How Rand Paul can win the 2016 presidential nomination

[DonViejo]

It's not a slam dunk. But it could definitely happen.

By Joe Gandelman | March 19, 2014

S
en. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) recently reinforced his emerging status as a legit 2016 contender, electrifying the base at the Conservative Political Action Conference and for the second time winning the CPAC straw poll. And like another freshman senator who came from nowhere to secure his party's presidential nomination in 2008, Paul is poised to make a strong run at the presidency.

It's early yet — and anything could happen in the roughly two years before GOP primary voters start casting presidential ballots. But already, Paul's path to a potential presidential nomination is becoming clear. Here, a brief look at how he could do it.

Get the momentum — and run with it: The libertarian Paul doesn't seem like a particularly Iowa-friendly candidate, so his first truly critical test would be to win the New Hampshire primary, where candidates with independent streaks often thrive, and which gets massive media coverage and can launch or destroy a candidate's presidential dreams. Paul is already off to a good start: He topped the WPA Opinion Research poll of attendees at the Northeast Republican Conference in Nashua. Meanwhile, CNN says Paul has already "done something his father never did — top the list of potential Republican presidential candidates in a national poll." A CNN/ORC poll finds that "16 percent of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they would be likely to support the senator from Kentucky for the 2016 nomination."

Woo disaffected and millennial voters: Many voters are disgusted with traditional and predictable partisan politics. Millennial voters in particular seem fed up with the status quo, and many define themselves as independents. And while the GOP has long struggled to attract young voters, the Paul brand of boutique libertarianism has appeal to millennials disillusioned by intrusive government surveillance and aggressive drone strikes. Paul could really boost his numbers in GOP contests if he's able to mobilize young voters who normally sit out the Republican primaries. And it's not that difficult to imagine how Paul's support could snowball if he can convince voters that he's truly a candidate of change. After all, if nominated, Paul would be the first GOP nominee whose ideology is genuinely anchored in libertarianism, with positions that often can't be neatly categorized.

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http://theweek.com/article/index/258078/how-rand-paul-can-win-the-2016-presidential-nomination

[Half-Century Man]

1. I was expecting something about a convenient meteor strike.

But, I suppose he has a chance..albeit a small one at this point.

[GatorOrange]

2. Democrats simply need to repeatedly point out his hard right Social Conservative Policies...

Rand Paul is the ultimate political mirage; a faux libertarian that is a Hard Right Republican on most issues. Especially when it comes to his views on Women's Choice. With Paul's repeated efforts to force through Fetal Personhood (even in a flood bill) legislation; it'll be easy to point out he is a "Keep Your Rapists Baby" social conservative dinosaur. Lumping Paul in with the Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, and Ken Kookinelli types will be fairly easy. Then just sit back and watch his support from the young, millennial, and women's voters fade fast.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

6. Not sure Rand would even want the job

He strikes me as a showboater and grifter like Sarah Palin. I think that he'd rather be in a position where he can make noise (and money) and grab the headlines without actually having to do much of anything. He may decide to make a run for it though, of course.

[Beacool]

3. Democrats should not underestimate Paul, Cruz or anyone else.

It would be a mistake to think that these folks don't have a chance at the nomination.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. Well, somebody's got to win the right (to lose)?

I have no idea who it might be and I'm certainly not ready to write anybody off. The only sign of some semblance of "sanity" returning to the GOP would be if they would nominate somebody like Jon Huntsman. I remember hearing back in 2012 that Santorum was in a strong position for 2016. Don't know if that still holds, of course. They have what appears to be a very weak presumptive field. I'm most worried about Jeb deciding to toss his hat in since he's got name recognition (though it's probably pretty tarnished by now), (likely) support from the establishment, and the resources to make a run. Of course, Mitt seems like he may be up for another round too.

[Blue Owl]

4. Shoulda released this article on April 1

n/t

[FSogol]

7. Laughably naive. Rand Paul will never get the nomination. n/t

[former9thward]

9. He got multiple standing ovations last night at Berkeley.

BERKELEY, Calif. — Delivering a rare speech for a Republican at this bastion of liberalism, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul on Wednesday was given multiple standing ovations by the left-wing audience after railing against government surveillance and warning the students: “Your right to privacy is under assault.”

