Rove admits Obama way up in his first EC map -- Obama 284 Romney 157

[DCBob]

Last edited Fri Apr 27, 2012, 06:54 AM - Edit history (1)

Republican strategist Karl Rove gives Obama the advantage in his first Electoral College Map polling memo:

In the first Karl Rove & Co. 2012 Electoral College map, there are 18 states (220 Electoral College votes) where Obama has a solid lead and 15 states (93 EC votes) polling solidly for Romney, according to the latest polling average in each state. There are six states with a combined 82 EC votes classified as “toss-­-ups” (IA, FL, MO, NC, SC, VA); five states (MI, NH, NV, OH, PA) with a combined 64 EC votes that “lean” Obama; and six states (AZ, GA, KY, SD, TN, TX) with a combined 79 EC votes that “lean” Romney. In other words, there are 17 states and a total of 225 Electoral College votes up for grabs.

Top line math: that's 284 "safe" or "lean" Obama, versus 157 "safe" or "lean" Romney states.

more: http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/04/rove-obama-has-the-electoral-college-lead-121786.html

Rove is an asshole but he knows polling.

Update... here's Rove's map:

[zbdent]

1. are you sure it's not to scare up some more $$$?

[DCBob]

2. Very possible..

but I think the numbers are real and accurate.

[unblock]

4. bingo!

pollsters with an agenda other than purely academic have (at least) two sets of polls and poll results.

the ones they share with their clients, and the ones they share with the public.

obama's certainly got a solid lead regardless, but you can be sure that the numbers rove chooses to make public have a purpose behind them, and it isn't to simply lay out the truth.

[Dawson Leery]

5. Possible.

Still, the incumbent has the advantage.

[Jim Lane]

7. The listing of South Carolina as "toss-up" supports your theory.

I think Obama's the favorite at this point, but I don't think Romney is actually as far behind as Rove is saying.

[fujiyama]

9. IF SC were truly a toss up

Romney would be totally and utterly screwed. He'd be looking at a loss of epic proportions.

But I live in SC and realistically Obama has about as good a chance winning this state as Romney winning Massachusetts. Not going to happen.

[DCBob]

10. I agree... SC is not a toss up

I think thats the only state where I think his numbers are way off. The rest look good.. especially compared to some other EC maps I have seen in the MSM.

I added Rove's map to my OP. Take a look.

[zbdent]

12. I agree there, as with Arizona.

but I'm not going to but large sums of money on that being near reality ...

[dbackjon]

26. Obama has a chance here

Latino vote is increasing - less likely for them to vote Romney now than McCain in 2008. Plus they are organization and GOTV.

[racaulk]

17. I agree. I had a similar thought on election night in 2008.

When the pundits called Virginia quickly for Obama and were saying Indiana and North Carolina were "too close to call," I knew McCain was finished. There was no need to wait for the western states to vote. It was all over but the crying at that point.

[Daniel537]

13. SD and KY light red; SC Tossup

Yeah, i think your probably right. As much as i'd love to see it happen, no way in hell are we winning those states this year.

[grantcart]

14. Doesn't mean that it isn't true. If your in a raft heading for the falls the best way to

get everyone paddling is to tell them what is ahead.

[grantcart]

16. On second thought my answer is no, atleast for Romney.

If you were going to scare up money for Romney you would make it a lot closer.

If anything this is a map to tell big money people to not to waste any money on a lost cause like Romney and put it into Senate and Congressional races. If that is correct then the Republican establishment has just cut Romney loose to float on his own.

Again even if that was his agenda, it doesn't mean that it isn't true.

[Xipe Totec]

3. How nobull of him nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. K&R

[center rising]

8. Wonder if Karl still has "the math"???

[great white snark]

11. Thinking this will be a cakewalk makes Karl a happy man.

That vile human being deserves no happiness in his life. GOTV.

[grantcart]

15. How odd that this is one of the most accurate maps yet.

Look at AZ and TX. AZ is polling even closer.

Don't know about Georgia but the fact that TX is not in double digits should make Republicans shutter.

[DCBob]

18. Yep.. so far this is the most accurate EC map I have seen.

imo.

[Inuca]

20. Not that odd, because Rove knows his stuff n/t

[RedSpartan]

19. Even if Rmoney wins all the swing states here he loses.

Last edited Fri Apr 27, 2012, 02:35 PM - Edit history (1)

And right now, I can easily see President Obama winning IA, VA and FL.

November is a very long time from now, but as it stands, this is the President's election to lose.

[Yavin4]

21. If Texas Is "Leaning" to Romney, Then He's Got Big Trouble

If he has to defend Texas, then he's done. That's like NY "leaning" to Obama.

Also, SC is a "toss up"? Man, that's bad news for Romney. Even if Obama loses both, making Romney defend them and spend time and money in each state is going to hurt him.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

22. Wow!

If this holds, winning every single "toss up" won't even enable Romney to win. This shows that President Obama is getting a strong start for November!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. I don't get those numbers on each state. Like Idaho -4 ?? Colorado 13% - Obama is not

leading Romney by 13 in CO. And, Romney -3 Wyoming??

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. Duh...EVs in ID and WY. Retract. Why is R down 13 in CO?

[DCBob]

25. I think thats about right.

Latest polls had Obama up significantly in CO. I dont think I saw any polls with O up by 13 but it was high single digits.

[K8-EEE]

27. Latest PPP poll does have Prez up by 13 in CO

PPP is the only one polling in CO for some reason. You can link to all the latest polls on the electoral map at realclearpolitics.com

[DCBob]

28. Wow. cool.

CO is turning true blue!

[Sheepshank]

29. Rove is simply making the justification to hold back spending PAC $ on Romney.

Chances are, Rove is preparing to spend all that PAC money on House races instead.

[DCBob]

30. Yeah, those numbers would seem to discourage PACs from spending on sure loser.

Other Republicans, eg George Will, have suggested to forget about the WH and focus on Congress.