2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum2016 Quinnipac Poll: Chris Christie 43, Hillary Clinton 42 (generic ballot test 39-39 D/R)
A new poll finds former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie virtually tied in a potential 2016 matchup. Christie takes 43 percent in the Quinnipiac poll, compared with 42 percent for Clinton. Christies strength comes in part from his strong showing among independents: He leads among the group by 16 points, 48 percent to 32 percent. He also leads among men and white voters, and comes within 12 points of Clinton among Hispanic voters far above 2012 GOP candidate Mitt Romneys performance with that demographic. Clintons strength is with women (she leads 48 percent to 39 percent) and among black voters (77 percent to 12 percent).
Clinton has big leads against other possible GOP presidential contenders. She leads both Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) by 9 points, 49 percent to 40 percent, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
The poll also found that voters are split over which party theyd prefer to vote for in their own congressional district: Democrats and Republicans each take 39 percent. Thats a big change from early last month when Quinnipiac found Democrats leading Republicans by 9 points in the generic ballot test, 43 percent to 34 percent.
Still, voters disapprove of congressional Republicans at higher rates than they do of congressional Democrats: voters disapprove of Republicans more than they approve by a 53 point margin (73 percent to 20 percent), compared with a 32 point margin (62 percent to 30 percent) for Democrats. The poll surveyed 2,545 registered voters from Nov. 6-11, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 perce
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/chris-christie-hillary-clinton-2016-election-poll-99800.html#ixzz2kk1yXhh1
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Q leans right and had Rmoney winning the election last year.
big_dog
(4,144 posts)The governors of New Mexico and New Jersey are becoming fast friends.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/11/chris-christie-susana-martinez-is-this-your-2016-republican-ticket/281360/
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)I am saying his numbers are up because of media coverage. He has NOT been vetted. The tea party holds great influence in the GOP.
big_dog
(4,144 posts)its probably the GOP's only chance to remain competitive nationally
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)and will not get the nomination. The Tea Party wing hate him, and they control the process. His only hope is to, like Romney, run hard to the right. When he does that his numbers will tank.
That said, I REALLY wish it was someone other than HRC. Warren isn't going to run, though she might be persuaded to join the the #2 slot.
big_dog
(4,144 posts)can Warren deliver the oratory goods exciting the foot soldiers/get out the vote ground troops as Veep though?
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,391 posts)n/t
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)If she doesn't I will be surprised.
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)The baggers have been the core of the GOP for decades now. Yet, after St. Ronnie left office, who have the GOP nominees been? One establishment figure after another: Bush, Dole, Baby Bush, McCain, Romney. There's a pattern there, and it points straight to Christie (unless Jeb runs).
big_dog
(4,144 posts)Last edited Fri Nov 15, 2013, 06:16 PM - Edit history (1)
its just not his time at all, too many people hate the Bushes, even Rick Perry looks too much like a Bush to get traction
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)any candidate who expects the nomination to move hard to the right. Which then makes the candidate lose in most general elections.
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)that Christie won't do that. If I were one of Christie's handlers, I'd be advising him to use the campaign to decry Teahadism as radicalism while he claims that he stands for the "true" conservative values of the old GOP. I'd be looking for one "Sister Soldjah moment" after another; they'd be tailor-made for Christie's bullying personality. The baggers are still a minority of the GOP, and in the primary they're likely to have multiple candidates; Christie, watching them divide their minority while he takes the majority of non-baggers, wins the nomination in a walk and enters the general election as the guy who stood up to the Tea Party, effectively gutting what would have been a major Dem campaign issue.
Watch for it: there will be a moment -- a debate, probably -- where Christie simply blows up at Ted Cruz, red-faced and full-Jersey. And in that moment, the GOP will be a viable party again and we'll have a real fight on our hands.
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)in the last year.
The Tea Party has enough money and clout to seriously damage him, and if he plays to the center as a "moderate" they will pull out all the stops to take him down.
