2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama pulls slightly ahead in crazy Rasmussen tracking poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_pollRomney has been ahead for about the last ten days, but pulled ahead today. Personally, I think this poll is garbage.
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)Partisan affiliation is typically a key indicator in Presidential election years. Over the past 20 years, exit polls have shown the party identification numbers ranging from even to a 7 point Democratic advantage. The Democrats best year was 2008 while 2004 showed the best numbers for the GOP.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
grantcart
(53,061 posts)dramatically under sample Democrats.
Expect them to get more in line after September in order to salvage their public reputation.
I expect they make a lot of money by doing internal polling for Republican candidates in which they are brutally honest. This is kind of an advertising schtick to show campaigns how Republican they are, then they deliver the real news.
They couldn't survive in their business if their private polling was as skewed as their public polling is.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)McCain was up ... then, around October, Obama suddenly has a 2 point lead, then 3, then 4 ... and by the last week ... Obama was up 6% in their polls.
The only polls anyone remembers are the ones in that last week.
Johnny2X2X
(19,049 posts)Rasmussen's goal isn't to gauge or report public opinion so much as to shape it. They are no different than pollsters for particular campaigns. They only adjust their results close to election time as to appear accurate, but the next 5 months will be blatant distortion of polls in order to boost Romney and motivate the GOP base.
The Romney bounce from winning the nomination is over, he'll fall behind a little more now before he get the bounce from picking a running mate. He's going to get embarrassed in the debates either way, so it's not like these polls matter either way right now.