Nate Silver : "Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup"

[cheapdate]

Granted this analysis is from July, 2013 but Nate Silver's race-by-race look at the 2014 senate elections shows a sobering picture. Democrats are probably giving up three seats due to retirement.

A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.

Holding the senate IS NOT a given in 2014.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/15/senate-control-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/?_r=2#more-40702

[Mass]

1. We know that. But this is the information we have NOW.

In 2011 and 2009, people were saying the same thing.

This said, we can only hope the administration will find their pace with Obamacare and will start doing things.

[Cirque du So-What]

3. I tend to disregard what 'people' are saying

but when that person is Nate Silver, I prick up my ears. It also goes without saying that Democrats must never become complacent or take victory for granted.

[Mass]

4. I do not think we should ignore it. But it is important to remember this is a post from this summer.

Things change, as we have seen in the second part of the year. So, any report is to take with caution. This is what Nate Silver said a few months ago. We have no idea what the situation is today and what it will be in 10 months. There is no way to know.

[lancer78]

14. Nate's record

on senate races is not perfect. His error rate is 10%. A local senate candidate like Heidi heitkamp can make his analysis wrong.

[Doctor_J]

9. I think they want to have a Repuke congress

they then get cover for passing the right-wing agenda that their donors want.

[Turbineguy]

2. Let's hope the voters are slightly less self-destructive.

[workinclasszero]

5. I think the teabaggers will help the democrats keep the senate

By shutting down the government again next year at least once or twice before the elections.

F' in idiots.

[davidpdx]

6. The numbers are going to remain in flux until after the primaries

Then we'll have a better idea which races are the ones we need.

[karynnj]

7. The silver lining is that if we keep control in 2014, 2016 could be a year that we really gain.

2016 has all the seats that we lost in 2010 up again - many in states we should not have lost.

I agree that given the number of Democratic seats up vs Republican ones in 2014, this could be a tough year. The same was said for 2012 - where we actually - unexpectedly gained. The reason we won was that the Republicans threw away safe seats by their inhospitably to non tea party nuts - like Snowe and Lugar. Both of them could have held the seat.

One thing that could actually hurt us is that the tea party has reached a low in their approval. This could mean that the Republicans might stop shooting themselves in the foot. However, it might be that with ACA working reasonable well, we will keep the seats with strong incumbents in purple states. (I do think it entirely likely that we lose seats -- which is why I really do not get the Schumer story that he was willing to withhold money from MA (to protect Brown) in exchange for a vote that would mean nothing - as it would not pass the House. While true that this would not risk control in 2012, 2014 was easily already seen as a possible problem. )

[Doctor_J]

8. We have once again shown that we can get almost nothing done

with majorities and the WH. You need to face the facts - The Repukes give their voters what they want. The Dems do not.

[cheapdate]

10. "Majorities" should not be plural -- unless you're referring to the 111th congress of 2009.

The Democrats have a majority (singular) in the senate. Of course, if you're talking about a filibuster proof majority in the senate, there was only a short period in 2009 between the seating of Al Franken (after his opponent finally gave up challenging the vote) and the seating of Scott Brown when he won the election to replace Ted Kennedy.

[blue14u]

11. We don't get what we

[b

want because we are seating centrist third way candidates.

( I call them Republicans hiding behind the (D)....

If democrats would vote to eliminate them from our party, we could see some real

change. A progressive change. I'm tired of the scam we have been dealt

by our party with these elected, fake democrats.

As for Nate Silver, I do pay attention to him, but I still vote and never take

it for granted I can vote.

[blkmusclmachine]

12. ,

,

[TeamPooka]

13. oh crap. GOTV!

[tabbycat31]

15. That article is dated 7/15

However, I don't disagree that it's a wakeup call

[bigdarryl]

16. Why on hell are you posting July articles

[cheapdate]

17. Because it's one thing feel good

about the prospects for Democrats based primarily on a self-reinforcing feeling that things are moving our way. It's another thing to look at the actual contests that will be decided next November.

Nate's rundown from five months ago was the best concise and complete summary of the 2014 senate races that I ran across. I was very surprised by what I found.


What's changed in five months? There are still 35 races to be decided.

The GOP still enjoys a higher number of "Safe Republican" seats. There are critical races in NC, LA, and AR. There are important races in MI, IA, AK.

Forewarned is forearmed. If you have better information, please share it.

[Capt. Obvious]

18. July 15, 2013

[cheapdate]

19. Yes, from July 15, 2013.

35 senate races for 2014.

8 "Safe Democrat" and 13 "Safe Republican" races. Critical "Toss Ups" in NC, LA, and AR. Important races in MI, IA, AK.

[mgcgulfcoast]

20. im not worried at all

not enough stupid people to vote republican.

[calguy]

21. I live in Arkansas

and I can assure you that there more than enough crazy people here to put repuke in the senate. At this would not bet a penny that the senate seat AR stays blue.

[mgcgulfcoast]

22. dont be pessimisstic

2014 will be good for us.