I look forward to a BRUTAL primary. I only wish I had the concession on straight razors and axe handles.
big_dog
(4,144 posts)during the primaries and he might pick up even MORE I's in the rust belt and Blue Dogs/Nascar Dads in the south. So in that case we should probably be hoping for a Rick Perry type or someone beatable without a lot of national experience like Paul Ryan
former9thward
(31,923 posts)They are strong in certain parts of the country and not so much in others. In 2012 the tea party types definitely did not want Romney. They wanted anybody but Romney. Romney represented the establishment.
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)But, his courting them drove him further right, which caused him to lose.
The same thing will happen to Christie.
lostincalifornia
(3,639 posts)about Rudy after 9/11 and his presidential aspirations, and that did not amount to much
The gender vote is being underestimated I believe in this poll
Funny why they did not include jeb
So we have an anti-gay, anti-choice, anti-public education jerk running in a hypothetical match up against Hillary
And exactly what has the media done to report on the actual positions Christie has?
Not discuss them
This poll is worthless
Beacool
(30,247 posts)The problems with the ACA are dragging down every Democrat's polls. Christie's polls are up because of his recent win in NJ and the subsequent media attention. I'm not worried right now about 2016. It's way too soon and three years are a lifetime in politics.
I'm more concerned about the 2014 midterm elections if the problems with the ACA are not fixed in the next few months.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)They have been tearing down Democrats and boosting Christie.
Could Christie be the next W?The MSM keeps making him look like moderate and different than rest when both are lies.Christie Is as
much antiworker and far right as the rest.
The MSM Is doing all they can to make 2014 another 2010.CBS as far as I am concerned Is no better than Fox or CNN
and with Obama and Democrats craving on Junk Insurence and Bill CLinton giving the knife to Obama things aren't looking good.
The MSM Is out for
1 estroying the ACA
2:Making sure republicans keep house In 2014
3:Helping republicans take the senate In 2014
4:electing Christie as president In 2016
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)It all depends on Allan Lichtmans 13 key system if the democrats keep the White House
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)primaries. Crazy people run the party now.
big_dog
(4,144 posts)and he can run and win with 15% of the vote....
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)Cruz, Santorum, Perry, and Paul will be ahead of him.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)public scenes when the press starts to ask him about this hinted-at baggage. Yelling and wagging his finger at a teacher will seem like one of his greater and more composed moments. Count on it. He's got a thin skin, as they say. Can't take the heat. I'd bet he has high blood pressure, as well. He's a classic.
No way he gets the nomination. He's already kind of a caricature.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I think there is still a good chance something damaging will come out about Christie if he runs. He has a very nasty temper and is a bully. Some people on DU assume that Christie will be the nominee. A teacher in high school once told us assuming makes an ass out of you and me.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)went along with it by virtually ignoring Buono and saving their party money.
Susana Martinez, R-NM, OTOH, is a good choice for VP. Problem is, she probably can't switch. But like Bernie Sanders and even Elizabeth Warren, getting national press, as long as it is positive, is never a bad thing for a career advancement.
Haven't heard that "truthism" for a long time...so true.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)but I would like to have a quiet word with him so he can put in his application to join the Democratic Party. Even though he has a history of being rather rightish it's not too late. If he doesn't we will go after him with full force.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Embracing "Hillary the Inevitable" is setting us up for failure. That is what I'm seeing. The Corporate Media will turn on her and get people to start hating her. Not to mention, the strategy to divide the Democrats: Clintons vs. Obama.
RandySF
(58,437 posts)tartan2
(314 posts)extreme right winger that he is! He is not a centrist or a moderate.
big_dog
(4,144 posts)like Romnney and the 47% comments, the temper will come out in a heated campaign
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)If the two of them are the nominees it will likely be close. I still think Hillary will be the next President.
DFW
(54,268 posts)The margin of error could change radically if one or both candidates end up not being born.
Three years in politics might as well be 75 years. Speculation about 2016 at this point is about as useful as speculating about 2088.