2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders, also a 25 year Washington veteran, woulda lost to Trump
not only because Trump stilll would've had that talking point, as Bernie's been in Washington since 1991, but Bernie could not even keep the BLM protesters from stealing his mic. How would he have stood up to Trump? Trump would've also been able to play even more on his business "success;" it woulda been like "If a socialist were in charge when my dad gave me that 'small' loan, I'd have been taxed 80% and never made so many big beautiful buildings and created jobs..."
Remember, socialism is still unpopular in America, particularly among the older set. McGovern, like Sanders, was loved by the younger crowd. Just hated by suburban and rural. At least Hillary did well in the suburbs. I also doubt that Bernie, a meek and non-aggressive guy, woulda trumped Donald in rural America, given their love of John Wayne types. Plus, black and Hispanic turnout woulda been much lower as well.
Hillary was the best candidate we could've fielded. I think the Hillary of 2008 woulda been better, but she was probably scared of how much of the party base has moved left enough to screw her over worse had she been the Hillary of '08.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)I wish it appeared he spoke with anyone with experience fighting for our rights, but it was obvious he did not.
He was for killing babies up till the day of birth. Fucking brilliant.
Buddha2B
(116 posts)Is not going to elect a Jewish Socialist. I'm a non-American and I saw this coming over a year ago. Bernie Sanders would have made the USA paradise on earth, but really deep down, a lot of US citizens don't want that. They've still got their right wing nationalist fiction they are clinging to.
Fiction won the election. Bernie is too real.
Also the radical parts of the left like SJW and BLM have been controlling the scene for a while. Mainly because Obama was too good at his job, and the mainstream left (that wins elections) didn't have an enemy to galvanize against.
It's sadly just the old Right Left cycle occurring again.
C Moon
(12,212 posts)I think Bernie would have won.
Hell, I think Hillary DID win. I believe the election was stolenlike they've been doing (trying to do) with swing states since 2000.
DesertFlower
(11,649 posts)racists. i understand that some people are angry about jobs, etc, but you don't vote for a racist.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)he was elected by racists as if they're the only ones who voted for him in states worth 270 electoral votes. There are a lot of people who voted Obama in 2008 and/or 2012 who voted for Trump.
Also, many people in rural areas may not hate non-whites, but may have very well been the wrong voters to talk about (this group's)-privilege in part because they don't see much cross racial interaction aside from one or two non-whites. Democratic Party affiliated pundits and Obama's surrogates, and sadly both Hillary and Sanders, crossed this line. Of course, thats because the base has moved very far to the left. They're also fed unrealistic expectations of societal progress by these uber-progressive professors.
Also, rural America, like rural parts of amost societies, are much more culturally conservative than cities/suburbs, and thus were not very thrilled about Obama's transgender rights acts, as well as cultural outlets picking sides on that. I think marriage equality was a massive accomplishment and the right thing to do; that being said, for electoral optics necessary to prevent a guy like Trump from winning, Obama probably should've not gotten Lynch into that transgender bathroom order this year. He shoulda waited till after the election for that.
DesertFlower
(11,649 posts)why people voted for trump. 5 years ago he questioned obama's birth certificate. that made him a racist. then he called mexicans rapists, etc., muslims terrorists, etc. how can anyone who has any moral decency vote for a man like him?
a black man on CNN summed it up -- White Resentment.
https://www.thenation.com/article/donald-trump-won-on-white-male-resentment-but-dont-confuse-that-with-the-working-class/
etherealtruth
(22,165 posts)If "you" support a candidate that engages in racist/ bigoted/ misogynistic/ hate filled speech ... has engaged in racist/ bigoted/ misogynistic/ hate filled deeds there is no doubt in my mind that "you" are a a racist/ bigot/ misogynist.
This was not something rumored ... tRump used racism/ bigotry/ misogyny as rallying cries.
I would agree that not every tRump voter is going to go out and commit a hate crime .... many would not hurl racial/ sexistic/ xenophobic perjoritives .... that doesn't mean they are not racists/ bigots .... "soft racism" (the absence of violent words or violent actions) is still racism.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)The national survey of more than 1,600 registered voters, conducted by Gravis Marketing two days before the general election, found that Sanders would have received 56 percent of the vote while Trump would have won 44 percent. (Wilms edits to add, "cough" The poll was commissioned and financed by outgoing Florida Congressman Alan Grayson, a Democrat who endorsed Sanders in the presidential primary.
