Did Hillary's VP pick cost her the election?

[Calculating]

Bernie supporters and other hard progressives were already stewing, and it seemed like Hillary did little to extend an olive branch to them. Simply picking a progressive running mate may have inspired these disillusioned people and given Hillary the turnout she needed. Instead she basically doubled down on establishment when she picked Tim Kaine. Trump got fewer popular votes than Romney. The difference was in the turnout Hillary drew compared to Obama. Several months ago I predicted Trump's win condition on here, and shockingly it came true. Low Democrat voter turnout caused by a campaign lacking in excitement.

The only other thing Hillary could have really done significantly better would have been to completely drop gun control from her platform. Gun control is a losing issue politically. It will always lose more voters than it will gain. For better or for worse, Americans love their guns.

[Historic NY]

1. YAWN........

he was the best choice.

[Calculating]

10. According to who, and why?

Nobody I know had even heard of the guy prior to his selection.

[Historic NY]

18. He was fairly well known in Democratic circles.

Gov. of VA
Lt. Gov. VA
Mayor of Richmond
sitting US Senator.

etc....

[Cobalt Violet]

22. maybe in the bubble, not so much in the real world.

[BlueProgressive]

38. 'YAWN' INDEED!

That was the problem.

I don't know if a different choice would have made the difference, but that one certainly didn't help her at all.

He was considered "safe". She was 'coasting'.

[Buzz Clik]

52. Ditto on the yawn. DU is in a paranoid holding pattern until the inauguration.

Last edited Tue Nov 29, 2016, 01:28 PM - Edit history (1)

They will then turn the volume to 11 on pronouncing the insanity and criminality of the Trump administration.

Until then, we must entertain ourselves with this.

[ismnotwasm]

68. I know right?

Jesus some of this shit is embarrassing

[Farmgirl1961]

2. Nope...

She won the popular vote by over 2.25 million and there was a lot of "funny stuff" in the swing states. She didn't lose anything and Trump didn't legitimately win.

[AgadorSparticus]

3. No. Tim Kaine was a good balance.

[GP6971]

4. Not at all

overall, an excellent pick.

[JI7]

5. if they didn't vote for Clinton they are not progressive . and no, Kaine was a great pick

VP picks don't matter much . but kaine did whatever he had to do and he would have been a great vp. not having kaine as vp is something else i feel bad about.

[elleng]

6. No. A DUer wrote:

'Feingold asked the DNC for help to reach out to these areas, and he went ignored. He and Hillary went down with the same ship. Her campaign felt that Wisconsin was safe, and instead of shoring it (along with Michigan and Pennsylvania) up, she was flirting with the idea of going into Georgia and Texas.

Feingold's anxiety should have been an indication to Hillary's campaign that she needed to go there, but she didn't. Not even once.'

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2631842

[oberliner]

14. She spent a lot of time and resources in Pennsylvania

Lots of ads, money spent, high profile surrogate rallies, etc.

She did everything she could to win that state.

[LisaL]

43. The polls coming out of WI were showing it was safe.

She had consistently held a 6 point lead there in the polls. Hindsight is always 20-20, it is not?

[Goblinmonger]

45. Except the guy FROM WI, who won elections there before said he needed help

and that there was the potential for the state not going Dem. But why listen to him, right?

[elleng]

58. Right. Thanks.

Folks really should pay attention to those actually on the ground, but it's difficult, I guess, if they're not saying what one wants to hear.

[Goblinmonger]

59. I think the Clinton campaign was incredibly out of touch.

Not only didn't they listen to Feingold, it seems them discounted a lot of what Bill was telling them that turned out to be correct.

[elleng]

62. Yes, they were. I've posted an article about 'out of touch.'

Haven't heard what Bill was telling them. Interesting, as been thinking, where were the real thinkers?

[Goblinmonger]

64. It's depressing

And way too many people here on DU are looking to blame everyone and not reflect on the missteps of the campaign.

Here's one article.

