2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama only down 5 in Montana...
He did lose the state by only two-points four years ago, so, Romney has increased on McCain's totals. Still, in a right-leaning state, a state Clinton lost in 1996 by 3, Gore lost by 25 and Kerry lost by 21, to be within five is pretty solid. It's also a five-point improvement from the last poll that had him down 10.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/romney-up-five-in-montana.html
My guess is that Obama won't win Montana. But if he's losing Montana by only 5 in November, it probably means he's winning the general by a margin similar to '08.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)It is not expensive to advertise there and that state's economy is booming.
BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)It wouldn't take much to make a race there very competitive.
A poster below mentioned the Libertarian candidate who could siphon off GOP votes. There is also a significant Ron Paul factor in MT although Paul will not be the GOP candidate. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of MT Republicans write in "Paul," rather than vote for Romney.
Yes, MT went for McCain last time around, but McCain was admired by many for his military service and his so-called "maverick" quality. (I am not one of his admirers, btw, but I know many who cited these as reasons for voting for him.)
Romney will not have the military "edge" and his silver spoon heritage, wealth and total failure to connect with ordinary people will not endear him to typical Montanans.
The Obama Team should go for it. Absolutely.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Obama should take a try at winning the state.
Montana was once Democratic and has a very popular Democratic government and AG.
He only lost by 2 points last time and Rmoney is a truly a bad person.
PPP has him ahead by 5.Plus If Johnson as Liberterian Is on ballet he makes It a dead heat with Romney 43,Obama 41 and Johnson 7.
Romney Is not liked with only 28 percent favorabilty.If Obama only loses by 5 that Is good considering how hard It Is for a Democrat
to carry It at presidential leval.Clinton only took It In 1992 due to Perot getting 29 percent of the vote there.
This signals the problems for republicans.Romney Isn't well liked.Many are only votiing for him to vote against Obama while many
voting for Obama are voting for him.
Obama's competive In Arizona,and Missouri.He loses Montanna by 5 and Texas by 7.All proof of the weakaness of Romney and the BS
of the close election the MSM keep trying to sell.Which Is why they ignore polls like this.
Daniel537
(1,560 posts)Third party candidates have usually been strong there as compared to the rest of the country. Since Obama only lost by 2 in 08, this is not as much of a long shot as people might think.
NYC Liberal
(20,135 posts)But since I don't think he'll make it a priority, it will simply be close like it was in 2008.
Who knows, though. Maybe he will win there without the effort.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)voters in Montana are just getting to know Romney.
The polls show that the more they know the less they like him,
There has been a year of anti Obama rhetoric and now Obama gets to start his campaign.
In any case Romney will have to spend money and time to keep Montana.
Its all good.