The last election result that decisive was Ronald Reagans victory over Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984.
snip
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/2016-election-poll-bernie-sanders-trump_us_58260f7ee4b0c4b63b0c6928
duffyduff
(3,251 posts)Bucky
(53,986 posts)Buy a mirror, my friend. Then quit fighting yesterday's battle. We need all good Democrats ready to line up and resist Trump's mania. We're here to organize, not pick fights with each other. Join in or get out of the way.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)who would aid and abet racist BDS supporters or tax people 60%+.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)before the attack machine came, before real scrutiny. Remember a year and a half ago?
pnwmom
(108,973 posts)According to Newsweek investigative reporter Kurt Eichenwald, he personally saw the 2-foot thick pile of opposition research that the RNC had collected on Bernie.
If he had been the nominee, you can be certain they would have used it -- and it would have impacted those imaginary poll numbers.
reflection
(6,286 posts)Wilms
(26,795 posts)And then follow the links to part 2 and 3. Grantcart did a hell of a job exposing this guy.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)538 did give them a B- grade, and showed a right leaning bias.
reflection
(6,286 posts)I'm not so sure that in 2016, Gravis wasn't just throwing out middle-of-the-road numbers based on other polls, whereas in 2012 he was all over the map with these weird polls that showed Romney with huge leads. I don't know how they make the sausage at "Gravis Marketing" but that research grantcart did was par excellence, and the findings were pretty damning. Nothing against Nate Silver for giving them a rating, he came out smelling like a rose this last time around, and Nate is good at what he does, but GM is just one data point of many for him.
edit: Part 2 is even a better read than part 1. It's at the bottom of the thread.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)I'm really not doubting it. My anecdotes include a self-described redneck I know who was screaming "socialism" at the mention of Sanders name during the spring. He has since told me he voted for Trump, but would have voted for Sanders given the choice.
closeupready
(29,503 posts)mcar
(42,298 posts)GOP had gobs of oppo research on BS that they would have unleashed.
http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044?rel=most_read2
Wilms
(26,795 posts)Any other sources opining? I went back to check the author. Sure enough, it's Kurt.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)There are more, not touched by HRC operatives. Sanders has the same speech over and over, he did not have foreign experience, it showed with his answers in the debates, again this was Sanders operative not HRC operatives. He did not get enough votes to beat HRC in the primaries, Sanders did not deliver his supporters to vote for Hillary. He would not have won in the GE.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)Let's just run Hillary in 2020. Maybe she won't be facing such a tough competitor.
greatauntoftriplets
(175,731 posts)Wish that I could recommend this post.
duffyduff
(3,251 posts)That is because Michael Bloomberg would have joined in the race and would have been elected president.
Sanders would have finished a distant third.
Some people need a reality check. Sanders was unelectable and not a viable candidate for the presidency.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)Has 40% of the vote locked up because we are so poloralized he would have locked up the rust belt states because of his history on trade. Free trade is an unelectable position, Hillary Clinton had high unfavorable ratings, trust, etc.
I would love to bet on it but it's easy to make predictions fpr things you never know is going to happen but lets keep making the same mistakes and blame it on liberal policies.
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)Martin O'Malley is a Democrat.
Sanders is an "opportunist." Just like Trump - only unsuccessful.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)JonLP24
(29,322 posts)He isn't an opportunist, he's been correct on policy.
You can say Martin O'Malley locking up 100,000 people so he can look "tough on crime" for his race for governor.
Hillary Clinton has been an opportunist her whole damn career.
Auntie Bush
(17,528 posts)BlueProgressive
(229 posts)"Sanders was unelectable and not a viable candidate for the presidency."
I guess so-- except in the case of Hillary, we now have the proof. Some people needed a reality check earlier this year, but they didn't get one.
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)This was a really unpredictable election. Most of us never would have predicted Trump could be elected dogcatcher let alone president. Trump broke every rule of politics in the book. So why is it so hard to believe Bernie could have beaten Trump? And I say that as a Clinton fan.
calguy
(5,304 posts)It's the Achilles heel for Dems every time.
The issue is: THEY DIDN'T SHOW UP AT THE POLLS.
A case could be made this election was lost 6 years ago when so many Dems failed to vote the midterm elections. It's when we lost the House and so many state legislatures, which allowed for the gerrymandering of districts.
Bottom line is Dems can't be counted on election after election.
Until Dems realize EVERY election matters big time, it's going to be hard to gain a permanent upper hand.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)Not every candidate can be the first (fill in the blank) President.
Mosby
(16,297 posts)Weak candidate, strong candidate, whatever, liberals get fucked by their own constituency.
It's also why dems are always rushing to the middle, because a lot of the base doesn't vote.
It's only going to get worse as Hispanics become a larger part of the electorate.
See for yourself:
pnwmom
(108,973 posts)had a huge impact in this election.