And she ceded the white working-class voters who backed Mr. Clinton in 1992. Though she would never have won this demographic, her husband insisted that her campaign aides do more to try to cut into Mr. Trump’s support with these voters. They declined, reasoning that she was better off targeting college-educated suburban voters by hitting Mr. Trump on his temperament.

...

Early on, Mr. Clinton had pleaded with Robby Mook, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, to do more outreach with working-class white and rural voters. But his advice fell on deaf ears.

The sophisticated data modeling Mr. Mook relied on showed that young, Latino and black voters would turn out as they had hoped. But while they favored Mrs. Clinton overwhelmingly, she could not run up the score with them like Mr. Obama had in 2012.

...

“I think Bill Clinton was right” about the need to concentrate more in those areas, said Jay S. Jacobs, a prominent New York Democrat, pointing to Mr. Trump’s victories in Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan, states Mrs. Clinton’s campaign had largely overlooked.

[elleng]

72. Depressing to say the very least, Goblinmonger,

aggravated by DUer's reaction you describe.

Here's the article I was thinking about, 'Hubris of Clinton Ground Game.' http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-hubris-of-the-clinton-ground-game_us_5831cebce4b099512f835e78

[elleng]

73. Robby Mook sure ain't no Carville!

OH, JEEZE! Gotta find a good movie to watch tonight.

[Ace Rothstein]

57. Sounds like the DNC put too much money into the top of the ticket and not enough into the Senate.

[lumberjack_jeff]

60. Of course she did. Her entire primary campaign was built on the southern firewall

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/01/hillary-clinton-southern-support-general-election

She didn't need Wisconsin in the general election any more than she needed them in the primary. They'll fall in line.

[Zambero]

7. Next...

[emulatorloo]

8. No. So we're supposed to capitulate to the NRA now too?

[Calculating]

11. It's about winning elections

How many people are gonna vote Dem for gun control, who wouldn't vote Dem anyway? How many people were scared away by the NRA fearmongering about how a Hillary appointed supreme court was gonna reverse Heller and end our individual right to keep and bear arms? Probably quite a lot...

Hillary was quite vocal on the gun issue, even calling Bernie out during the debates for not being anti-gun enough. I was literally cringing during that as I thought about the votes she was losing.

[yallerdawg]

54. How about being right on an issue...

and sticking with it come hell or high water?

Now we have a critique of the "feckless" Hillary for standing firm on an issue that matters to Democrats and liberal progressives?

This is ridiculous.

[lumberjack_jeff]

61. No. Capitulation is what happens when you lose elections. n/t

[Exilednight]

9. It was only one of many mistakes she made, and it's really far down on the list.

[msongs]

12. there are multiple reasons why she "lost" despite winning by 2.3 million votes

[Kentonio]

25. Yes she lost.

It's not a contest based on the popular vote, so talking about number of votes is about as relevant as saying you didn't really lose a football game because your team touched the ball more.

[jmg257]

48. She won Califonia by 4.4 million, and NY by 1.5 million.

6 million votes in just 2 states.

[pat_k]

13. Long lines in "certain places" and...

Votes suppressed by long lines in "certain places" + overconfident Hillary supporters and "analysts" = Formula for disaster


Any effect of VP pick is minor in comparison.

[Midwestern Democrat]

15. Kaine was basically a non-factor - he was essentially a safe "do no harm" pick.

He didn't add anything to the ticket but he didn't cause any problems either (although his Vice Presidential debate performance was not very good at all, IMO). He certainly didn't advance his stature in the party - nobody's thinking about him as a future presidential nominee.

[Garrett78]

16. Surveys suggest overwhelming support for gun control.

As for Kaine, I wasn't wild about the pick, but there are so many other factors that deserve more attention.

[Duckhunter935]

37. That must be why

The few that passed, barely passed

[Hoyt]

44. The white wing racists gun humpers would have voted for Trump if Clinton had given them all

another AR15.

[phleshdef]

17. No.

[a kennedy]

19. Ah, No......

[radical noodle]

20. Oh please...

And if only she'd worn a different color shoes and her suit jackets hadn't been so long...