“I am here to tell you that if you own a cell phone, you’re under surveillance,” he told the crowd.



Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/19/rand-paul-gets-standing-ovation-at-berkeley-your-right-to-privacy-is-under-assault/#ixzz2wXIs6lTv

[FSogol]

10. So?

[former9thward]

11. So, I think he could get the nomination and win.

I remember when people laughed at Reagan and hoped he would get the nomination against Carter in 1980.

[FSogol]

12. Libertarians are losers. Rand Paul and his tiny army of web-connected rubes will lose.

Reagan won because he promised a vision of a powerful America in the period following the Vietnam War. He promised cake for dinner. Many people remembered Reagan fondly from his movie work and didn't know much about the evil California governor. Carter and Mondale told us we better eat our vegetables and they lost.

Rand Paul has a vision of "no" and "we can't" for America and promises a confused mishmash of libertarian fantasies and contradictions. He inspires no one, but the greedy and antisocial. He'll never get the nomination and craftier repubs will make him look like a fool during the debates. Stock up on popcorn.

[XiaomuWave]

20. And...treason

The Pauls are a lot of things, but even they wouldnt (I dont think) stoop to negotiating with our enemies against a sitting President.

[FSogol]

21. Wanna bet? The Paul's would do anything for a buck. Just look at his Dad's white supremacy

newsletter.

[1Independent]

8. rand paul?

Mr. Paul throws all kinds of stuff at the crowds to see who'll catch it.

Frankly, most of what he has said is just nutty.

I think that as a candidate for change he would definitely change America----for the worst possible.

[bemildred]

13. US intelligence community is 'drunk with power': Sudden GOP rock star Rand Paul wows college

students at ultra-liberal UC Berkeley with an eye toward 2016

Republican Senator Rand Paul walked into enemy territory Wednesday night – the often-dubbed 'People's Republic' of Berkeley, California – and castigated America's spying apparatus before an unlikely constituency of well-wishers: college students from one of the most liberal universities in the U.S.

About 400 crowded into a UC Berkeley auditorium to hear the Kentucky civil libertarian rail against a National Security Agency that shows 'sheer arrogance,' and whose leaders are 'only sorry they got caught' when leaker Edward Snowden spilled his guts.

'No one on the [Senate] Intelligence Committee was even contrite,' Paul recalled, jabbing also at his colleagues. 'Their only regret was that the program was no longer secret.'

'Your rights, especially your right to privacy, are under assault,' he told the audience, in between stretches of sustained applause.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2584956/US-intelligence-community-drunk-power-Sudden-GOP-rock-star-Rand-Paul-wows-college-students-ultra-liberal-UC-Berkeley-eye-2016.html

[Dopers_Greed]

14. "Many voters are disgusted with traditional and predictable partisan politics."

Funny.

Because Rand Paul is one of the most partisan politicians out there.

[Jamaal510]

25. +1

[XiaomuWave]

15. His dad won zero states last run (not delegates, Virgin Islands isnt a state)

And he's gonna go from that track record to winning the nomination? Get real.

[sofa king]

16. He has a chance to win the NOMINATION....

But he's got fuck-all of a chance to win a Presidential election.

I've been boring all of you with the reasons why for years now.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=341720

But now, Politico has people writing about it, which makes it real, right?

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/sosnik-memo-republican-party-future-104749.html

The bottom line is this simple: all women, all minorities, and all the other victims of Republican marginalization plus me means that no Republican will ever again get close enough to steal another Presidential election.

Doug Sosnik points out that voters are only "disaffected" by Republicans, and young voters have broken Democratic in every Presidential election since 1992, meaning that even old fuckers like me are part of the permanent Democratic "youth movement"--what will be a 24-year long, permanent youth movement. The damned youth movement has its own children, now.

