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CTyankee

(63,903 posts)
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 08:41 AM Mar 2014

If Dem failure to GOTV is the key to GOP wins in the midterms, why don't we do this...

find top three specific reasons for Dems not voting in stronger numbers in mid-terms. We can study this and get some data. Surely a study of districts that are more or less evenly divided Dem/GOP but went GOP in the 2010 midterm election would yield more specific information. Why don't we ask the Dem voter who showed up for 2008, but not 2010, and ask him/her for specific reasons they didn't vote, take the top 3 reasons and apply remedy to them? So if that voter cites 1)lack of information about the candidate, 2) lack of transportation to the polls and 3) lack of encouragement from the party in the way of a visit and a follow up call then we know where our efforts should be.

I've seen this happen in our local election to elect a new state Senator to replace the current one who was elected mayor of New Haven. Granted that his election was a slam dunk for the Dems, nonetheless I received specific information about the Dem running (I didn't know much about him) whose literature hit the sweet spot for Progressive female Dem voters on the candidate's strong, unequivocally pro-choice stand (and he was a male candidate), a visit by two different volunteers on two different occasions from the party and from the local chapter of a liberal advocacy group, and a follow up call reminding me to vote and asking if I needed a ride to the polls.

It seems to me that such an empirical study would yield useful and more specific information to better guide us in 2014, rather than just saying the generic "GOTV." I would hope this has already been done...

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Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
1. Your 'midterm turnout problem' is not universal among Democrats, it is a
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:23 AM
Mar 2014

regional and local phenomenon. This means wise Democrats with turnout problems could look to areas where Democrats do much better in midterms and apply some of those principles, systems and choices to their own districts and States.
Ever since 2010, I read these 'Democrats don't show up' posts and it burns a bit because my State, in 2010 set turnout records, elected lots of Democrats. Set records. California did well too, Brown defeated Whitman and all that cash, the State went ultra Blue majority. Washington also did well.
So when you say 'Democrats don't show up' without caveat, you are in fact mischaracterizing entire regions of good Democrats and in doing so driving right by the lessons which could so easily be learned.
If I had a nickel for every time I read in 2010 that turn out was low 'across the country' or 'coast to coast' I'd be wealthy, but that was never true. It was low in some places, places that ran 'moderates disguised as Republicans', places that have crappy election systems and places that naturally lean to the right. In those places, the voters lost were, generally speaking, independent moderates, the younger voters and minority voters.
It is not a huge mystery really.

CTyankee

(63,903 posts)
2. I know that ymmv depending on where you are. that's why I said "more or less evenly divided".
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:35 AM
Mar 2014

In heavily GOP districts/states we have a different problem. Even high turnout by Dems there won't win the election if we are simply outnumbered. Then we have to find out the message that persuades Independents and/or speak to GOP voters on issues that matter to them, e.g. Medicare and SS. We have to delineate the difference between Medicare and Medicare Advantage, for instance. We have to point to the peril of cutting Social Security. We have to target women voters on contraceptive coverage in the ACA. WE have to challenge repubs on what they offer to replace Obamacare and stick it to them e.g. pre-existing conditions (do we want to go back?).

You have identified other issues and I agree with you, esp. on "moderates disguised as Republican." It can be done.

freebrew

(1,917 posts)
3. A little different prolem here in MO.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:56 PM
Mar 2014

the paper came out last week listing candidates. There were 0 democrats. None running for anything.

So, I go vote for the US dems, but no one local, not even state senator or rep.
The local rag is run by RWNJs, can't get NPR anymore. There are dems here, but I don't know what would get them voting.

Any Dem candidate here would have to take on the NRA as well as Limbaugh, it's all uphill since McCaskill.

CTyankee

(63,903 posts)
4. The Dem Party simply must be better at developing more Democratic voters in those
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 02:19 PM
Mar 2014

areas. Your area is that challenge exactly!

CTyankee

(63,903 posts)
6. Yes, I understand. On the other side, we here in New Haven are one of those areas, luckily
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 05:41 PM
Mar 2014

for me (altho very nearby is East Haven, a redoubt of RW whites who think immigrants are scum, even tho they were once those same immigrants in the late 19th century!). It is sad and I know it must be of great concern to you.

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