[killbotfactory]

21. It didn't help

Great, he's a competent administrator, and he speaks spanish... awesome?

It should have been Warren.

[Hekate]

24. I'm so sorry you and others still think Warren is a liar. She TOLD anybody who asked that she ...

....was NOT INTERESTED in running for either President or VP. Yet the fantasy persists that she was not telling the truth. I don't get it.

As it is, Warren still has her Senate seat, which is a good thing.

[Hekate]

23. Don't be silly.Hillary embraced Bernie's platform & melded it with her own.Kaine is absolutely solid

What did you want her to do? Besides not being the woman with 30 years experience fighting for the rights of humanity, particularly the female and children parts so routinely overlooked by politicians.

Including Bernie -- very early in in his gadfly campaign I noticed that every social issue was subsumed into his economic theories. Women's reproductive health care? Don't worry -- single payer will solve all of that. Actually, no it won't unless you change social attitudes about women's rights. Specifically African American issues? Don't worry, raising the minimum wage will solve that. Actually, raising the minimum wage will not solve the problem of black males being killed for no reason by white cops. Latino/a -- never mind. Identity politics shouldn't be our focus.

Hillary is not a gadfly. She is highly focused and methodical. She extended lots f olive branches, only to have them snapped off in her hand by partisans convinced she "couldn't be trusted" due to 30 years of RW lies about her.

Bernie has gone back to doing what he has always done: be a gadfly who would rather scold Democrats for our perceived failures, than a real ally focused on the real enemy of us all, which is the RW and Trump.

[Kentonio]

26. Your candidate just handed the white house and the senate to Donald Trump.

You want to sit and insult the politician who warned you about the mood of the people and about what was going to happen, you go right ahead. If enough people do the same, then we can 'look forward' to losing again in 2020 too.

[MyNameGoesHere]

31. Your candidate?

Interesting. Who was your candidate?

[Kentonio]

35. Primary candidate, not party nominee for goodness sake.

[still_one]

34. Who did you vote for might I ask. Did Bernie's endorsement of Russ Feingold and

Zyper Teachout cause them to lose?

As for 2020, those self-identified progressives who refused to vote for Hillary have insured that the damage that will be done in the next four years will go way beyond that.

[lumberjack_jeff]

63. Kaine solid? Let's ask DU's resident Sanders supporters... Bueller? Bueller?

It seems they've left. I wonder why?

With all Sanders faults, to what do you ascribe the fact that unlike all the other significant Democrat players in this election cycle, he's still an elected official?

[Hekate]

65. I would ascribe his still being a Senator to being mid-term in his own 6 year seat, plus being....

....a popular officeholder from a small state. I'm pretty sure he can hold on as long as he wants to. Remaining Senator in a state with 35 million people is a lot heavier lift (thank you Barbara Boxer and Diane Feinstein -- and now Kamala Harris).

[montana_hazeleyes]

27. If there is 2020! There is going to be an unstable maniac at the helm

with the nuke codes. Everyone .knew. what. he. is .about. "campaign lacking excitement??"

Here's some excitement- We are the Titanic and trump is the Ice burg!!!!!

Oh for cripes sake.

[still_one]

36. Even assuming that there isn't a nuclear conflict from these unstable people, the damage that

will be done in the next four years will last for decades, and a lot of people are going to get hurt before this is over

[Raine]

28. I don't think he hurt or helped. nt

[kebob]

29. No

Next!

[stonecutter357]

30. no bernie cost her the election.

[still_one]

32. Did Bernie endorsing Russ Feingold and Zypher Teachout cost them the election?

[Mike Nelson]

33. No...

...it secured VA. You seem to be suggesting Bernie would have helped, but they would have lost VA. Kaine was a smart pick. Also, Hillary took the popular position on gun control. Trump lied - she is not against private, responsible ownership of firearms. Low voter turnout can also be attributed to voter suppression. They continue to make it more difficult for Democrats to vote. Many have to work all day and wait hours on a line, then they're told they're in the wrong polling place because it moved to a new area.

