Despite Their Loss In Florida’s Special Election, Democrats Shouldn’t Panic Over November

[DonViejo]

Michael Tomasky

While the defeat of Alex Sink in Florida’s special election Tuesday night may be embarrassing for Democrats, they shouldn’t panic and run away from the electoral benefits of Obamacare.

So here we go: Republicans—and, no doubt, the Koch Brothers—are crowing that David Jolly’s win over Alex Sink in the special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District Tuesday proves that Obamacare is the death knell for Democrats this fall. Outside groups, led by the Kochs, pumped a few million into the district, largely hitting Sink over Obamacare, which she said needed to be improved although she still trumpeted its benefits for senior citizens.

Republicans will say more: that they had a flawed candidate in Jolly, a former lobbyist; that Barack Obama carried this district in 2012. The Republicans won’t say that Obama carried it over Mitt Romney by just 2 percent, and this is the very definition of a swing district. But both of these statements are factual, and Republicans will spin them hard today and tomorrow.

Most of all, Republican spin doctors will say this is a bellwether: The Democrats put loads of money and troops into Sink’s race, precisely to prove (in a winnable district) that 2014 wasn’t going to be a disaster for them. They still couldn’t win it, which, the GOP will say, just demonstrates what a bruisin’ Democrats are cruisin’ for this fall.

No denying, they might be right. For one thing, this was one of the few Republican-held House districts (held by lifer Bill Young, whose death necessitated this special) the Democrats had a shot at taking. So on that basis alone, it’s a blow to whatever remote shot Nancy Pelosi had of moving back into the Speaker’s office.

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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/12/despite-their-loss-in-florida-s-special-election-democrats-shouldn-t-panic-over-november.html

[AleksS]

1. Here's what I don't get

Here's what I don't get:

It was a seat held by a republican that continued to be held by a republican, that republicans and republican-supporting groups spent super--oodles of money on.

So the numbers didn't change, and a lot of money was spent. (Does anyone have compare/contrasts for Sink-supporting vs. Jolly-supporting expenditures?)

Is that worth crowing about? "Yay, we didn't lose!" would seem a more accurate way for the r's to phrase it--if the r's were interested in accuracy, that is.

Oh well. If they want to spend buckets of buckets of cash to maintain the status quo, then more power to them. They can't keep hemorrhaging money just to keep what they've got forever. And their supporters are dying faster and faster every day. Someday (soon I hope!) all the money in the world won't be enough. When they're down to the last angry white male voter, they can spend every dollar they have and it won't change the outcome.

[yeoman6987]

2. We wanted that seat bad

We spent more than the rejects by far.

[AleksS]

6. Direct spending, I believe

Direct spending, I guess that isn't surprising. (Though I didn't know it!)

But does that take into account outside spending? I know that's the way they tried to spin the recalls in WI--that D's outspent R's. But that was only true for direct campaign spending. When outside group spending was factored in, the numbers weren't even close, but in the other direction--r supporting groups outspent d's several-fold. It's like the pic of the day yesterday--one or two outsiders can spend as much or more than the candidates and DCCC combined.

Does anyone know those numbers? (I'm sincerely asking, since I'm nowhere near the FL area, and don't know the details.)

Thanks!

[Mayflower1]

3. I believe we outspent the Repugs 3 to 1.

The RNC gave up on their guy a month ago, thinking he would lose. Then special interest groups made it all about the ACA which apparently, brought Jolly over the finish line.

Also, there was a Libertarian who took votes from the Repub. So even though it was close between the R & D, it could have been worse if there wasn't a 3rd party.

I live in the district and I was shocked Alex Sink lost. She's a pretty popular Democrat in Florida, and especially in the Tampa Bay area.

This isn't good.

[packman]

4. Said it before

Republicans are motivated, they are angry people, they burn with the fire of ignorance and that gets them out of their homes and vote and then feel good about it feeling they have somehow saved the republic and got closer to Jesus. Democrats are too laid back . Except for national elections just do not want to get out of their lazy, complacent zone. "Piss on it," they say or think, " it's just a ( pick one - school board election, county seat election, local city election, etc.)". Repukes operate on too many different levels.

[yeoman6987]

8. I agree with you

Why doesn't the DNC just mention what is going on in Republican states, districts etc? I mean tell them that abortion centers are closing, that people are not getting insurance, that education is the worst in the country, that gay marriage is not happening in Republican areas, etc.

[Chestrockwell]

5. Rick Scott will be a huge motivation

Unless the Democrats sleep in again like they did this week. Most of the people really hate Scott which should bring out good voter turnout. I thought this one was in the bag so nothings for sure. Floridiots live up to my nick name more than not. How many positive news stories comes out of here? We usually win the most crazy state for good reason.

[bigwillq]

7. Too early to panic

A lot can happen between now and November

[quadrature]

9. you can't beat somebody with nobody...

except in Florida

[Hippo_Tron]

10. Special elections are special by definition, but I think we're still pretty fucked in November

[RBInMaine]

11. Please, enough of the silly dooming and glooming. God, too many progressives need an upper.