2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumVA: Counties/cities to watch tonight
I've been running simulations of the three top races in Virginia based on polls and past election returns, trying to get a sense of where these races are heading. The following counties and cities are the ones which were not consistently won by the same candidate in every simulation.
Governor
Best case scenario: McAuliffe +14.6
Worst case scenario: McAuliffe +4.0
Swing counties/cities (best case scenario, worst case scenario)
McAuliffe favored
Accomack (D +8.1, R +2.9)
Cumberland (D +6.8, R +3.4)
Dinwiddie (D +7.4, R +3.4)
Fluvanna (D +5.5, R +5.1)
King and Queen (D +10.5, R +0.8)
Lunenburg (D +5.6, R +4.4)
Nottoway (D +9.9, R +0.0)
Rappahannock (D +6.5, R +4.1)
Southampton (D +10.2, R +1.7)
Virginia Beach city (D +8.4, R +0.6)
Tossup
Halifax (D +5.2, R +5.2)
Cuccinelli favored
Bath (D +3.6, R +7.4)
Bedford city (D +1.7, R +8.4)
Chesterfield (D +3.3, R +7.0)
Clarke (D +2.4, R +8.8)
Dickenson (D +1.4, R +13.7)
Galax city (D +0.9, R +11.1)
Henry (D +3.4, R +8.8)
Lancaster (D + 4.4, R +8.6)
Lynchburg city (D +2.8, R +7.3)
Mecklenburg (D +1.6, R +8.8)
Norton city (D +3.5, R +10.8)
Spotsylvania (D +0.7, R +8.8)
Stafford (D +2.4, R +7.5)
Lieutenant Governor
Best case scenario: Northam +15.9
Worst case scenario: Northam +7.8
Swing counties/cities (best case scenario, worst case scenario)
Northam favored
Cumberland (D +7.8, R +0.2)
Fluvanna (D +5.2, R +1.8)
Halifax (D +5.3, R +1.8)
Lunenburg (D +5.7, R +1.0)
Rappahannock (D +6.4, R +1.6)
Tossup
Chesterfield (D +4.0, R +4.1)
Jackson favored
Bath (D +4.0, R +7.4)
Bedford city (D +1.6, R +6.4)
Clarke (D +1.7, R +6.7)
Dickenson (D +0.1, R +13.6)
Galax city (D +0.3, R +9.8)
Henry (D +3.2, R +7.4)
Lancaster (D +3.7, R +4.4)
Louisa (D +0.1, R +7.8)
Lynchburg city (D +3.0, R +5.5)
Mecklenburg (D +1.4, R +5.5)
Norton (D +2.7, R +9.9)
Spotsylvania (D +0.9, R +6.6)
Stafford (D +2.6, R +4.6)
Attorney General
Best case scenario: Herring +6.7
Worst case scenario: Obenshain +0.9
Swing counties/cities (best case scenario, worst case scenario)
Herring favored
Alleghany (D +8.5, R +1.1)
Loudoun (D +5.6, R +1.5)
Montgomery (D +7.1, R +1.3)
Nelson (D +8.1, R +0.3)
Staunton city (D +5.3, R +1.5)
Winchester city (D +5.8, R +1.5)
Tossup
Chesapeake city (D +3.4, R +3.5)
Obenshain favored
Buckingham (D +2.9, R +4.1)
King and Queen (D +1.8, R +6.0)
Nottoway (D +1.8, R +4.7)
Southampton (D +0.8, R +6.3)
Virginia Beach city (D +0.6, R +6.2)
IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)nyquil_man
(1,443 posts)I'm not so sure about Herring.
There's more polarization than I expected.
IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)nyquil_man
(1,443 posts)Right now he's running about 8 points ahead of McAuliffe and 6 points ahead of Herring.
It looks like McAuliffe might perform near the bottom of his range. Herring might inch by, but it's going to be close.