Identity politics actually won in North Carolina

[hrmjustin]

Zack Ford

The gubernatorial race in North Carolina was close, though not quite as close as originally thought. After weeks of challenges, Gov. Pat McCrory (R) conceded Monday, making him the only incumbent governor who was not reelected in 2016.

McCrory’s unique loss can only be attributed to his opposition to LGBT equality. He lost to Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) by just over 10,000 votes in a year when North Carolina otherwise voted more heavily Republican. Donald Trump (R), who McCrory openly campaigned with, bested Hillary Clinton (D) by about 173,000 votes. Sen. Richard Burr (R) held his seat with 267,000 more votes than challenger Deborah Ross (D). The major thing that differentiated McCrory from the candidates in these other races is that HB2 defined his campaign.

HB2 was the law the North Carolina legislature forced through in just one day back in March that banned cities from protecting LGBT people from discrimination and that specifically bans transgender people from using public facilities that match their gender identities. There was massive outcry and significant economic backlash against the state for passing HB2, with opponents adopting the slogan “#WeAreNotThis” to express their objections.

https://thinkprogress.org/mccrory-concession-north-carolina-identity-politics-92680f6e8883#.o96zyukv7

[LonePirate]

1. I guess NC voters compartmentalized HB2 when voting against Clinton and Ross but for Cooper.

If someone was so motivated by anger over HB2, how could they not also vote for Clinton and Ross?

I simply don't understand that ticket splitting logic. Then again, there is so much about this past election which I do not understand.

[hrmjustin]

3. I don't get ticket splitters either.

[benEzra]

5. Clinton lost by 180,000 votes here; Cooper won by 15,000 I think, so that's about a 200k delta.

Keep in mind that the delta doesn't necessarily result from split tickets; it could also result from people simply leaving the presidential portion blank, or voting a protest candidate (Johnson or Stein).

Among other things, Roy Cooper is pro-choice on guns and was NRA-endorsed in prior elections, whereas during the primaries Clinton advocated banning popular rifles and magazines that about 2 million North Carolinians own, a position that is hugely unpopular here outside of Durham/etc. I'm not sure if that's the primary reason for the split, but the margin of loss is less than 10% of that 2 million, so even a 20% undervote with 50% turnout among that group would more than account for the delta between Cooper and Clinton.

There may be other issues in play as well, e.g. Cooper being a North Carolinian vs. the NY/DC-centric tone of the campaign, but I think the proposed bans were a big one. The NY SAFE Act or California's bans would *not* play here.

[ebbie15644]

2. I don't have a link but

someone else commented that they believed he lost because he was privatizing roads and turning them into pay roads

[hrmjustin]

4. No doubt there was more then one issue.

[JI7]

6. i don't think it was about gay rights itself as much as losing the sports games

[Grown2Hate]

7. Exactly my first thought. Just the loss of revenue to the state in general is what probably did it,

or at least contributed mightily.

[triron]

8. methinks voter disenfranchisement won...

plus maybe some hacking (at least in the presidential race).