Told You So: Obamacare’s Back

[DonViejo]

By Michael Tomasky December 12th 2013 5:45 AM

From an atrocious starting point, enrollment on HealthCare.gov is essentially quadrupling. As predicted, by next fall, the law is going to be a net plus for Obama and the Democrats.

If one looks just at the raw, bottom-line number the Department of Health and Human Services released Wednesday—365,000 citizens enrolled since October 1—one might be inclined to think it’s not so hot. And it isn’t. That’s 180,000 or so a month, and if you post that number against the stated goal of 7 million by next spring, the stated goal looks awfully chimerical, and the thing seems a disaster (180,000 times six months, the enrollment period, is just 1.08 million).

Dig a little deeper and things look considerably better. If we could graph it, the bar line of enrollment would make for a pretty impressive ski slope: After just 27,000 people signed up in the whole of October, The New York Times reported over the weekend, about 100,000 people signed up in November, and then, in the first week of December alone, 112,000 chose plans. The Los Angeles Times put out slightly different numbers Wednesday but agreed on the trend. From an obviously atrocious starting place, enrollment is essentially quadrupling. If that pace were to continue, the 7 million figure would be cleared in March.

I still wouldn’t quite bet on that. But I would definitely and unflinchingly bet on the central proposition I argued last week: By next fall, HealthCare.gov is going to be a net plus for Obama and the Democrats.

Wishful thinking? You can call it that if you want to. But I warn you I’m not usually a wishful thinker. Like most partisans on either side, I tend to expect the worst. It’s usually a wise insurance policy; you’re rarely disappointed. I write such things only when I really think them, like the time in August 2012 when I wrote a column suggesting that Obama could very well win about 330 electoral votes. He won 332, which most anyone else would have said when I wrote that piece was crazy.

full article
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/12/12/told-you-so-obamacare-s-back.html

[sharp_stick]

1. That's exactly why the pukes tried so hard

to throw every roadblock in front of it that they could. They're terrified that it's going to work and be popular pretty much driving yet one more coffin nail into the lid of the Republican party.

[ebbie15644]

2. As long as they are actually enrolled. The test will be in January

[yeoman6987]

3. Test

I think the real test is next October when companies have to comply. That is going to be interesting. Best of luck to it working out but again it is going to be a difficult transition.

[ebbie15644]

4. Yes and I don't think we should be complacent because people are signing up.

[Blue Idaho]

5. That's the Affordable Care Act now buddy...

Now that this thing works - the teapublicans will no longer refer to it as "Obamacare."