Millions were purged, or required to provide a new proof of ID, or had their polling places eliminated, or were facing lines that lasted for hours. It wasn't laziness that lowered the Dems' numbers. It was very deliberate voter suppression by the Rethugs who control 35 of the state governments.
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)Whatever helps you sleep at night.
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,324 posts)A stupid scandal but totally self inflicted wound.
The bottom line is the race was Hillary's to lose. And she lost to Donald Trump.
Bernie would have picked up Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio.
LostOne4Ever
(9,288 posts)mcar
(42,298 posts)Do you really think Bernie would have gotten off scot free? GOP was ready:
http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044?rel=most_read2
MelissaB
(16,420 posts)Patiod
(11,816 posts)Ans they were itching to use it. Newsweek's Kurt Eichenwald describes am enormous opportunity research book he saw, and details stuff that would have sunk Bernie.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044%3famp=1
sheshe2
(83,728 posts)Whatever helps you sleep at night.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)Would have secured the rust belt. He didn't have Hillary Clinton's unfavorables no hint of scandal. Trump moved to the left of Hillary Clinton on trade and won the election.
I posted over a year ago that Hillary Clinton's unfavorable ratings could blow the election to the Republicans and to a candidate that also was unpopular too. Sanders would have had higher turnout. Calling him insider is a stretch.
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)came in contact with, they all said that their main issue was eliminating Obamacare. There is no way that mindset would support Sanders the socialist. And crazy Bernie would have been eviscerated by a putdown artist such as Trump. (note: crazy Bernie was Trump's nickname, not mine).
Hillary has a commanding lead in the popular vote, so all the anti-Hillary talk is just wishful thinking. They said the same nasty things about Gore, and look where that got them.
zonkers
(5,865 posts)and it wouldn't have taken much to flip those back to blue.
Response to ericson00 (Original post)
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Hekate
(90,633 posts)....(and earlier, thanks to third-partiers, including Bernie supporters who could not understand how things work in real life) .... A great many of us admire the heck out of Hillary and were very pleased to vote for her.
Incidentally, she WON the general election by a million votes and counting. Look to the misbegotten Electoral College for her so-called loss. She won the actual vote by a very health margin.
Hekate
(90,633 posts)She won the primaries over Bernie by 3 million votes, iirc. She won the general by a million votes and counting. SHE WON.
We need to get rid of the misbegotten Electoral College. It was a mistake to put it in the Constitution, and twice in this century it has given us a president who actually lost the actual vote.
budkin
(6,699 posts)Who would have ever thought Trump could win after that Access Hollywood tape? It's insane.
revbones
(3,660 posts)LostOne4Ever
(9,288 posts)[font style="font-family:'Georgia','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=4 color=#009999]He was in Washington as an independent. The definition of an outsider! He didn't belong to either the Republican or Democratic party.
Trumps Business success would have been used as evidence that he is one of the ones rigging the system against the average person and for the Billionaires like him. The Statements about Romney and others coming to him begging for money and the revelation that he didn't pay taxes would have been exploited perfectly by Bernie.
Trump's dad's loan would be used against him to show he was part of an elite who are keeping the working man down!
The "oldest set" voted for Trump. The rest of the people would have seen a choice between a decent man promising them their jobs back and a sexual predator offering the same. They would have hooked up with Bernie easy! My generation would have come out for him like they did for Obama and we would be talking president elect Sanders right now.
And rural America loved Bernie! He creamed Hillary in rural counties and he would have won way more of them than Hillary did not having to rely almost entirely on Urban voters. Again beating Trump at his own game.
Hillary was the Worst candidate possible at this time. The American people were sick of Dynasties at this point. They were sick of insiders and politicians. They wanted an outsider and someone to bring Change. That is Bernie all over. By nominating Clinton we told the American people we didn't give a fuck what they think...
...and they replied by voting Trump.
Hillary Missed her moment. She should have ran in 2004. She would have clobbered Bush on Clinton Nostalgia. But it is too late now.[/font]
ismnotwasm
(41,975 posts)The kind of people who voted Trump into office were not The kind that loved Bernie
Response to ericson00 (Original post)
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ismnotwasm
(41,975 posts)Really?
Response to ismnotwasm (Reply #49)
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stevenleser
(32,886 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Bernie might have been sightly more aligned with Trump on trade and less aligned with Barack on immigration but Bernie would have been flattened by the same anti-refugee tsunami. That's as far as I can tell at least.
let the immigration issue get out of hand. again another example of a bad campaign that believed it's own BS
Laffy Kat
(16,376 posts)Unless you're willing to lick the spoon.
CanonRay
(14,097 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Just amongst the media.
