Battle for Senate Control Is a Toss Up

[applegrove]

Battle for Senate Control Is a Toss Up

https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/07/battle-senate-control-toss/

"SNIP............


Harry Enten: “The fight for control of the United States Senate is really close. It’s basically a coin-flip. Democrats have a 53 percent chance of winning a Senate majority according to FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model, or a 52 percent chance according to our polls-only forecast. There is about a 16 percent chance, in fact, that we’ll end up with a 50-50 Senate and the presidential race will decide control. (The vice-president breaks ties in the Senate.)”


...............SNIP"

[beachbumbob]

1. ...democrats will have 52-48 majority....

[pat_k]

3. 538 has. . .

. . . gone from Dems chances of control at 64.4% Nov 3 (and bouncing around 70% before that) to chances of control 49.2%.

That sort of last minute swing seems out of line.

I could be wrong, but I think the changes are adjustments to expected turnout based on early voting figures, with the assumption being that higher Repub turnout necessarily means more Trump. But, if more Repubs are crossing over, that assumption wouldn't hold.

I hope Nate's predictions Nov 3 turn out to be the accurate ones. But, looking at another site, Cook Political Report, it does look like it might be a nail biter.


Here's current from Cook (Contests rated Solid, Likely, Lean, Toss Up).
http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

Assuming Cook Lean D, and Cook Lean R go the way they lean, we have

Cook Lean D
------
IL (D Gain)

Cook Lean R
------
AZ (R Hold)
FL (R Hold)
OH (R Hold)


So, with IL as D Gain, we need 3 more D Gains for 50/50 (with Kaine making it 51 for Dem control)

Cook Toss Up, with percentages from 538
--------------------------------------------------
Ayotte (NH) Hassan 51% v. Ayotte (Possible D Gain)

Toomey (PA) McGinty 61% v. Toomey (D Gain)

Johnson (WI) Feingold 81% v. Johnson (D-Gain)

Coats (IN) Bayh 33% v. Young (R Hold)

Blunt (MO) Kander 42% v. Blunt (R Hold)

Burr (NC) Ross 26% v. Burr (R Hold)

Reid (NV) Cortez Masto 59% v. Heck (D Hold)



So, it if things go as predictions indicate, it comes down to NH.