2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSomething Clinton This Way Comes. Will the GOP be ready? (The Weekly Standard)
Something Clinton This Way Comes
Will the GOP be ready?
NOV 18, 2013, VOL. 19, NO. 10 BY JAY COST
The governorship of Virginia has been held by some of the most eminent men in American history: Patrick Henry, Thomas Jefferson, Edmund Randolph, Henry Lee, James Monroe. And now, Terry McAuliffe will sit in their chair. Depressing? Perhaps, but it is worth remembering that for about half a century, the political machine of Harry Byrd selected Virginia governors based upon their loyalty to the Organization. If Virginia has seen better leaders than the Democratic apparatchik who served as chief fundraiser during the scandal-plagued Bill Clinton years, it should come as some comfort to denizens of the Old Dominion that it has (probably) also seen worse.
What to make of the longer-term implications of the 2013 off-off-year elections, both in Virginia and in New Jersey, where Chris Christie cruised to an overwhelming victory? It is hard to judge what they mean for 2014 and beyond, although many pundits will try. These are but 2 states out of 50, and, moreover, the electorates that emerged last week will probably not be seen again. Such is the nature of low-turnout affairs a year before a midterm and three years before a presidential election. Still, there are some conclusions to draw about the broader national picture, especially looking at the two states together.
Lets start with Virginia. Terry McAuliffe has all the sleaziness of Bill Clinton with none of the Southern charm or policy wonkery. Yet he managed to win a comfortable, if underwhelming, victory in a state that until recently had been solidly in the Republican column. The manner in which he accomplished this feat is what should interest conservatives, for he mimicked the old Clinton approach, which will surely be Hillary Clintons tack in 2016.
McAuliffe did exactly what his master did in 1996. First, he started with a solid base of support from those in the lower socioeconomic strata of society, in particular poor African Americans. According to the exit polls, he won 65 percent of those who make less than $30,000 a year, and 90 percent of African Americans. To this substantial groupabout half his total voting coalitionhe added people at the high end of the socioeconomic strata. He won 57 percent of people with a postgraduate degree and 55 percent of people who make more than $200,000 a year. In Virginia, a state with a tight relationship to the federal government, these are people with great faith in the capacity of technocratic experts to manage society. Add their gentry liberalism (support for environmentalism, abortion rights, gay marriage, etc.), and they were easy McAuliffe targets.
full article
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/something-clinton-way-comes_766430.html?utm_source=Morning%20Jay%20Alert%20w%20Ad%20words%20-%2011/08/2013&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TWS%20Alerts
Beacool
(30,247 posts)Having said that, this is interesting:
"It is in this way that McAuliffe pulled in just enough anti-Obama voters to win. While a majority of Virginia voters disapproved of the president, McAuliffe pulled in 11 percent of them. Of voters who opposed Obamacare, McAuliffe won 11 percent. This is not much by any stretch of the imagination, but elections are always fought at the marginsand, importantly, McAuliffe managed to win more Obama opponents than Cuccinelli won Obama supporters. In his quest, he was assisted enormously by a divided Republican party, including a donor class that never really gave Cuccinelli a second look. The states attorney general, of course, failed to help his own cause by running an inept campaign. Ditto the party activists who saddled Cuccinelli with a lieutenant governor candidate, E. W. Jackson, whose controversial comments put him too far outside the mainstream."
Let this be a lesson to the GOP, run a Tea Party extremist and only win in a very red state. Although, this is a lesson that I hope they don't learn until after the 2016 election.
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)the "get Clinton" movement of the 90's. Was I incorrect to assume thinking members of DU don't know WS is a conservastive rag?
Beacool
(30,247 posts)My point was that even they realized what a flawed candidate Cuccinelli and his running mate were and it was interesting to read that McAuliffe won 11% of people who were against Obama and Obamacare. That's how the GOP can tell that they had a horrible candidate, even people who weren't Democrats preferred to vote for his opponent.
dionysus
(26,467 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)First time you gave me two bankies at one time. Twice the warmth and cuddling.
dionysus
(26,467 posts)don't let anyone try to steal one!
Beacool
(30,247 posts)Wuaahhhaahhhhhaaaa!!! (evil laughter).