What we could have had:
seaglass
(8,171 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)I get tired of the argument that we can't have what other countries take for granted.
Face it.
Public health care should be as invisible as public street lights. It's the Right Wing in this country that feels every human need should have a price that makes the very few very rich.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)a Socialist candidate: http://www.gallup.com/poll/183713/socialist-presidential-candidates-least-appealing.aspx
47% would. Any Socialist candidate therefore has a maximum of 50% of the vote and it would go down from there.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/191354/americans-views-socialism-capitalism-little-changed.aspx?g_source=socialism&g_medium=search&g_campaign=tiles
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)of any empirical analysis to which you can cite.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Just the WORD "socialism" isn't.
But that's changing rapidly because young people LIKE IT and the old folks that still live like we're in the Cold War are giving up the ghost.
reflection
(6,286 posts)but I wouldn't bet on it. Trump would not have been able to "out-populist" Bernie, and as a white male not named Clinton, Bernie would have scooped up a fair amount of Trump's base straight away. The socialist, commie, et al attacks would definitely have come, but who knows how much sticking power they would have had. Nothing certainly seemed to stick to Trump. The electorate clearly wanted someone who was not an insider, and given the choice between "No Party - Insane" and "Independent/Democrat - Sane" he may have been able to pull it off. Hell, he might have walked away with it. He definitely would have picked up a few more rust belt states.
I will say that I did not think Bernie looked very good toward the end of the primary fight. He seemed tired and a bit ill. I don't know how he would have held up under the rigors of that long GE slog.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)closeupready
(29,503 posts)a kind of Heaven's Gate where at the appointed time, we'll all drink spiked koolaid and ascend to the comet in the sky, etc.
You are living in a FANTASY UNIVERSE if you refuse to acknowledge the basics of why she lost. And I, for one, am not going to waste energy on it any longer.
I'm done here.
MelissaB
(16,420 posts)closeupready
(29,503 posts)Jersey Devil
(9,874 posts)This kind of speculation leads no where. The only question is what do Democrats do going forward.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)He's direct and to the point. He would have shredded Trump in a debate.
That said I think you are right, the endless he's a socialist would have reduced his numbers.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Forget independents and doubly forget Republicans who might have been turned off by Trump.
For me, the misogyny and racism of Trump would have made it imperative to vote for Bernie, but absent those I don't know if I would have pulled the lever for him. I don't get the impression that Sanders had any real sense of what he was doing and what the unintended consequences of the kinds of changes he was advocating for might cause.
Sure, the ultimate end states that progressivism advocates for is something I believe in, but I also believe we need someone incredibly competent to get us there without destroying our economy and healthcare and other industries and I have zero confidence Bernie was the guy to do it. He would have destroyed more than he improved.
Guilded Lilly
(5,591 posts)Even though, as a loyal Hillary supporter, I personally embraced much of Sander's spirit, I think the Megalomaniac Cretin's shit hitting that particular fan would have put things even further into the living toilet that this election turned out to be.
Sanders didn't win the primary. Hillary did. Fact.
After she won the primary, enough people chose not to get behind her, vote third party, write-in or not vote at all to make the Cretin's win possible. Their reasons will forever be their own.
Even then, she handily won the popular vote.
I'm struggling with the hideous disappointment and using my controlled and focused anger to fight the real demon in all this nightmare: The pathological narcissist blowhard and the hateful party and incompetent media he used to sell his wild, projectionist lies to any foolish tool he could get to vote for him and is now threatening our country on every conceivable level.
Backward Blame is pointless. But each one of us has to fight through our emotions however we can and let/get it out however that manifest itself.
The pain/disgust/shock/fear/anger is often paralyzingly. But the only direction we must eventually face in all this treachery...is forward.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)Generator
(7,770 posts)I have so much love for Hillary and all she did. This took me a long time to come to. She stood up to the beast and gave her heart and soul. I hate tearing her apart. I also hate tearing Bernie apart. I believe that between vote stealing, and the big R-racism Trumpers still wouldn't have voted for a Jewish socialist. He would have been roasted as she was. And we will never know. Stop blaming Dems. I only blame Trump voters oh and the stupid ass media that can't tell the difference between a big lie that matters and a tiny one that doesn't. The Trumpers believe whatever lie is told to them. You don't think Breitbart & Drudge would have done the same to Bernie?
Oh and I blame Putin. Things no Dem can control.
andym
(5,443 posts)She had perhaps the strongest resume, however. I think Joe Biden would have been formidable and Elizabeth Warren would have been capable of capturing the change/progressive vote. Both have a relatively clean image and have some charisma. We will never know, because these two did not run. Michelle Obama would have been another terrific candidate, though I doubt she is interested in becoming President.