my liking. He doesn't have her losing.