[Demsrule86]

39. No...by the time the bitter divisive primary with no conceession was over the damage was done.

I doubt we would have carried Virginia. A bitter and divisive primary cost us the election and it looks as if BOB's have learned nothing...ah well, Trump is in the House now...jut wait until their student loans are not only not forgiven but sent back to the bank assuming there will be student loans... no jobs after the massive tax cuts...as I have no doubt we are looking at another financial debacle...best case scenario...and then there are the people who will die...those who did not vote for Hillary literally have blood on their hands.

[Exilednight]

69. That's one way to look at it.

Then there's reality.

[TheBlackAdder]

40. There was a nationwide collective gasp, followed by the question, "Who the fuck is Tim Kaine?"

.



His choice alienated the left-leaning Republicans, many Independents, some Never Trumpers, and some Bernie folks.

To claim otherwise seems to be a detachment from reality.


.

[mtnsnake]

41. Sadly, very sadly, I agree with your sentiments about the gun control cause.

As far as Kaine costing her the election, I couldn't disagree more. If anyone cost us the election, it wasn't Kaine. The right wing had been preparing for a Hillary Clinton run for decades and they had their sheep convinced that Hillary was the devil. Nope, Kaine had very little, if anything, to do with her loss.

Back to the guns, it's absolutely absurd that a civilized country allows the kinds of automatic or semi-automatic weapons as we do. It is equally absurd how many needless deaths and murders are a result of handguns, but nothing is ever gets done about it because of the gun lobby's power. Sadly, I've come to realize that the cowboy mentality is not going away anytime soon. It makes it very difficult for us to win elections.

If Hillary had dropped gun control from her platform, as you suggested, she MIGHT have won the election, MAYBE, but she would never had made it through the primaries to begin with. Her stance on gun control was one of the reasons why she had so much support during the primaries.

[Vinca]

42. It didn't help.

[mcar]

46. No

[Goblinmonger]

47. Certainly didn't help.

She thought she had to move to the middle and pull from the establishment to win this election. Seems like she was wrong.

And how about you stop with the digs to the progressive wing of the party? I voted Clinton. Doesn't mean I didn't want a more progressive candidate for Pres and VP. But that shitting on progressives worked so well this election, probably want to keep it up for future elections, I guess.

[Orsino]

49. No.

There's no shortage of posts looking for one single factor to blame, and they are all silly. Nothing exists in a vacuum. We can attempt to assign relative weights to things we believe affected the outcome, but imagining that the surgical removal of an event or choice from the campaign wouldn't affect many others is not edifying.

[Dem2]

50. omg

[saltpoint]

51. No. eom

[Gothmog]

53. Tim Kaine was a great vp choice and gave Clinton Virginia

The complaints by the sanders supporters are really sad.

[Baitball Blogger]

55. I can only speak for myself.

I didn't know Tim Kaine before the selection and there just wasn't enough time afterward to convince me he wasn't a Vanilla DNC choice.

I was going to vote for Hillary, anyways, but that's because I still remember the pain from losing the 2000 election.

VP selections do matter. If Trump prevails through the Recount, I think we still might see a President Pence.

[raging moderate]

56. Tim Kaine is fine.

I voted for Bernie in the Primaries. Tim Kaine is fine.

[lumberjack_jeff]

67. Kaine was a poor choice. It did nothing to engage Sanders supporters.

Exit polls indicate that 23% of voters who thought that the country wasn't liberal enough voted for Trump. What drives liberals to vote for an asshole like Trump, and what does that suggest about their energy for the nominee?

[Gram Parsons]

66. No. Hillary lacks charisma. She is a natural introvert....

That's what cost her the election more than anything. There are of course many dynamics that caused the results. The VP pick remains a rather meaningless one.

Bernie would have won, not because he is more progressive, but because he inspires people. Unfortunately, charisma is job requirement #1 for big league presidential politics.

[jalan48]

70. I don't think anyone really noticed him. He's that kind of guy.

[TCJ70]

71. I don't think it cost her anything, but I also don't think it helped...

...I hadn't even heard of him until she picked him. I suspect a lot of other people were in that boat, too.