Gerrymandering and the traditional problems with Democratic turnout in off years will keep things tight this mid-term election and for the next several in the House, but after that, they're done, and assholes like Rand Paul are going to be scheming for ways to weasel into OUR party, because we're going to be the only game in town for a little while. If he gets in with the Dems, I leave, simple as that, and I hope the rest of you agree, because the time is going to come when we're going to have to turn people like Rand Paul away.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

17. Anybody else getting tired of all of these Republican strategy pieces

masquerading as "news"? Has anybody ever seen them give Democrats any free electoral advice or it always just about what Republicans can do to...........?

[sofa king]

18. Yes, I am tired of it!

One thing that amuses me is that most of them seem to be written with the assumption that Republicans are the majority, and it's just a matter of motivating voters, or finding them, or whatever.

They're simply not cognizant of the fact that they have killed off their voters, and that they haven't been creating new Republicans for decades.

Someday soon the tenor is going to change, and I mean quick, and it's going to go from arrogant hubris to frenzied panic as their very worst nightmare, President Hillary Clinton, is going to become a reality.

Then they'll know they fucked up.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

23. Yup

though the MSM may use that as their excuse to write more pieces about Republicans. It's insane. It seems like whenever we have Democratic Presidents, we hear more about/from Republicans and whenever we have Republican Presidents, we hear more about/from Republicans. During the Bush reign of error, we didn't see Gore and Kerry featured on news shows ad nauseum- certainly not the same way we seem cursed with endless media appearances and coverage of John McCain and Mitt Romney (and, of course, Sarah Palin). In this country, it seems like being Republican is default and being Democratic is some kind of aberration from "the norm". It's going to be baaaaad once the Republicans fade into electoral oblivion..............

[bemildred]

19. Rand Paul wows Berkeley. Can his anti-NSA fire draw youths to GOP?

Will Rand Paul be able to attract a substantial number of new young voters to the Republican Party? It’s become increasingly clear that may be one of his main political goals as the libertarian-leaning Kentucky senator looks towards a potential 2016 presidential run.

In his latest attempt at youth outreach, Senator Paul traveled to the famously liberal University of California at Berkeley on Wednesday to deliver a scathing speech warning of the dangers of unchecked National Security Agency surveillance.

“I’m not here to tell you what to be,” Paul told a crowded Berkeley auditorium. “But I am here to tell you ... that your rights, especially your right to privacy, [are] under assault.”

Invoking one of the talismans of the digital age, Paul told the audience that if they own a cell phone, they are under surveillance, as the NSA collects metadata such as time and number called on all US cellular communications.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Buzz/2014/0320/Rand-Paul-wows-Berkeley.-Can-his-anti-NSA-fire-draw-youths-to-GOP-video

[Proud Liberal Dem]

24. It's too bad that as a sitting US Senator he can't, you know, introduce legislation

Of course, that might mean that he might actually have to do work and less time for him to be out getting donations, etc.

[Sunlei]

22. worse case for the R clown show is millions in 'donations' with lots of lavish free travel.

nice paychecks for all his 'staff'.The laws let them 'suspend' the campaign whenever they wish, (or the larger Rs tell them to stop), and save the 'donations' for the 'next try'.

Wonder if he will pull that republican trick to grab campaign funds. Write some crappy book, price it real high- and then buy thousands of them with his campaign funds. Give the book away as campaign gifts and the author pockets lots of campaign funds.

[Jamaal510]

26. If he does

get the nomination, I can't wait for whomever our side's nominee is to point out the contradictions in his ideology. In other words, all the Democrat would have to do is shed light on how he claims to believe in the Constitution and freedom, but has supported voter ID laws that unnecessarily deprive certain people of one of their basic rights, and strictly opposes women's access to contraceptives. Right now, all most people see when it comes to the Pauls is "legalization" of weed (even though neither of them have ever come out in support of actual federal legalization), ending surveillance, and no more drones. Once more people see the fine print about Rand, though (especially when it comes to the social safety net), they'll still think of him as a candidate who will end the Status Quo--but for the worse.

[Gothmog]

27. The money people who control the GOP will not let Rand Paul become the nominee

The money people did not like Ron Paul and I doubt that they will accept Rand Paul. I expect the money people to either talk Jeb into running or they may recycle Romney